What Bowl might we get?
Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:03 pm
Dawgs are currently 6-4... 3-4 in conference. I'm fairly confident saying that we can expect 2 more wins against Colorado and WSU... so that would mean we finish 8-4, 5-4 in conference.
Either Oregon or Utah will play in the Rose Bowl. I'm anticipating that the loser of the P12 Championship will likely get a NY6 Bowl Birth against a P5 team that just missed the playoff (like the matchup against Penn St. 2 years ago, except that we won the Championship).
That leaves bowls like the Alamo and Holiday in our grasp. I'd be pretty happy with a birth in either. We could also play in the Red Box Bowl like Oregon did last year at the same 8-4, 5-4 record.
Here's what we're looking at:
North:
Stanford currently has the best route to out place us in the North given that they have the tie breaker and none of their remaining games are particularly menacing. Issue for Stanford is they're currently 4-4 overall and 3-3 in conference. My guess is they'll lose to WSU, beat Colorado and Cal.. finishing 5-4 in conference, but they'll also lose to Notre Dame to finish the year. That will make them 6-6 on the year... even though they'd have the better conference record over us, I doubt the Alamo and Holiday would want to pick a 6-6 Stanford team over a 8-4 Washington team... especially if it's to go up against a Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Iowa etc... they'd want a team that can compete with those teams and I don't think Stanford can, nor has a good perception at 6-6.
Oregon St. is about to fall off a cliff. They have to win 2/3 against WSU, ASU, Oregon to finish their year just to become bowl eligible. They would have to finish 3-0 to out place UW. Not happening.
Nobody else in the North has a real shot to overtake us for Bowls.
South:
USC is currently 5-4 overall, 4-2 in conference. Their game against ASU next week will likely determine if UW gets knocked down a notch in bowl consideration. If they beat ASU, I'm guessing they finish 8-4... 7-2 in conference with what feels like easier games against UCLA and CAL over the last 2 weeks. If this happens USC likely gets the Alamo and we'd be in the Holiday. If they lose to ASU... well that's gonna flip things upside down for the Dawgs.
ASU has a tough schedule to finish the year. They're already just 2-3 in conference and have games remaining against USC and Oregon. My guess is they go 2-2 down the stretch and finish 7-5, 4-5 where we'd out place them for consideration... if they were to beat USC it would really muddy the waters for UW because they'd realistically end up with the same overall record and conference record as UW and with a better resume despite the 2 teams not meeting in the regular season. So root for ASU to lose this weekend!
UCLA currently has a 4-2 conference record, but is just 4-4 overall with games against USC and Utah remaining. I'm guessing they finish 5-7 with losses to USC and Utah to finish the year... making them not bowl eligible. If they were somehow able to pull off a miracle it could make things dicey for UW in terms of bowl opportunities but I don't see it happening. The best record they can really end up with is 6-6 6-3... which doesn't get them over what is the hump I mentioned for Stanford... and they won't play UW so that doesn't help their cause.
Nobody else is getting into a bowl from the South.
My final Bowl Predictions:
Rose Bowl: 12-1 Utah vs Minnesota (I don't think a 1-loss P12 team makes the playoff. Minnesota is about to beat Penn St. and has a real shot at the B10 Championship where they will lose, but will earn the Rose Bowl birth over Penn St. for beating them in the regular season)
Cotton Bowl: 11-2 Oregon vs Oklahoma/Georgia (Oregon gets the at large bid UW got a few years back against Penn St... they will play a team that just missed the playoff after losing the P12 Championship)
Alamo Bowl: 8-4 USC vs Baylor/Kansas St. (technically the better bowl, and they will have earned it with a 7-2 conference record, but it won't be a better opponent than the Huskies play because the B12 is down)
Holiday Bowl: 8-4 UW vs Penn St. (kind of crazy... Penn St. looks like they are going to lose to Minnesota today, they have another loss coming against Ohio st. That would give them 2 conference losses, no chance at a B10 Championship, leaving them 3rd or even 4th best in conference... now they could maybe get an at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl over a P12 team that lost in the Championship, but they played nobody non-conference and I think Oregon would get the nod)
Red Box Bowl: 6-6 Stanford vs Iowa (This just seems to fit... last year it was 8-4 Oregon vs Michigan St... so I'm going with a Stanford team who played a tough non-conference in UCF and Notre Dame vs a team that will likely finish 5th in the B10)
Sun Bowl: 7-5 ASU vs Pittsburg (Last year's Sun Bowl was Cal vs Pittsburg... Pitt is in pretty much the same spot as last year... so that's what I'm going with)
Either Oregon or Utah will play in the Rose Bowl. I'm anticipating that the loser of the P12 Championship will likely get a NY6 Bowl Birth against a P5 team that just missed the playoff (like the matchup against Penn St. 2 years ago, except that we won the Championship).
