Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

D-train
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Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by D-train » Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:11 am

Teams seem to moving towards the stars and scrubs approach. Middle class being squeezed out.
In all, 40 players were non-tendered yesterday, more than double the amount of players non-tendered two years ago. As many analysts have pointed out, MLB clubs seem to have put a dollar amount on wins lower than in years past, and a one-plus player set to earn $10M might be considered only to be “worth” half that on the open market, making non-tendering a more attractive option for clubs insistent upon shaving payroll.


Jeff Passan

@JeffPassan
There were 40 players eligible for arbitration who were non-tendered today. Last year, that number was 27. The year before, 19.

Teams are clearly being aggressive with tenders, recognizing that if there is better value on the open market, using the arb system is not necessary.

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Eno Sarris

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Right now the market is murder on 1+ win guys like Kevin Pillar. He was projected for a win and a half and $9m is not a terrible piece for that production, but market is paying more like $5m per win at that level. Similar situation with Domingo Santana, another 1+ win non-tender.
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/12/ ... e-mariners
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bpj
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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by bpj » Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:41 am

Good to see, teams shouldn't pay for the first 2 WAR imo, that's what your $500k Kyle Lewis's should be capable of (otherwise why bother bringing them up), and you should be able to bring one or two Kyle Lewises up in a given year.

Dipoto seems to be taking the approach, he's sticking with $1M or less players so far. Much nicer than seeing $7M mediocre relievers.

Only place we seem to differ is I'd be adding the 28 year old stars now if I want to compete in 2021 and building around them. Especially since the free agent field is weaker going forward.

Oh well, trades will still be a possibility, and actually seem to be where the value is these days. Won't kill our farm system to go acquire a Cole, Greinke or Verlander like the Astros have done.

We actually have to start dealing from their depth soon anyways.

And to be clear, I believe it was Doc at SSI who first championed the Stars and Scrubs approach.

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:20 am

I believe that it's going to cost more than just money to sign Cole. Just my opinion.

Donn Beach
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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by Donn Beach » Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:48 am

the deal with Cole, and what to me will make it interesting to watch is I believe the Angels have no other option than to get him signed, its not like we need to do our best, its it has to be done. They have to get a team built around Trout, no more screwing around about it. They are in the biggest market in the country, they are competing for it with the Dodgers and Cole seems to have made every indication of wanting to be there. The Angels need a front line pitcher and there isn't going to be another one available for who knows when. They don't have the prospects to trade for one, they have to sign Cole. And then there is the Yankees, they could use him too for a lot of the same reasons. Yankees do not seem to be the spenders they one were but they have the dough. And then there is Scott Boras right in the middle...

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bpj
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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by bpj » Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:58 am

Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:20 am
I believe that it's going to cost more than just money to sign Cole. Just my opinion.
What do you mean by this? Like a 3rd round draft pick?

Good points Donn, the makings of a record breaking bidding war for Cole would be there if not for the payroll luxury tax. The Dodgers and Yankees would love to get their hands on him.
Last edited by bpj on Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Hanjag
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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by Hanjag » Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:00 am

bpj wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:41 am
Good to see, teams shouldn't pay for the first 2 WAR imo, that's what your $500k Kyle Lewis's should be capable of (otherwise why bother bringing them up), and you should be able to bring one or two Kyle Lewises up in a given year.

Dipoto seems to be taking the approach, he's sticking with $1M or less players so far. Much nicer than seeing $7M mediocre relievers.

Only place we seem to differ is I'd be adding the 28 year old stars now if I want to compete in 2021 and building around them. Especially since the free agent field is weaker going forward.

Oh well, trades will still be a possibility, and actually seem to be where the value is these days. Won't kill our farm system to go acquire a Cole, Greinke or Verlander like the Astros have done.

We actually have to start dealing from their depth soon anyways.

And to be clear, I believe it was Doc at SSI who first championed the Stars and Scrubs approach.
HA ha ha. I remember reading about civics
https://seattlesportsinsider.com/?q=blo ... ars-scrubs
A blast from the past. Thanks for the reminder.

D-train
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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by D-train » Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:56 pm

bpj wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:58 am
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:20 am
I believe that it's going to cost more than just money to sign Cole. Just my opinion.
What do you mean by this? Like a 3rd round draft pick?

Good points Donn, the makings of a record breaking bidding war for Cole would be there if not for the payroll luxury tax. The Dodgers and Yankees would love to get their hands on him.
We are in the top 10 so our pick is protected. No idea what he is talking about.
dt

D-train
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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by D-train » Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:58 pm

Hanjag wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:00 am
bpj wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:41 am
Good to see, teams shouldn't pay for the first 2 WAR imo, that's what your $500k Kyle Lewis's should be capable of (otherwise why bother bringing them up), and you should be able to bring one or two Kyle Lewises up in a given year.

Dipoto seems to be taking the approach, he's sticking with $1M or less players so far. Much nicer than seeing $7M mediocre relievers.

Only place we seem to differ is I'd be adding the 28 year old stars now if I want to compete in 2021 and building around them. Especially since the free agent field is weaker going forward.

Oh well, trades will still be a possibility, and actually seem to be where the value is these days. Won't kill our farm system to go acquire a Cole, Greinke or Verlander like the Astros have done.

We actually have to start dealing from their depth soon anyways.

And to be clear, I believe it was Doc at SSI who first championed the Stars and Scrubs approach.
HA ha ha. I remember reading about civics
https://seattlesportsinsider.com/?q=blo ... ars-scrubs
A blast from the past. Thanks for the reminder.
That is one of the problems with our youth today. They aren't taught about civics in high school and more! :)
dt

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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by DavidGee24 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:32 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:48 am
the deal with Cole, and what to me will make it interesting to watch is I believe the Angels have no other option than to get him signed, its not like we need to do our best, its it has to be done. They have to get a team built around Trout, no more screwing around about it. They are in the biggest market in the country, they are competing for it with the Dodgers and Cole seems to have made every indication of wanting to be there. The Angels need a front line pitcher and there isn't going to be another one available for who knows when. They don't have the prospects to trade for one, they have to sign Cole. And then there is the Yankees, they could use him too for a lot of the same reasons. Yankees do not seem to be the spenders they one were but they have the dough. And then there is Scott Boras right in the middle...
You're absolutely right about the Angels and Cole, and I'd bet that they'll break the bank to sign him, but they don't compete with the Dodgers here despite Arte Moreno sticking "Los Angeles" in their name. The Angels are strictly an Orange County team, with a few fans in the Inland Empire and the southernmost part of Los Angeles County. And even with that there are quite a few Dodger fans in Orange County. Fortunately for the Angels there are over three million people in Orange County and they have star power that puts butts in seats.

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Re: Recent trend is validating bpj's approach to roster building

Post by Donn Beach » Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:34 am

ok, but there is a rivalry there isn't there? Its more Angels driven I think, obsessed with the Dodgers. That has been my point in the past, you don't have the sort of complacency the Mariners get away with in a situation like that... Don't their broadcast areas overlap? What's the deal with this Dodger blackout, have they settled that?

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