OT Bitcoin, Blockchain and Cryptocurrency

[bpj]

Cont.

[bpj]

Cont.

[bpj]

Cont.

[TraderGary]

Still cheap.

Your grandkids will say, "Remember how Grandpa says he could have bought Bitcoin under $20k?"

bpj, thanks for the info. I just discovered this thread tonight.

I've been trading stocks, futures, and some options for a number of years but have purposely steered away from the crypto's. They scare the hell out of me because I experienced the "dot com" bubble, and for me personally, this feels like a repeat of that. It's all everybody seems to want to talk about these days, just like they did with the dot coms. It's all over the internet and message boards. That's typically a sign to stay as far away as possible.

That being said, I know absolutely nothing about this market and you seem to be quite knowledgeable on the subject based on what I've read in this thread, and I respect that. So please understand I'm not suggesting your info is not valuable, or accurate, or actionable or anything else. But I would like to play devil's advocate for a moment if you don't mind.

What would you say if I suggested to you that Bitcoin or any of the other crypto currencies is a repeat of the dot com bubble? I'm not asking you to convince me, but I'm curious how you would respond to that if someone walked up and posed that question to you.

Thanks

I think you're exactly right, only in my opinion we're at the very beginning of adoption long before any bubble. Still only ~1% of people are actually in the crypto market.

The entire crypto market cap is currently $535 Billion dollars in a worldwide market encompassing thousands of projects.

To understand where we're at in this "bubble":

Amazon- market cap is $1.6 Trillion (this one company is 3x the size of the entire crypto market).

Ebay- market cap is $36 Billion.

The market caps of a few projects I think have potential to be, "Boy if I had just thrown a few hundred bucks at that" type of plays 20 years from now when people look back at what were the emerging crypto markets like we do now about the eBays, Amazons, etc.

Tellor Bank (TRB)- $36 Million market cap
IRISnet (IRIS)- $49 Million market cap
Open Annex (OAX)- $4.9 Million market cap

Some of these projects out there become even one billion dollar projects and you already 10x your money.

So, yes, I agree we're looking at a potential crypto bubble, but it's going to be years down the road when more than 1% of people are in the market.

The rumblings you're hearing are still just the infancy of the market.

bpj, thank you for the detailed explanation. I appreciate you taking the time to explain this to someone who doesn't have a clue about the crypto market. Gave me something to think about and consider.

So because of my obvious lack of knowledge on the subject, let me ask you a follow-up question if I may. What is driving the rapid, even parabolic ascent in the crypto prices? Is it based in fundamentals, or is it people jumping on the bandwagon for fear of missing out and driving prices higher? And if it's the latter, once the designated crypto shows any sign of reversal, those same people who jumped on the bandwagon are going to jump off just as quickly to protect their profits.

If I'm understanding you correctly, I guess your point about there being <1% of traders/investors in the crypto market is saying that even when there are signs of a reversal, and even with the majority of the current holders taking profits when that reversal inevitably occurs, that there's still a majority of the population waiting for a pullback to jump on the train?

BTW, excellent thread. Thanks for starting it.

And in a somewhat related question, do you trade other markets? Equities, futures, options?

[TraderGary]

Cont.

Wow interesting stuff. Thanks for posting. Guess I need to start learning about this market.

[bpj]

bpj, thanks for the info. I just discovered this thread tonight.

I've been trading stocks, futures, and some options for a number of years but have purposely steered away from the crypto's. They scare the hell out of me because I experienced the "dot com" bubble, and for me personally, this feels like a repeat of that. It's all everybody seems to want to talk about these days, just like they did with the dot coms. It's all over the internet and message boards. That's typically a sign to stay as far away as possible.

That being said, I know absolutely nothing about this market and you seem to be quite knowledgeable on the subject based on what I've read in this thread, and I respect that. So please understand I'm not suggesting your info is not valuable, or accurate, or actionable or anything else. But I would like to play devil's advocate for a moment if you don't mind.

