Yeah PCs game plans are fine. Nothing to see here.

DavidGee24
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Re: Yeah PCs game plans are fine. Nothing to see here.

Post by DavidGee24 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:58 pm

DanielVogelbach wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:34 pm
DavidGee24 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:40 am
Yet the Titans went on the road and throttled the Ravens and the Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead on the Chiefs. Apparently you can get off to a good start against a high seed.
You can get off to a good start. You can sometimes even win the game. But, winning a divisional round game as the road team is definitely one of the more difficult things to pull off in pro sports. The first half statistics may speak to Pete's preparation and gameplans for these games. However, it obviously also speaks to the strength of the opponents and the value of the bye week as well.
That's really barely even true. Peyton Manning's Colt teams dropped a few home playoff games after taking a week, and sometimes two, off. And oh by the way, the #1 seed Ravens got stomped at home.

The Packers aren't that good. They got obliterated twice in the second half of the season and with a high seed on the line barely were able to get past the Lions who were playing their backup quarterback.

DanielVogelbach
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Re: Yeah PCs game plans are fine. Nothing to see here.

Post by DanielVogelbach » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:24 pm

DavidGee24 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:58 pm
DanielVogelbach wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:34 pm
DavidGee24 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:40 am
Yet the Titans went on the road and throttled the Ravens and the Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead on the Chiefs. Apparently you can get off to a good start against a high seed.
You can get off to a good start. You can sometimes even win the game. But, winning a divisional round game as the road team is definitely one of the more difficult things to pull off in pro sports. The first half statistics may speak to Pete's preparation and gameplans for these games. However, it obviously also speaks to the strength of the opponents and the value of the bye week as well.
That's really barely even true. Peyton Manning's Colt teams dropped a few home playoff games after taking a week, and sometimes two, off. And oh by the way, the #1 seed Ravens got stomped at home.

The Packers aren't that good. They got obliterated twice in the second half of the season and with a high seed on the line barely were able to get past the Lions who were playing their backup quarterback.
Run the numbers. Your examples are the outliers. I agree Packers were beatable. Same thing with 9ers or any AFC team. Hawks had a shot at the Lombardi for sure.

DavidGee24
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Re: Yeah PCs game plans are fine. Nothing to see here.

Post by DavidGee24 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:30 pm

I ran the numbers, and not outliers at all. Road playoff teams actually win more often than you'd think. For example, 4-4 so far this year. Now go ahead, make up something else.
Last edited by DavidGee24 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DanielVogelbach
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Re: Yeah PCs game plans are fine. Nothing to see here.

Post by DanielVogelbach » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:30 pm

I looked it up. Home teams since 2003 have won 67% of the NFL divisional round games. Try finding that level of dominance for any other team sport playoff game.

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/gamb ... story.html

DavidGee24
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Re: Yeah PCs game plans are fine. Nothing to see here.

Post by DavidGee24 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:32 pm

Most of those 33% are teams that barely made the playoffs and didn't have the weapon that this year's Titans have. The Seahawk teams we've had shouldn't be losing these games every year.

DanielVogelbach
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Re: Yeah PCs game plans are fine. Nothing to see here.

Post by DanielVogelbach » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:46 pm

DavidGee24 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:32 pm
Most of those 33% are teams that barely made the playoffs and didn't have the weapon that this year's Titans have. The Seahawk teams we've had shouldn't be losing these games every year.
I disagree. I think the 33% are drawing favorable matchups. Say the #1 seed lost their QB or conversely the #6 seed had their QB come back in week 12 and then went undefeated. Those are extreme examples, but they illustrate the point.

I think the Bears game with Hasselbeck was almost an automatic loss. Matt Ryan round 1 was maybe a winnable game, but I certainly can't say we "should've" won. The Carolina game where Lynch came back from sports hernia... that was a touch matchup... definitely an L on paper. Matt Ryan round 2.. winnable maybe, but also very tough. They were only down 19-10 at half in that one. Really, the one they probably had the best chance to win was this last one versus Green Bay.

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