Alright, lets talk about actual baseball. Which young player are you more worried about regressing next year?

[Juliooooo]

Thanks for starting the new thread, Juliooo.

I thought about this, and I have to look at it carefully, as I was ready to mistake 'regressing' with 'not improving', and it's easy for me to mistake the latter for the former.

At the present time, I'd probably say Sheffield.

Kikuchi, I think is a lost cause as a starter (unless someone in the front office eats crow and moves him to the 4 or 5 slot in the rotation, before being assigned to the bullpen) so I can't count him as 'regressing', since he never met (my) expectations as a starter in the first place. (Again), He now should be targeted as an overpriced bullpen option where, maybe, his morse-code flashes of dominance can be better matched to situational matchups, rather than attempting to slog through 100 pitches of entertaining the gods of baseball into a 'thumbs up' or 'thumbs down' decision. Dunn holds his own, I believe, much better than Kikuchi does, and shows poise, intelligence and talent.

Any regression on his part would hurt, but not as much, IMO, if Sheffield lapsed into his 2019 form.

yeah, I did say "worry about" which is not so much who you think will do it, but which would be more of a problem in your mind. Sheffield could easily lose the command that he had, and could have a huge drop off. I do think he's figured it out though, and his confidence is through the roof, so right now, I guess I'm just not that worried. KLew came as such a surprise early in the season, I just worry it was a flash in the pan. He could easily regress, but I also think he could improve the most out of those listed too. I have no idea where he will end up as a player. He could be an MVP candidate, or he could be a barely above average OF with occasionaly hot streaks. I think we have a better idea with the other 3. Moore is a starting 2B or very capable utility guy. Sheffield is a #3-#4 starter. Dunn is a #5 starter or reliever.

[Hanjag]

Kikuchi was 0.1, he might not even reach 1.1 over the course of his career.

I've got to go with Dunn on regressing too. The only way he can even be moderately successful is if he nibbles and that's really hard to sustain.

I think you are talking BWAR vs FWAR for them. but 1.1 per 162 is really good considering the 6 man vs 5 man.

Just scaling up 60 to 162 for a 6-man in 2021 is a 3 WAR pace and on a 5 man /162 pace you scale that up to 3.5 FWAR.
Remember his fip was in the low 2's and fip is a greater predicter of future ERA than ERA.

[Lincoln2207]

"Anyway, just wanted to talk about actual baseball in the baseball forum for some reason."

Thank you, Julio, what a relief. At the risk of starting up another shit storm, I want to say I'm furious with several of you for dumping on the forum the way you did. In case you haven't noticed, several long-time reliable posters haven't said a word since a very few of you spewed hatred on what is supposed to be a BASEBALL forum. Most noticeable in his absence about all this hateful talk about the virus is the only doctor in the forum, Sexy. Gee, why do you think that is? Maybe it is because what most of you vomited out was ridiculous from a scientific point of view.

It is remarkable to me that people who can be so intelligent about baseball can be so arrogant, ignorant, and stupid about politics. Amazing. Of those who posted about the virus, I think only Darren and Terry know me personally, and I've got to say I am really disappointed in you.

So I welcome a return to our beloved sport.

[bpj]

"Anyway, just wanted to talk about actual baseball in the baseball forum for some reason."

Thank you, Julio, what a relief. At the risk of starting up another shit storm, I want to say I'm furious with several of you for dumping on the forum the way you did. In case you haven't noticed, several long-time reliable posters haven't said a word since a very few of you spewed hatred on what is supposed to be a BASEBALL forum. Most noticeable in his absence about all this hateful talk about the virus is the only doctor in the forum, Sexy. Gee, why do you think that is? Maybe it is because what most of you vomited out was ridiculous from a scientific point of view.

It is remarkable to me that people who can be so intelligent about baseball can be so arrogant, ignorant, and stupid about politics. Amazing. Of those who posted about the virus, I think only Darren and Terry know me personally, and I've got to say I am really disappointed in you.

So I welcome a return to our beloved sport.

