Early look at MLB and Japanese FAs

[D-train]

This one thinks more in the range I suggested:

Among relatively recent free agent contracts for outfielders ROUGHLY in Bellinger’s tier of performance, you see a range in average annual values (AAV) from a low of $18 million up to $26 million, and you see a range in guarantees from a low of $90 million to about $180 million. That said, I’m not sure this pool necessarily captures Bellinger’s value as a premium defensive center fielder (who can also play premium defense at first base, even within the same game), who will be only 28 on Opening Day next year.

There are counters, of course – Bellinger’s last two seasons were truly abysmal, there are health risks, his contact quality metrics don’t look anything like his actual results, etc. – but we’re just trying to get a sense of a reasonable, or even aggressive, ask for a guy who is among the best bats available.

If you widen the scope to include extensions and infielders, again, in Bellinger’s general tier, you can get that AAV range to something more like $20 million to $30 million, and the guarantee range to something more like $140 million to $250 million, but you’re really starting to push the boundary of fair comps at that high end.

A very aggressive ask for Bellinger and Boras, then, would be something like a $30 million AAV and a $210 million guarantee, which would come to a seven-year deal. My guess is Boras will seek something that tops even that, but let’s say that the historical comps say that’d be a pretty strong get for Bellinger.

[D-train]

His career numbers are .258/.831 with an average of 3.5 WAR per season. That is what I would base his pay on. 3.5 WAR = $28M per season.

7 x 28 = $196M

[Seattle or Bust]

His career numbers are .258/.831 with an average of 3.5 WAR per season. That is what I would base his pay on. 3.5 WAR = $28M per season.

7 x 28 = $196M

The unfortunate reality is you're paying for his 2023 season as it shows he has the potential to be the player he was in 2017 and 2019 when he won ROY and MVP.

Some team out there will give him a contract that far exceeds his avg WAR value.

[bpj]

If they can't get Alonso or Ohtani I hope they avoid the market completely.

Everyone else is too big of a question mark imo.

This crew has been killing it since the break.

They need to get Dylan Moore more playing time. He has the same WAR in his 138 plate appearances as Ty France has in 600.

Jose Caballero has as much WAR in 250 plate appearances as Teoscar Hernandez does in 612.

Dipoto just needs to get out of his own way at this point. Stop making moves to make moves and let these guys play.

Teo:
612 PA, 25 HR, 65 R, 85 RBI, 6 SB, 2.0 WAR

France:
600 PA, 10 HR, 73 R, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 0.5 WAR

Caballero/Ford/Moore:
635 PA, 26 HR, 79 R, 76 RBI, 32 SB, 3.2 WAR

Are you concern Bellinger puts on an M's uni and goes in the tank again?

I think Bellinger turning back into a pumpkin would be a near certainty in Seattle, especially by the end of his contract.

Given the choice, Teoscars right handed bat fits the team better than Bellingers.

But, the guy I think fits best (without opening their wallets) would be a trade for Tyler O'Neill. He's not expensive. Which means he's not a risk to be given playing time he hasn't earned, which has to be a main concern with these bozos.

A right handed outfield bat to add to Kelenic/Marlowe/Trammell/Canzone that won't cost an arm and a leg and is a bounceback candidate on a team that may want to be rid of him..

I'd rather see them go after someone like Bellinger was last year, under the radar, cheap, not after his breakout.

[D-train]

If they can't get Alonso or Ohtani I hope they avoid the market completely.

Everyone else is too big of a question mark imo.

This crew has been killing it since the break.

They need to get Dylan Moore more playing time. He has the same WAR in his 138 plate appearances as Ty France has in 600.

Jose Caballero has as much WAR in 250 plate appearances as Teoscar Hernandez does in 612.

Dipoto just needs to get out of his own way at this point. Stop making moves to make moves and let these guys play.

Teo:
612 PA, 25 HR, 65 R, 85 RBI, 6 SB, 2.0 WAR

France:
600 PA, 10 HR, 73 R, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 0.5 WAR

Caballero/Ford/Moore:
635 PA, 26 HR, 79 R, 76 RBI, 32 SB, 3.2 WAR

Are you concern Bellinger puts on an M's uni and goes in the tank again?

