Kikuchi and his contract

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Kikuchi and his contract

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:41 pm

Evidently we have a big decision at the end of 2021

https://prospectinsider.com/expensive-a ... o-in-2021/

If he doesn’t improve there should be no reason to exercise the option that we will be faced with

He gets 16.5M this yr and it can turn not an additional 4 yrs at $66M
Kikuchi, who receives $16.5 million next year, has a unique set of contract clauses. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Mariners must determine within three days after the 2021 World Series whether to exercise their option on Kikuchi. Normally, options cover one year. However, his includes four years through the 2025 season. It’s a take it or leave it deal for the team – nothing or all four years valued at $66 million.

But there’s more.

If Seattle declines its option, Kikuchi has until five days after the Fall Classic to exercise a player option for 2022 paying him $14.5 million dollars. If both parties decline their respective options, he becomes a free agent.
Sometimes Jerry doesn’t use his brain

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D-train
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:11 pm

The decision to not exercise will be as easy for the M's as the decision to exercise will be for KK so we are stuck with him for another 2 seasons minimum. And yes, it was a brainless contract for a guy that had not only never pitched in the US but wasn't even all that impressive in Japan especially only 5 minutes into a rebuild. It was a far worse decision than not trading Haniger for example.
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harmony
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by harmony » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:23 pm

Coeurd’Alene J wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:41 pm
Evidently we have a big decision at the end of 2021

https://prospectinsider.com/expensive-a ... o-in-2021/

If he doesn’t improve there should be no reason to exercise the option that we will be faced with

He gets 16.5M this yr and it can turn not an additional 4 yrs at $66M
Kikuchi, who receives $16.5 million next year, has a unique set of contract clauses. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Mariners must determine within three days after the 2021 World Series whether to exercise their option on Kikuchi. Normally, options cover one year. However, his includes four years through the 2025 season. It’s a take it or leave it deal for the team – nothing or all four years valued at $66 million.

But there’s more.

If Seattle declines its option, Kikuchi has until five days after the Fall Classic to exercise a player option for 2022 paying him $14.5 million dollars. If both parties decline their respective options, he becomes a free agent.
Sometimes Jerry doesn’t use his brain
The creatively strucrtured contract serves the interests of each party ... and perhaps is too complex for some fans.

A month after the Red Sox signed Nathan Eovaldi to a four-year, $68 million contract, the Mariners signed the younger Yusei Kikuchi to a contract that guarantees the lefthander only $56 million over four years. Kikuchi has since outperformed Eovaldi although each has disappointed.

The four-year post-2021 team option left open the possibility that the Mariners could lock down Kikuchi if the lefthander produced like Yu Darvish. Short of that the M's could walk away after 2022 when (by no coincidence) Logan Gilbert, Emerson Hancock and/or George Kirby should be ready.

Jerry Dipoto deserves some credit on this one.

FWIW Steamer projects Kikuchi with 2021 WAR of 2.3 in 29 starts. This year 2.3 fWAR was valued at $18.6 million.

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Petert
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by Petert » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:37 pm

Eovaldi's contract was based on proven ability, though. Kikuchi's was a roll of the dice, not knowing how he would perform in MLB. The gamble was much bigger on the latter. You can laugh, but I think Kikuchi's contract was based in part on Shoei Ohtani's rejection of Seattle, and the front office's willingness to pony up a chunk of cash to prove we were still viable in attracting Japanese talent. Just sayin'.

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D-train
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:41 pm

His fWAR gives me hope as it is predictive of the future but there is no amount of spin in the world that will convince me that he has been worth his salary the first two years and I sure the M's would agree as does his past performance based bWAR of 0.5 and 0.1 for 2018 and 2019.

More importantly, we simply did not need him the past two year given we weren't even trying to compete so paying an FA anything more and a couple mil a year was a mistake. Even if he won two Cy Youngs it would have been a waste of funds that might have been reallocated to future budget.
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D-train
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:41 pm

Petert wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:37 pm
Eovaldi's contract was based on proven ability, though. Kikuchi's was a roll of the dice, not knowing how he would perform in MLB. The gamble was much bigger on the latter. You can laugh, but I think Kikuchi's contract was based in part on Shoei Ohtani's rejection of Seattle, and the front office's willingness to pony up a chunk of cash to prove we were still viable in attracting Japanese talent. Just sayin'.
Totally agree.
dt

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:19 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:41 pm
His fWAR gives me hope as it is predictive of the future but there is no amount of spin in the world that will convince me that he has been worth his salary the first two years and I sure the M's would agree as does his past performance based bWAR of 0.5 and 0.1 for 2018 and 2019.

More importantly, we simply did not need him the past two year given we weren't even trying to compete so paying an FA anything more and a couple mil a year was a mistake. Even if he won two Cy Youngs it would have been a waste of funds that might have been reallocated to future budget.
He simply has been bad. $16.5 M down the tube

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D-train
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:52 pm

Coeurd’Alene J wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:19 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:41 pm
His fWAR gives me hope as it is predictive of the future but there is no amount of spin in the world that will convince me that he has been worth his salary the first two years and I sure the M's would agree as does his past performance based bWAR of 0.5 and 0.1 for 2018 and 2019.

More importantly, we simply did not need him the past two year given we weren't even trying to compete so paying an FA anything more and a couple mil a year was a mistake. Even if he won two Cy Youngs it would have been a waste of funds that might have been reallocated to future budget.
He simply has been bad. $16.5 M down the tube
$26M $10M in 2019 and $16M in 2020. And now they say they only want to spend money on relievers because of financial Covid related uncertainty.
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DavidGee24
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by DavidGee24 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:17 am

You know, Ben Richards warned us about what was going to happen with that contract. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oWg-VFEJRYY

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Petert
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Re: Kikuchi and his contract

Post by Petert » Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:01 am

If Yusei doesn’t already have a nickname, I would submit “The Albatross”.

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