CFP ranking thread

[Fungo]

Sounds like Oregon is screwed if both FSU and Alabama win this week-end. Of course, if Oregon was playing FSU in a game they would be huge favorites but this supposedly advanced CFP ranking system would put them behind the Seminoles. Just like Oregon being 10 point favorites vs UW despite being ranked two places behind them. The general public understands that there are better ways to evaluate teams than just looking at their record.

I think Oregon has enough motivation to kick our butts without the likelihood that they might miss out even with a win over the Huskies. They will have to blowout the Dawgs to assure a spot if Alabama and FSU wins. It makes my skin crawl when I say this but I think I would like to see Oregon in the playoffs if they beat us. I don't know why, but I think I would. I don't like their coach and I don't like Phil Knight but I do like Bo Nix. I should probably see a therapist.

[D-train]

Sounds like Oregon is screwed if both FSU and Alabama win this week-end. Of course, if Oregon was playing FSU in a game they would be huge favorites but this supposedly advanced CFP ranking system would put them behind the Seminoles. Just like Oregon being 10 point favorites vs UW despite being ranked two places behind them. The general public understands that there are better ways to evaluate teams than just looking at their record.

I think Oregon has enough motivation to kick our butts without the likelihood that they might miss out even with a win over the Huskies. They will have to blowout the Dawgs to assure a spot if Alabama and FSU wins. It makes my skin crawl when I say this but I think I would like to see Oregon in the playoffs if they beat us. I don't know why, but I think I would. I don't like their coach and I don't like Phil Knight but I do like Bo Nix. I should probably see a therapist.

If we barely lose and Alabama and Texas lose, Ohio St. better not jump us while sitting home licking their wounds....

[Michael K.]

Ohio State is a team that could do that though, based on perception. Alabama did it a few years ago. I am not sure, but I feel someone else has too. It’s not unprecedented.

[Captain 97]

Ohio State is a team that could do that though, based on perception. Alabama did it a few years ago. I am not sure, but I feel someone else has too. It’s not unprecedented.

That was 2017 when Alabama did that. Wisconsin was ranked 4th at 12-0 going into the Big 10 championship but lost against a lower Ranked 10-2 Ohio State team. At that point they couldn't keep Wisconsin in over Ohio State so it became a question of whether a 11-2 Big 10 champ should get in or a 11-1 Alabama team that didn't play for the SEC championship.

That would be pretty analogous to FSU's situation if they lose to Louisville. I think we would be in a little bit better position since our loss would be to a team that would be in the playoff.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

If the media execs had their way the 4 teams would be Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St, and Michigan.

[D-train]

More confirmation that the 4 team format is the 3rd most idiotic idea in College sports history after voting for a NC and the two team format.

By Matt Calkins
Seattle Times columnist
It’s unlikely the question is on any Huskies fan’s mind right now. To them, any bias against their league becomes moot with a win over Oregon on Friday.

But is it possible that if the Ducks beat Washington in the conference title game Friday, they still get locked out of the College Football Playoff? In its final year as we know it, could the Pac-12 go unrepresented in the final four?

Here’s a question I asked a few people the past couple days: Who’s out? 13-0 Michigan, 13-0 Florida State, 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Texas (who beat Bama) or 12-1 Oregon?

This will become a lot more than a hypothetical if each of those five teams wins its conference championship games. Except there’s another wrinkle: An Alabama win in the SEC title game would mean Georgia, the College Football Playoff committee’s top-ranked team and two-time defending national champion, would also be 12-1. Is it possible that, barring a blowout loss, the Bulldogs are already in?

Under the aforementioned scenario, Michigan would obviously make the playoff. I think Florida State would, too, but have heard arguments that the Seminoles should be axed. After all, if the committee is looking for the four best teams, do you include a squad whose starting quarterback (Jordan Travis) suffered a season-ending injury two Saturdays ago?

I think yes. You have to go based on accomplishment, not projection. Plus, as a recently retired Times sports columnist pointed out to me — Ohio State lost starting quarterback J.T. Barrett in late 2014, but the committee still included the Buckeyes, who won the national title with Cardale Jones. FSU is in, as long as it defeats Louisville in the ACC title game.

