What Bowl might we get?

IStillLoveTheMs
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What Bowl might we get?

Post by IStillLoveTheMs » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:03 pm

Dawgs are currently 6-4... 3-4 in conference. I'm fairly confident saying that we can expect 2 more wins against Colorado and WSU... so that would mean we finish 8-4, 5-4 in conference.

Either Oregon or Utah will play in the Rose Bowl. I'm anticipating that the loser of the P12 Championship will likely get a NY6 Bowl Birth against a P5 team that just missed the playoff (like the matchup against Penn St. 2 years ago, except that we won the Championship).

That leaves bowls like the Alamo and Holiday in our grasp. I'd be pretty happy with a birth in either. We could also play in the Red Box Bowl like Oregon did last year at the same 8-4, 5-4 record.

Here's what we're looking at:

North:

Stanford currently has the best route to out place us in the North given that they have the tie breaker and none of their remaining games are particularly menacing. Issue for Stanford is they're currently 4-4 overall and 3-3 in conference. My guess is they'll lose to WSU, beat Colorado and Cal.. finishing 5-4 in conference, but they'll also lose to Notre Dame to finish the year. That will make them 6-6 on the year... even though they'd have the better conference record over us, I doubt the Alamo and Holiday would want to pick a 6-6 Stanford team over a 8-4 Washington team... especially if it's to go up against a Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Iowa etc... they'd want a team that can compete with those teams and I don't think Stanford can, nor has a good perception at 6-6.

Oregon St. is about to fall off a cliff. They have to win 2/3 against WSU, ASU, Oregon to finish their year just to become bowl eligible. They would have to finish 3-0 to out place UW. Not happening.

Nobody else in the North has a real shot to overtake us for Bowls.

South:

USC is currently 5-4 overall, 4-2 in conference. Their game against ASU next week will likely determine if UW gets knocked down a notch in bowl consideration. If they beat ASU, I'm guessing they finish 8-4... 7-2 in conference with what feels like easier games against UCLA and CAL over the last 2 weeks. If this happens USC likely gets the Alamo and we'd be in the Holiday. If they lose to ASU... well that's gonna flip things upside down for the Dawgs.

ASU has a tough schedule to finish the year. They're already just 2-3 in conference and have games remaining against USC and Oregon. My guess is they go 2-2 down the stretch and finish 7-5, 4-5 where we'd out place them for consideration... if they were to beat USC it would really muddy the waters for UW because they'd realistically end up with the same overall record and conference record as UW and with a better resume despite the 2 teams not meeting in the regular season. So root for ASU to lose this weekend!

UCLA currently has a 4-2 conference record, but is just 4-4 overall with games against USC and Utah remaining. I'm guessing they finish 5-7 with losses to USC and Utah to finish the year... making them not bowl eligible. If they were somehow able to pull off a miracle it could make things dicey for UW in terms of bowl opportunities but I don't see it happening. The best record they can really end up with is 6-6 6-3... which doesn't get them over what is the hump I mentioned for Stanford... and they won't play UW so that doesn't help their cause.

Nobody else is getting into a bowl from the South.

My final Bowl Predictions:

Rose Bowl: 12-1 Utah vs Minnesota (I don't think a 1-loss P12 team makes the playoff. Minnesota is about to beat Penn St. and has a real shot at the B10 Championship where they will lose, but will earn the Rose Bowl birth over Penn St. for beating them in the regular season)

Cotton Bowl: 11-2 Oregon vs Oklahoma/Georgia (Oregon gets the at large bid UW got a few years back against Penn St... they will play a team that just missed the playoff after losing the P12 Championship)

Alamo Bowl: 8-4 USC vs Baylor/Kansas St. (technically the better bowl, and they will have earned it with a 7-2 conference record, but it won't be a better opponent than the Huskies play because the B12 is down)

Holiday Bowl: 8-4 UW vs Penn St. (kind of crazy... Penn St. looks like they are going to lose to Minnesota today, they have another loss coming against Ohio st. That would give them 2 conference losses, no chance at a B10 Championship, leaving them 3rd or even 4th best in conference... now they could maybe get an at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl over a P12 team that lost in the Championship, but they played nobody non-conference and I think Oregon would get the nod)

Red Box Bowl: 6-6 Stanford vs Iowa (This just seems to fit... last year it was 8-4 Oregon vs Michigan St... so I'm going with a Stanford team who played a tough non-conference in UCF and Notre Dame vs a team that will likely finish 5th in the B10)

Sun Bowl: 7-5 ASU vs Pittsburg (Last year's Sun Bowl was Cal vs Pittsburg... Pitt is in pretty much the same spot as last year... so that's what I'm going with)

Hasslecracked
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by Hasslecracked » Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:57 am

Stanford already lost to Colorado so that knocks them down a peg

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:42 am

Wow, I would hope UW doesn't have to face Penn St again, or it would likely be an even bigger beat-down than their last bowl game against them.

