OT Bitcoin, Blockchain and Cryptocurrency

[D-train]

Wow, check out this 10 bagger in one day.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLSI?p= ... c=fin-srch

[bpj]

I made an effort come up with a future valuation of Sava last night. It has an Alzheimers drug which has shown significant promise in Phase II trials. It is currently at about $8 a share which is less than a $300M Market cap.

I came up with $695 a share with only $2.5 B in peak sales (Biogen's Aducanumab is projected at $4.7 B) I used Incyte's Price/Sales Ratio of ~10 for Jakafi which is indicated for Myelofibrosis has sales of $1.9 B. Their Market cap is $18 B. My estimate is conservative obviously.

I am long 3k shares and 50 Dec call option contracts which control 5k shares.

Thats awesome dt, hope it hits yuge!

[TraderGary]

I made an effort come up with a future valuation of Sava last night. It has an Alzheimers drug which has shown significant promise in Phase II trials. It is currently at about $8 a share which is less than a $300M Market cap.

I came up with $695 a share with only $2.5 B in peak sales (Biogen's Aducanumab is projected at $4.7 B) I used Incyte's Price/Sales Ratio of ~10 for Jakafi which is indicated for Myelofibrosis has sales of $1.9 B. Their Market cap is $18 B. My estimate is conservative obviously.

I am long 3k shares and 50 Dec call option contracts which control 5k shares.

Darren, what's your strike price on those Dec call options?

[D-train]

I made an effort come up with a future valuation of Sava last night. It has an Alzheimers drug which has shown significant promise in Phase II trials. It is currently at about $8 a share which is less than a $300M Market cap.

I came up with $695 a share with only $2.5 B in peak sales (Biogen's Aducanumab is projected at $4.7 B) I used Incyte's Price/Sales Ratio of ~10 for Jakafi which is indicated for Myelofibrosis has sales of $1.9 B. Their Market cap is $18 B. My estimate is conservative obviously.

I am long 3k shares and 50 Dec call option contracts which control 5k shares.

Darren, what's your strike price on those Dec call options?

That's a secret.

[D-train]

Only spent $3k on them but yeah I need some good news and need it in the next 8 days.

[Sexymarinersfan]

SMF, if I may offer a suggestion, please be very careful with options if you're not well versed in them. I don't know if you're looking to buy or sell options, but you can really get hurt in a hurry. I've been trading for a number of years, and I can tell you most of the professionals (and even the non-professionals like myself) don't buy options. They sell options premium for weekly and monthly income. It's comparable to being an insurance company. You're assuming a certain amount of risk and collecting a monthly premium for that risk, with the odds stacked in your favor if you do it right. You should be using a combination of technical analysis combined with options fundamentals (“Greeks”).

I don’t know if you look at company fundamentals, but technical traders (myself included) believe the fundamentals are already reflected in the stock chart. But if you’re a long-term investor and plan to hold positions for months or years at a time, then I would definitely want to know about the company’s balance sheet.

Back to options. The biggest thing working against an option BUYER is Theta decay, which is the time premium. Volatility is another double-edged sword. You can be right on the direction of a stock and still lose money because options are a deteriorating asset based on Theta decay. And if Volatility is moving against you, that can hurt you even more. So if you're going to trade options, I would strongly suggest you be well versed in the options Greeks, particularly Theta, Delta, Vega, and Gamma. And maybe you already are? I don't know where you are in your learning curve but I just wanted to offer that suggestion. You seem like a good guy and I don't like to see anyone get hurt when they're just starting out and trying to learn the trading game.

Also, if you're really serious about trading, I would suggest working with a good trading platform like the professionals use. If you fund an account with TDAmeritrade, (don't recall if there's a minimum amount but I don't think there is although if you're planning to day trade you will need to have at least 25k in your account), you get access to "ThinkorSwim" free of charge and it's an excellent professional traders platform. It's the one I use FWIW.

There's a definite learning curve regarding the platform, but it's well worth your time and effort. It's a very powerful tool, particularly for options trading. It was originally created by Tom Sosnoff who's a very well known and highly regarded options trader/educator, who does a live daily options broadcast online during regular market hours. I believe it's still free to sign up and access but don't quote me on that. Just google Tom Sosnoff and it will pull up the page if you're interested.

Anyway, on that same platform, you can also practice your strategies using a paper trading account with no money on the line and no risk involved. If you're new to options, I strongly suggest doing that for a while till you become comfortable and confident in what you're doing. You can practice trade any strategy you choose, in any combination you can dream of. You get the same data, but it's just delayed by 15 or 20 minutes. But you get real world results based on actual data. It's a GREAT and very VALUABLE tool. When you log into the platform, you have the option of logging into the paper trading side or the funded side. Of course on the funded side, you get live real-time data free of charge. You cannot beat it IMO. (FYI, I'm not affiliated with them in any way, but TDAmeritrade should offer me a commission for this suggestion.... lol).

I'm also a self-taught trader, and when I first starting learning about the market years ago, we didn't have near the resources we do now. You're fortunate in that there is a wealth of very good info on the internet today. (Some of it not so great, but you have to filter through it). Soak it up. Even a lot of good stuff on YouTube if you're a visual learner like I am. When I was trying to teach myself how to trade years ago, about the only thing I had to learn from were books, the occasional webinar, and trial and error. It took much longer to achieve any success and I struggled for quite a while. Almost gave up a couple times. But with all the resources available to us today, it's so much better now. I don’t want to say easier because in my opinion it is not easy to learn how to trade successfully, on a consistent basis.

Many new traders on average blow through 2 separate trading accounts before the light bulb comes on, so you're doing very well. Congratulations and keep it up. Never stop learning. It's an ongoing education as the market is always changing and there's always something new to learn.