Now it starts to get tricky. If ‘Bama beats Georgia, it would be a one-loss team with the best win in the country. Its only loss will have been to Texas, which is seventh in the CFP standings. Plus, the SEC has won 13 of the past 17 national championships, with the titles spread out over five schools. No way you leave out the Tide knowing that, right? It’s the same reason some feel Georgia could still sneak in.

Except the Longhorns are going, “We beat the Tide! By 10 points! In Tuscaloosa!” The CFP selection criteria clearly states that head-to-head results should be a factor when comparing teams with similar records. Well, if Texas — whose sole loss came in overtime to No. 12 Oklahoma — bests 19th-ranked Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, it would have an identical record to Alabama’s. How would you explain to the folks in Austin that they’re out if ‘Bama is in?

Meanwhile, you have Oregon, which the CFP committee clearly likes. It has the Ducks ranked fifth — two spots above Texas and three above Alabama. Oregon has been crushing everyone since losing to Washington in mid-October. And a win Friday would be over the No. 3 team in the country.

Two potential issues, though. The first — Alabama beating Georgia would impress the committee a whole lot more than Oregon beating a Huskies team that hasn’t dominated a game since Sept. 23. This would add value to Texas’ win over the Tide, too. The second is that the Pac-12 hasn’t won a national title in 20 years, and when the conference last sent a team (Washington) to the CFP in 2016 it watched it get whooped by Alabama, 24-7.

There isn’t demonstrable proof that the Pac-12 is as good or better than the other Power Five conferences this year. There is proof that it hasn’t measured up over the past two decades, though.

Again, if you’re a Huskies fan — just beat Oregon. If you’re a Pac-12 fan, just hope Alabama, or Texas or FSU (or even Michigan) loses.

But if the scenario at the top of this column comes to be? Here’s who I think should be in: Michigan, Alabama, Florida State and Oregon. No Georgia (you can’t put a one-loss conference runner-up over any one-loss champ), and no Texas. Here’s why.

Despite having beaten Alabama head to head, an SEC championship is more impressive than a Big 12 title. Alabama will have had a more complete season than the Longhorns. Oregon, meanwhile, has dominated all of its second-half foes. The Ducks’ average margin of victory since losing to Washington is 26. Texas, meanwhile, struggled against Houston (31-24), needed OT to beat Kansas State and barely squeaked by TCU (29-26). But if it clobbers Oklahoma State and Oregon struggles vs. UW?

Who knows?

It’s unlikely that this exact scenario will play out. If it does, however, the committee would be faced with one of its most difficult decisions to date — and the ousted school would have every right to feel snubbed.

Bottom line: a conference title might be the only championship a Pac-12 team gets to play for this season. Would that be standard anti-West Coast bias at work? Maybe. Or maybe, over all these years, the conference simply did it to itself.

[Michael K.]

The fact that in college they still even look at things like what happened in the past is stupid. Even in the NFL, the rosters change so much from year to year, but I’m college? Yeah, punish the Conference for what has happened in the past.

If USC has our resume they would be #2 in the Nation, and more than likely Oregon would too. They are punishing the Conference for the past and because Washington is the #1 team and not who they want it to be.

But yea, four teams is the stupidest idea, and was only acceptable because the two ways they decided a NC before were even stupider!

[D-train]

Looks like the SEC Chairman would like the Committee to omit the Texas Alabama game from consideration. WTF???

"The criteria is not to put the undefeated teams in the four-team playoff," Sankey said. "If we did that, we would have FCS teams in the CFP. You have to look deeply, and I think the committee has to consider big-picture issues like the Texas and Alabama game. That was a huge night. Should that game be scheduled? Take that game off Alabama's schedule and what does this look like right now? You have to reward people for winning those games, absolutely. You just can't ultimately penalize them. It's not a one-week analysis; it's a full-season analysis."

[D-train]

If FSU and Alabama and Michigan win, now that Texas has destroyed OSU for the B12 title, you HAVE to put them in over Bama.

Michigan
Washington
FSU
Texas

First out
Alabama
Georgia
OSU

[Michael K.]

At first I was pissed at Georgia, but playing Florida State might be our best matchup. Roll Tide I guess!