Look at Mr. Soapbox, doing exactly what you're bitching about because you're a lib and used to getting away with saying anything and going unchallenged, because its not a problem when YOU want to come toss your opinion in-, just another dim light that thinks you're right about the virus in the face of all the evidence.

Sexy is probably embarrassed for the false hysteria he helped perpetuate among you CNN zombies.

Get a clue, you people got played.

[Juliooooo]

Welp, there goes this thread.

[Hanjag]

I am really not worried about Dunn what so ever he is not really part of my future rotation with out dealing from pitching.
Marco-Justus-Kik
Coming soon
Gilbert-Hancock-Kirby

Until then he is a cheap BOR and likely BP.

But
Moore really showed his worth with power, speed, positional versatility (He can play SS, 2b, 3B, OF, and even 1B DH. The caviet here is that was 38 games and like KLEW he might be a day away from being "booked".

KLEW now has 277 MLB ABS of .264/.347/.477 triple slash good for a 128 OPS+. 2019 he had way more ISO vs 2020 where he had more OBP. Home he had a .952 OPS vs .709 on the road
Over his last 21 starts he went .147 .270 .280 .550 and had a .200 BABIP

Justus had a 3.58 ERA and a 3.17 fip!

I am more inclined to be worried about Moore because if you have a Ben Zobrist that can play SS to with a 140 OPS+ and leads the league in SB that is a MVP candidate. Remember he did that on only 39 games played and thanks bean balls to the head.

KLew even when he slumped was walking at a .123 rate
He ranked as a middle of the pack defender in center

I gotta at leats mention JP he improved his D top top 5 in many categories. and his BWAR/600 was at 4.2
His ISO dropped off but average and OBP were up keep the OBP and add a little slugging and we have an all-star

France 129 OPS+ bat at 2nd 3rd ( 1B-DH) I am pretty confident he has a plus bat

Torrens a 97 OPS bat from a 24 year old catcher .254/.323

Lots to be hopeful for continued development and of course some worries about regression. But as a whole I have more hope the worry.

[Hanjag]

"Anyway, just wanted to talk about actual baseball in the baseball forum for some reason."

Thank you, Julio, what a relief. At the risk of starting up another shit storm, I want to say I'm furious with several of you for dumping on the forum the way you did. In case you haven't noticed, several long-time reliable posters haven't said a word since a very few of you spewed hatred on what is supposed to be a BASEBALL forum. Most noticeable in his absence about all this hateful talk about the virus is the only doctor in the forum, Sexy. Gee, why do you think that is? Maybe it is because what most of you vomited out was ridiculous from a scientific point of view.

It is remarkable to me that people who can be so intelligent about baseball can be so arrogant, ignorant, and stupid about politics. Amazing. Of those who posted about the virus, I think only Darren and Terry know me personally, and I've got to say I am really disappointed in you.

So I welcome a return to our beloved sport.

I am a Pharm D student. I don't know it all but I am running heavy hours to learn. I will say people have a right to be critical of expert opinion firing super-scary stat expectations and being way off the mark.

[Lincoln2207]

"Anyway, just wanted to talk about actual baseball in the baseball forum for some reason."

Thank you, Julio, what a relief. At the risk of starting up another shit storm, I want to say I'm furious with several of you for dumping on the forum the way you did. In case you haven't noticed, several long-time reliable posters haven't said a word since a very few of you spewed hatred on what is supposed to be a BASEBALL forum. Most noticeable in his absence about all this hateful talk about the virus is the only doctor in the forum, Sexy. Gee, why do you think that is? Maybe it is because what most of you vomited out was ridiculous from a scientific point of view.

It is remarkable to me that people who can be so intelligent about baseball can be so arrogant, ignorant, and stupid about politics. Amazing. Of those who posted about the virus, I think only Darren and Terry know me personally, and I've got to say I am really disappointed in you.

So I welcome a return to our beloved sport.

I am a Pharm D student. I don't know it all but I am running heavy hours to learn. I will say people have a right to be critical of expert opinion firing super-scary stat expectations and being way off the mark.