What would you say if I suggested to you that Bitcoin or any of the other crypto currencies is a repeat of the dot com bubble? I'm not asking you to convince me, but I'm curious how you would respond to that if someone walked up and posed that question to you.

Thanks

I think you're exactly right, only in my opinion we're at the very beginning of adoption long before any bubble. Still only ~1% of people are actually in the crypto market.

The entire crypto market cap is currently $535 Billion dollars in a worldwide market encompassing thousands of projects.

To understand where we're at in this "bubble":

Amazon- market cap is $1.6 Trillion (this one company is 3x the size of the entire crypto market).

Ebay- market cap is $36 Billion.

The market caps of a few projects I think have potential to be, "Boy if I had just thrown a few hundred bucks at that" type of plays 20 years from now when people look back at what were the emerging crypto markets like we do now about the eBays, Amazons, etc.

Tellor Bank (TRB)- $36 Million market cap
IRISnet (IRIS)- $49 Million market cap
Open Annex (OAX)- $4.9 Million market cap

Some of these projects out there become even one billion dollar projects and you already 10x your money.

So, yes, I agree we're looking at a potential crypto bubble, but it's going to be years down the road when more than 1% of people are in the market.

The rumblings you're hearing are still just the infancy of the market.

bpj, thank you for the detailed explanation. I appreciate you taking the time to explain this to someone who doesn't have a clue about the crypto market. Gave me something to think about and consider.

So because of my obvious lack of knowledge on the subject, let me ask you a follow-up question if I may. What is driving the rapid, even parabolic ascent in the crypto prices? Is it based in fundamentals, or is it people jumping on the bandwagon for fear of missing out and driving prices higher? And if it's the latter, once the designated crypto shows any sign of reversal, those same people who jumped on the bandwagon are going to jump off just as quickly to protect their profits.

If I'm understanding you correctly, I guess your point about there being <1% of traders/investors in the crypto market is saying that even when there are signs of a reversal, and even with the majority of the current holders taking profits when that reversal inevitably occurs, that there's still a majority of the population waiting for a pullback to jump on the train?

BTW, excellent thread. Thanks for starting it.

And in a somewhat related question, do you trade other markets? Equities, futures, options?

Basically I'm saying that you can buy and sell with the current 30% market fluctuations or just wait for the 10,000% to hit and call it good.

People think of bitcoin as a ponzi because the more new people buy in the higher the price goes. But what it really means is that because bitcoin has a fixed supply, unlike dollars, its not depreciating by design like the dollar as they print more. There are only 21 million bitcoin in existence. That can never change. It's value is increasing only due to demand, and for many reasons like Michael Saylor points out in his tweets, that demand is not likely to go away or even remain stagnant.

I'm comfortable with my entry positions so I'm not a trader at this point unless there are obvious entries and exits. I'm considering everything a 5 year hold and see you on the other side.

[TraderGary]

I think you're exactly right, only in my opinion we're at the very beginning of adoption long before any bubble. Still only ~1% of people are actually in the crypto market.

The entire crypto market cap is currently $535 Billion dollars in a worldwide market encompassing thousands of projects.

To understand where we're at in this "bubble":

Amazon- market cap is $1.6 Trillion (this one company is 3x the size of the entire crypto market).

Ebay- market cap is $36 Billion.

The market caps of a few projects I think have potential to be, "Boy if I had just thrown a few hundred bucks at that" type of plays 20 years from now when people look back at what were the emerging crypto markets like we do now about the eBays, Amazons, etc.

Tellor Bank (TRB)- $36 Million market cap
IRISnet (IRIS)- $49 Million market cap
Open Annex (OAX)- $4.9 Million market cap

Some of these projects out there become even one billion dollar projects and you already 10x your money.

So, yes, I agree we're looking at a potential crypto bubble, but it's going to be years down the road when more than 1% of people are in the market.