That leaves bowls like the Alamo and Holiday in our grasp. I'd be pretty happy with a birth in either. We could also play in the Red Box Bowl like Oregon did last year at the same 8-4, 5-4 record.
Here's what we're looking at:
North:
Stanford currently has the best route to out place us in the North given that they have the tie breaker and none of their remaining games are particularly menacing. Issue for Stanford is they're currently 4-4 overall and 3-3 in conference. My guess is they'll lose to WSU, beat Colorado and Cal.. finishing 5-4 in conference, but they'll also lose to Notre Dame to finish the year. That will make them 6-6 on the year... even though they'd have the better conference record over us, I doubt the Alamo and Holiday would want to pick a 6-6 Stanford team over a 8-4 Washington team... especially if it's to go up against a Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Iowa etc... they'd want a team that can compete with those teams and I don't think Stanford can, nor has a good perception at 6-6.
Oregon St. is about to fall off a cliff. They have to win 2/3 against WSU, ASU, Oregon to finish their year just to become bowl eligible. They would have to finish 3-0 to out place UW. Not happening.
Nobody else in the North has a real shot to overtake us for Bowls.
South:
USC is currently 5-4 overall, 4-2 in conference. Their game against ASU next week will likely determine if UW gets knocked down a notch in bowl consideration. If they beat ASU, I'm guessing they finish 8-4... 7-2 in conference with what feels like easier games against UCLA and CAL over the last 2 weeks. If this happens USC likely gets the Alamo and we'd be in the Holiday. If they lose to ASU... well that's gonna flip things upside down for the Dawgs.
ASU has a tough schedule to finish the year. They're already just 2-3 in conference and have games remaining against USC and Oregon. My guess is they go 2-2 down the stretch and finish 7-5, 4-5 where we'd out place them for consideration... if they were to beat USC it would really muddy the waters for UW because they'd realistically end up with the same overall record and conference record as UW and with a better resume despite the 2 teams not meeting in the regular season. So root for ASU to lose this weekend!
UCLA currently has a 4-2 conference record, but is just 4-4 overall with games against USC and Utah remaining. I'm guessing they finish 5-7 with losses to USC and Utah to finish the year... making them not bowl eligible. If they were somehow able to pull off a miracle it could make things dicey for UW in terms of bowl opportunities but I don't see it happening. The best record they can really end up with is 6-6 6-3... which doesn't get them over what is the hump I mentioned for Stanford... and they won't play UW so that doesn't help their cause.
Nobody else is getting into a bowl from the South.
My final Bowl Predictions:
Rose Bowl: 12-1 Utah vs Minnesota (I don't think a 1-loss P12 team makes the playoff. Minnesota is about to beat Penn St. and has a real shot at the B10 Championship where they will lose, but will earn the Rose Bowl birth over Penn St. for beating them in the regular season)
Cotton Bowl: 11-2 Oregon vs Oklahoma/Georgia (Oregon gets the at large bid UW got a few years back against Penn St... they will play a team that just missed the playoff after losing the P12 Championship)
Alamo Bowl: 8-4 USC vs Baylor/Kansas St. (technically the better bowl, and they will have earned it with a 7-2 conference record, but it won't be a better opponent than the Huskies play because the B12 is down)
Holiday Bowl: 8-4 UW vs Penn St. (kind of crazy... Penn St. looks like they are going to lose to Minnesota today, they have another loss coming against Ohio st. That would give them 2 conference losses, no chance at a B10 Championship, leaving them 3rd or even 4th best in conference... now they could maybe get an at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl over a P12 team that lost in the Championship, but they played nobody non-conference and I think Oregon would get the nod)
Red Box Bowl: 6-6 Stanford vs Iowa (This just seems to fit... last year it was 8-4 Oregon vs Michigan St... so I'm going with a Stanford team who played a tough non-conference in UCF and Notre Dame vs a team that will likely finish 5th in the B10)
Sun Bowl: 7-5 ASU vs Pittsburg (Last year's Sun Bowl was Cal vs Pittsburg... Pitt is in pretty much the same spot as last year... so that's what I'm going with)