DavidGee24
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by DavidGee24 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:49 pm

Whatever bowl they get, they're probably going to get smoked again. They're going to need an opponent that's just as extremely disappointed to be there, like a few years ago when they got the Nebraska rematch in the Holiday Bowl, although in that case it was only a disappointment for the Cornhuskers.

IStillLoveTheMs
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by IStillLoveTheMs » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:53 pm

I'm not sure UW is as bad as everyone thinks. I think they can compete w/ the majority of teams in this country, including Penn St.

They have 3 losses by a combined 10 points.

They lost to a CAL team by 1 point who had their QB stayed healthy, probably is a lot better than they ended up being...

They looked better than Oregon for 7/8th's of that game. Oregon had to go for it on 4th and 3 from their own 30 with 8 minutes to go in the game to just to stay in it. They lost by 4 and had the ball in their hands to win it until Pleasant just completely forgot about how to block for our QB on a 1st down at the Oregon 30.

They looked better than Utah for the entire first half and really most of the 3rd Q... terrible calls by Hamden like an option on 3rd and 3 when we were up 14-3... and Culp dropping that wide open ball on 4th down kept Utah in the game when we should have been up far more in the first half. Because our coaches kept Utah in it, they simply ran us down in the 4th... we needed to build a bigger lead and ofc, instead we shot ourselves in the foot and only lost by 5.

The only game I felt we had no answer was against Stanford... which is just weird.

What you saw on D against OSU I felt was a major leap for this defense and the program going forward. Finally it seemed like there was a cohesion we hadn't seen and a dominance that showed me the young guys had turned a corner.

Like I said in another thread, Eason sticks around... we lose Fuller and Baccellia which is a positive, we lose Manu and Wellington which is a positive... all we lose who might have an impact is Trey Adams and Nick Harris... but we have a ton of OL depth built through great recruiting so I'm not worried there. Next year's UW squad could be a playoff contender... just need Eason to realize he needs to stick around to grow, because frankly, he's not ready.

57reasons
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by 57reasons » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:35 am

lose Hilbers too, so 60% of the OL. good thing such a great class coming in - might just see Rosengarten starting as a true frosh. Murao maybe too if they prefer Matteo at Guard. Agreed on Eason, but not sure if he or the rest of the league agrees. certainly last two weeks would suggest it. but losing 3 OL starters plus perhaps your best two playmakers in Ahmed and Bryant, for a team that's not the top contender we thought they'd be, might still be a hard sell.

D-train
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:43 am

Does it matter. We played in four different bowl games from 2010-2013. Without looking can anyone tell me the year and bowl game for any of those four years???
dt

IStillLoveTheMs
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by IStillLoveTheMs » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:59 am

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:43 am
Does it matter. We played in four different bowl games from 2010-2013. Without looking can anyone tell me the year and bowl game for any of those four years???
hmm... without looking.

2010 Holiday Bowl vs Nebraska
2013 Vegas Bowl vs Boise St.
2012 Alamo Bowl vs Baylor

I might have the years wrong and I don't remember the other.

D-train
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:13 am

2010 Holiday Bowl W 19–7 December 30, 2010 2010 Nebraska Cornhuskers Qualcomm Stadium[A 2] San Diego 57,291 Steve Sarkisian
2011 Alamo Bowl L 56–67 December 29, 2011 2011 Baylor Bears Alamodome San Antonio 65,256 Steve Sarkisian
2012 Maaco Bowl Las Vegas L 26–28 December 22, 2012 2012 Boise State Broncos Sam Boyd Stadium Las Vegas 33,217 Steve Sarkisian
2013 Fight Hunger Bowl W 31–16 December 27, 2013 2013 BYU Cougars AT&T Park San Francisco 34,136 Marques Tuiasosopo (Interim)
dt

D-train
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Re: What Bowl might we get?

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:15 am

IStillLoveTheMs wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:59 am
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:43 am
Does it matter. We played in four different bowl games from 2010-2013. Without looking can anyone tell me the year and bowl game for any of those four years???
hmm... without looking.

2010 Holiday Bowl vs Nebraska
2013 Vegas Bowl vs Boise St.
2012 Alamo Bowl vs Baylor

I might have the years wrong and I don't remember the other.
Not bad. That probably puts you in the top 1% of Husky football fans.

I can easily do if for the Hawks
2010 Beastquake vs. NO then lose at Chicago
2011 Miss playoffs going 7-9
2012 Lose at Atlanta
2013 SB champion.
dt

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