The rumblings you're hearing are still just the infancy of the market.

bpj, thank you for the detailed explanation. I appreciate you taking the time to explain this to someone who doesn't have a clue about the crypto market. Gave me something to think about and consider.

So because of my obvious lack of knowledge on the subject, let me ask you a follow-up question if I may. What is driving the rapid, even parabolic ascent in the crypto prices? Is it based in fundamentals, or is it people jumping on the bandwagon for fear of missing out and driving prices higher? And if it's the latter, once the designated crypto shows any sign of reversal, those same people who jumped on the bandwagon are going to jump off just as quickly to protect their profits.

If I'm understanding you correctly, I guess your point about there being <1% of traders/investors in the crypto market is saying that even when there are signs of a reversal, and even with the majority of the current holders taking profits when that reversal inevitably occurs, that there's still a majority of the population waiting for a pullback to jump on the train?

BTW, excellent thread. Thanks for starting it.

And in a somewhat related question, do you trade other markets? Equities, futures, options?

Basically I'm saying that you can buy and sell with the current 30% market fluctuations or just wait for the 10,000% to hit and call it good.

I'm comfortable with my entry positions so I'm not a trader unless there are obvious entries and exits. I'm considering everything a 5 year hold and see you on the other side.

Okay, I understand and thank you. Much appreciated. I trade off charts using technical analysis, so trading market fluctuations is right down my alley. I guess I'm going to have to at least take a look at this.

In the meantime, it's time for bed. Have a great night!

[bpj]

bpj, thank you for the detailed explanation. I appreciate you taking the time to explain this to someone who doesn't have a clue about the crypto market. Gave me something to think about and consider.

So because of my obvious lack of knowledge on the subject, let me ask you a follow-up question if I may. What is driving the rapid, even parabolic ascent in the crypto prices? Is it based in fundamentals, or is it people jumping on the bandwagon for fear of missing out and driving prices higher? And if it's the latter, once the designated crypto shows any sign of reversal, those same people who jumped on the bandwagon are going to jump off just as quickly to protect their profits.

If I'm understanding you correctly, I guess your point about there being <1% of traders/investors in the crypto market is saying that even when there are signs of a reversal, and even with the majority of the current holders taking profits when that reversal inevitably occurs, that there's still a majority of the population waiting for a pullback to jump on the train?

BTW, excellent thread. Thanks for starting it.

And in a somewhat related question, do you trade other markets? Equities, futures, options?

Basically I'm saying that you can buy and sell with the current 30% market fluctuations or just wait for the 10,000% to hit and call it good.

I'm comfortable with my entry positions so I'm not a trader unless there are obvious entries and exits. I'm considering everything a 5 year hold and see you on the other side.

Okay, I understand and thank you. Much appreciated. I trade off charts using technical analysis, so trading market fluctuations is right down my alley. I guess I'm going to have to at least take a look at this.

In the meantime, it's time for bed. Have a great night!

Added this part in:

People think of bitcoin as a ponzi because the more new people buy in the higher the price goes. But what it really means is that because bitcoin has a fixed supply, unlike dollars, its not depreciating by design like the dollar as they print more. There are only 21 million bitcoin in existence. That can never change. It's value is increasing only due to demand, and for many reasons like Michael Saylor points out in his tweets, that demand is not likely to go away or even remain stagnant.

[bpj]

Speak of the devil-

[D-train]

I made an effort come up with a future valuation of Sava last night. It has an Alzheimers drug which has shown significant promise in Phase II trials. It is currently at about $8 a share which is less than a $300M Market cap.

I came up with $695 a share with only $2.5 B in peak sales (Biogen's Aducanumab is projected at $4.7 B) I used Incyte's Price/Sales Ratio of ~10 for Jakafi which is indicated for Myelofibrosis has sales of $1.9 B. Their Market cap is $18 B. My estimate is conservative obviously.

I am long 3k shares and 50 Dec call option contracts which control 5k shares.