Thank you, Hanjag, that is a post I can respect. It is not the disagreement I'm complaining about and certainly not a critical perspective, it is the personal attack, the name-calling, and the bullying that in my mind is the problem.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

I'm not worried about Sheffield at all. I like pitchers that own their style and learn how to dominate with it. He has. Sheff isn't "figuring it out" anymore...

Dunn on the other hand still is... I don't think he's got a great idea of what to do with his secondary pitches. He struggles to throw them for strikes when he's not confident. Too often he gets into "I can't throw a strike mode" and when you look at a guy like Kikuchi that scares you... too prone to falling off a cliff instead of knowing you have the ability to pitch out of it. Dunn would be one of my picks...

I think White will come in a new man. His tools are too good... I actually think not having a full ST and then sitting around for a while hurt him. In ST he was hitting .333/.370/.458...

Kyle scares me a for a couple reasons. He only hit 3 doubles in 242 plate appearances. For a guy with an .800+ OPS that's gotta be some kind of record. Tells me he doesn't square it up consistently enough... he was basically a base-hit machine until even those weren't falling. He appeared to totally lose it in the final 20 games of the season... swing and a miss rate went WAY up. He stopped staying on the curve ball and driving it to right field... seemed to get pull happy... needs to stay up the middle and not pull off it. Also seemed like he went from a very confident hitter to someone who was guessing every pitch. He looked like he was way more comfortable taking walks than swinging the bat. That said, I love his makeup... he's talented and smart which will carry you a long way. I think the ROY victory has gotta give him confidence going forward.

Dylan Moore on the other hand does not scare me. I love his approach at the plate... he's a scrapper and he hits pitches he's not supposed to which makes him a nightmare... there's really no way to pitch to him that's totally effective. I also don't see his sneaky pop disappearing. He reminds me a lot of Mark Cahna... Gonna perform with a bat in his hand even though you don't really expect him to.

[Juliooooo]

I'm not worried about Sheffield at all. I like pitchers that own their style and learn how to dominate with it. He has. Sheff isn't "figuring it out" anymore...

Dunn on the other hand still is... I don't think he's got a great idea of what to do with his secondary pitches. He struggles to throw them for strikes when he's not confident. Too often he gets into "I can't throw a strike mode" and when you look at a guy like Kikuchi that scares you... too prone to falling off a cliff instead of knowing you have the ability to pitch out of it. Dunn would be one of my picks...

I think White will come in a new man. His tools are too good... I actually think not having a full ST and then sitting around for a while hurt him. In ST he was hitting .333/.370/.458...

Kyle scares me a for a couple reasons. He only hit 3 doubles in 242 plate appearances. For a guy with an .800+ OPS that's gotta be some kind of record. Tells me he doesn't square it up consistently enough... he was basically a base-hit machine until even those weren't falling. He appeared to totally lose it in the final 20 games of the season... swing and a miss rate went WAY up. He stopped staying on the curve ball and driving it to right field... seemed to get pull happy... needs to stay up the middle and not pull off it. Also seemed like he went from a very confident hitter to someone who was guessing every pitch. He looked like he was way more comfortable taking walks than swinging the bat. That said, I love his makeup... he's talented and smart which will carry you a long way. I think the ROY victory has gotta give him confidence going forward.

Dylan Moore on the other hand does not scare me. I love his approach at the plate... he's a scrapper and he hits pitches he's not supposed to which makes him a nightmare... there's really no way to pitch to him that's totally effective. I also don't see his sneaky pop disappearing. He reminds me a lot of Mark Cahna... Gonna perform with a bat in his hand even though you don't really expect him to.

good post. I will say this though, everything you said about Dunn could have been said about Sheffield last year. Don't know if I should credit the developmental staff more, or just sheffield. I do think that I trust this team to give every pitcher a really good chance of reaching their potential. I look at this season as a AAA on steroids for White and Dunn. Their real evaluation comes in what they can do next year.