I think Bellinger turning back into a pumpkin would be a near certainty in Seattle, especially by the end of his contract.

Given the choice, Teoscars right handed bat fits the team better than Bellingers.

But, the guy I think fits best (without opening their wallets) would be a trade for Tyler O'Neill. He's not expensive. Which means he's not a risk to be given playing time he hasn't earned, which has to be a main concern with these bozos.

A right handed outfield bat to add to Kelenic/Marlowe/Trammell/Canzone that won't cost an arm and a leg and is a bounceback candidate on a team that may want to be rid of him..

I'd rather see them go after someone like Bellinger was last year, under the radar, cheap, not after his breakout.

I am sure Stanton agrees..... I don't care about saving money and am not going to give these cheap bastards any breaks.

From the right side we will still have Cal vs. LHPs, France, Moore, Cabby, Geno and of course Julio. The four lefty bats you mentioned mashed together might turn out one average corner OFer. The only true lefty starter we have is JP. We need LH bats more than RH bats just like last off season. Bellinger could either play 1B kicking France to DH and then you could trade for TO for a COFer spot or put Bellinger in COFer and trade for Alonso. I not going to be happy with all dumpster dives and half measures again. Teo turned out ok but still only going to end up with 2.5 WAR which is a downgrade from Healthy Mitch in 2021. (3.1 WAR)

[D-train]

Credit to Jason for inspiring this tweet.

https://twitter.com/DarrenTrain/status/ ... 6521549914

[D-train]

If they would have give the ~1000 PAs they gave to the external acquisitions to the guys already here we would likely have a 2-3 game lead in the division.

[bpj]

I don't think Bellinger will be worth half what he gets paid so I wouldn't be making him much of an offer. I wouldn't bet on him to put up an OPS over .750 as a Mariner.

I would be fearful of a Jason Heyward outcome from Bellinger. He has shown more power than Heyward, and less defense, but their career numbers are pretty comparable, and I wouldn't feel $150M worth of confident that the power follows him to Seattle.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... eason=2023

O'Neill is on one year, ~$5M and had a falling out with his team, so I think he's an actual option.

Not really about letting them off easy this offseason. I just don't think anyone's worth paying for on the free agent market besides Ohtani. Alonso would be the best trade target.

But a package of Goldschmidt and O'Neill may be about the best we can hope for imo. It's such a thin market.

Dipoto missed a huge opportunity to add bats the last two offseasons. Now the market is barren.

[Big_Maple]

I don't think Bellinger will be worth half what he gets paid so I wouldn't be making him much of an offer. I wouldn't bet on him to put up an OPS over .750 as a Mariner.

O'Neill is on one year, ~$5M and had a falling out with his team, so I think he's an actual option.

Not really about letting them off easy this offseason. I just don't think anyone's worth paying for on the free agent market besides Ohtani. Alonso would be the best trade target.

But a package of Goldschmidt and O'Neill may be about the best we can hope for imo. It's such a thin market.

Dipoto missed a huge opportunity to add bats the last two offseasons. Now the market is barren.

OK, so this is not without controversy, but I would go all in on Matt Chapman next year. He'll be a FA and only 30 years old. He has had a slightly less impressive defensive year with the Jays, but overall he is one of the best defensive 3B in the game (multiple gold and platinum glove winner). Moreover, his offense ticked up this year (.247/.428/.766) even though he only hit 15 dingers. But that's good for nearly 4 WAR this season - compare that to Geno's 1.7 WAR and slash line (.232/.388/.713) and you have a serious upgrade. He'd cost less than Arenado (less in the sense that it won't cost us anything in trade).

I don't know what to do with Geno, but I was sorry we missed out on Chapman 2 years ago - now that he'll be a FA, I'd say we see if we can bundle Geno in trade and lock in Chapman for 3 or 4 years. We've only got Geno for 1 more year before he has a club option and then free agency. I'd rather have Chapman at the hot corner. But that's just me.

He just has to shave that shitty little middle school mustache.

[Donn Beach]

Here is a pretty good look at Tyler O'Neil's trade value. He has a hard time staying on the field
https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/bern ... ead-hurts/