As far as knowing when to get out, learn how to project profit targets (Fibonacci's are great for that combined with price support/resistance, moving averages, trend lines, etc) and also how to use trailing stops to protect profits. There are a number of different ways to trail a stop. ATR (average true range) is a very popular method for doing that. A 2-bar trailing stop is another popular one along with moving averages. Tons of info on the net about all these things and so much more.

And before you enter into any trade, you should always know where you're exit point is if you're wrong, otherwise emotion can take over, and that's never a good thing. It can cause you to make bad/emotional decisions and justifications that could potentially wipe out your account. Everyone experiences losses. There isn’t a trader in history who has not had a drawdown from time to time. Think of it as a cost of doing business – “overhead” if you will.

Was just going to write a few sentences but ended up writing a book. I guess when I start talking about trading, (or Seahawks/Mariners), I sometimes get carried away. Please understand I’m no expert or world-class trader. I’m just an average trader with wins and losses like everyone else. But I saw your post and wanted to offer a few tidbits from things I've learned over the years in the hope that it might be at least a little helpful to you in some way.

Anyway, good luck to you and I hope you become the next millionaire. If you do, maybe you can teach me a few new things you learned about trading. lol It's always interesting to learn how different traders have different perspectives.

Wow! Thank you so much. It is a lot to take in youre absolutely right. And I am at ground zero when it comes to know what I'm doing. But I am studying constantly everyday. I haven't taken any options out yet. They seem very risky, and even riskier for a beginner. I appreciate all the great advice. A lot of what you said I've never heard of before, but I'm sure its just a matter of time, as this has recently become my passion. You're never to old to learn. Thanks again Gary.

[D-train]

Theoretically call options are can be less risky in that you have limited downside but keep the unlimited upside. My best option trade was buying 30 contracts a biotech for $3k. A few weeks later that reported great results on a clinical trial and the stock went from $10 to $20 and I sold for $30k. Downside is I would have lost the entire $3k like I likely will with my Sava options. Well worth the risk reward imo.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Theoretically call options are can be less risky in that you have limited downside but keep the unlimited upside. My best option trade was buying 30 contracts a biotech for $3k. A few weeks later that reported great results on a clinical trial and the stock went from $10 to $20 and I sold for $30k. Downside is I would have lost the entire $3k like I likely will with my Sava options. Well worth the risk reward imo.

$30K!???

Wow! No wonder you're putting up cash contests!

'"I'M NOT WORTHY! I'M NOT WORTHY!" Lmao

Thats awesome DT. I hope to be where you are someday. Congrats!

[D-train]

Theoretically call options are can be less risky in that you have limited downside but keep the unlimited upside. My best option trade was buying 30 contracts a biotech for $3k. A few weeks later that reported great results on a clinical trial and the stock went from $10 to $20 and I sold for $30k. Downside is I would have lost the entire $3k like I likely will with my Sava options. Well worth the risk reward imo.

$30K!???

Wow! No wonder you're putting up cash contests!

'"I'M NOT WORTHY! I'M NOT WORTHY!" Lmao

Thats awesome DT. I hope to be where you are someday. Congrats!

Thanks. That was way back in circa 2007. Yeah that's why I have never got too excited about Vegas or Casinos. I won $100 at Black Jack once. Not exactly life changing lol.

[TraderGary]

Wow! Thank you so much. It is a lot to take in you're absolutely right. And I am at ground zero when it comes to know what I'm doing. But I am studying constantly everyday. I haven't taken any options out yet. They seem very risky, and even riskier for a beginner. I appreciate all the great advice. A lot of what you said I've never heard of before, but I'm sure its just a matter of time, as this has recently become my passion. You're never to old to learn. Thanks again Gary.

It's my pleasure, and I hope it helps. If you are truly passionate about this, and it sounds like you are, then you will likely be successful. You just have to really apply yourself, and realize that it will not happen overnight.

You need to decide what type of trader you're going to be..... technical trader, fundamental trader, trend trader, value trader, breakout trader, momentum trader, etc., and what time frame you want to trade. Do you want to be a scalper, day trader, short-term swing trader, long-term investor, etc. You need to determine what fits your personality and risk-tolerance. And you have to decide what you're going to trade..... stocks, options, futures, forex, or a combination of some or all of the above. All these things and more should be written into a detailed and objective trading plan. As you're just starting out, I would recommend concentrating on one market only.

We're all different, and you need to find out what works for you. There are so many different trading strategies out there. Find what works for you, and where your comfort level is. Study price action and support/resistance, and maybe add a couple technical indicators to your charts, but don't rely solely on those indicators. Many traders search for that "holy grail" indicator for years on end, of which I was one of them. It took me a long time to learn that it just simply doesn't exist because indicators are based on price action, and are inherently lagging price.

That being said, I do use some technical indicators, but they're more for timing and confirmation. Many experienced and successful traders don't use any indicators at all, and trade strictly price action. They'll tell you it's the only way to go. There's a lot to be said for that, and over the years, I've eliminated a lot of the indicators from my charts. But I was overdoing it for a while. I was using as many indicators as I could fit on my chart. lol

Anyway, I could go on and on, but I will leave you with this important suggestion that should be your number one rule above all else, and that is.....

PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL!

Without capital, we have no inventory for which to do business (trade or invest) with. Also, don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. You can't be successful trading scared money. It will cause you to make poor decisions. Trust me, I know

Your trading capital should be separate from any other account, and it shouldn't be money you need to pay your living expenses with. So if you were to wipe out your trading account, it shouldn't affect your living situation or quality of life in any way.

I'm not on this site every day, but I'll check in from time to time.

Good luck and happy trading