World Cup 2022 Thread

User avatar
mostonmike
Posts: 1878
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:35 pm
Location: Manchester, England

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by mostonmike » Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:38 pm

To be fair India's population is 1.4 billion and China about the same yet total combined appearances at the World Cup = 1.

The Dutch have been to 3 World Cup Finals. From the age of being able to walk, their kids want to play professional soccer like their legends Cruyff, Gullitt and van Basten did. Its the same for every other European and South American country.

The best US athletes don't see football as a route to world superstardom and head for the other sports instead. If the MLS can become a successful and rich league that will change. It's slowly improving but needs to find a way to make that leap forward. The next World Cup over there could be another stepping stone.

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 70939
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by D-train » Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:02 pm

Speaking of small countries with an amazing team:
dt

User avatar
mostonmike
Posts: 1878
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:35 pm
Location: Manchester, England

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by mostonmike » Sun Dec 04, 2022 10:49 pm

D-train wrote:
Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:02 pm
Speaking of small countries with an amazing team:
IMG_20221204_224530.jpg
IMG_20221204_224530.jpg (153.03 KiB) Viewed 1806 times



Where's Team GB's squad?

User avatar
mostonmike
Posts: 1878
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:35 pm
Location: Manchester, England

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by mostonmike » Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:01 pm

IMG_20221204_225121.jpg
Updated bracket after England's convincing win tonight. But France look better so our run will probably come to an end on Saturday..

Goals so far 134 in 52 games, average now 2.58 per game - up from 2.50 when I last pointed it out.

Odds now
Brazil +250
France +450
Argentina +550
England +600
Spain +800
Portugal +1200
Netherlands +1400

I am sticking with Brazil but now starting to think whoever comes through from England v France will go on to lose to them in the final.

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 70939
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by D-train » Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:49 pm

mostonmike wrote:
Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:38 pm
To be fair India's population is 1.4 billion and China about the same yet total combined appearances at the World Cup = 1.

The Dutch have been to 3 World Cup Finals. From the age of being able to walk, their kids want to play professional soccer like their legends Cruyff, Gullitt and van Basten did. Its the same for every other European and South American country.

The best US athletes don't see football as a route to world superstardom and head for the other sports instead. If the MLS can become a successful and rich league that will change. It's slowly improving but needs to find a way to make that leap forward. The next World Cup over there could be another stepping stone.
Was thinking about this at the Gym. I am leading a huge Global Epidemiology project for Spinal Muscular Atrophy. We sell it in 70 countries and need to recalculate prevalence.

So USA 330M population x 20% 0-18 year olds x .5 male = 33MM boys 50% play sports = 16.5M .1% elite athletes so 16.5k
Netherlands 18M x 20% 0-18 year olds x .5 male = 1.8M boys 50% play sports = 900k .1% elite athletes so 900 elite athlete

Lets say 10% of the elites in the US play soccer and 100% of the elites in Netherlands play soccer:

That is still 1650 elite US soccer players and only 900 elite Dutch soccer players.
dt

User avatar
mostonmike
Posts: 1878
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:35 pm
Location: Manchester, England

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by mostonmike » Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:25 pm

D-train wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:49 pm
mostonmike wrote:
Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:38 pm
To be fair India's population is 1.4 billion and China about the same yet total combined appearances at the World Cup = 1.

The Dutch have been to 3 World Cup Finals. From the age of being able to walk, their kids want to play professional soccer like their legends Cruyff, Gullitt and van Basten did. Its the same for every other European and South American country.

The best US athletes don't see football as a route to world superstardom and head for the other sports instead. If the MLS can become a successful and rich league that will change. It's slowly improving but needs to find a way to make that leap forward. The next World Cup over there could be another stepping stone.
Was thinking about this at the Gym. I am leading a huge Global Epidemiology project for Spinal Muscular Atrophy. We sell it in 70 countries and need to recalculate prevalence.

So USA 330M population x 20% 0-18 year olds x .5 male = 33MM boys 50% play sports = 16.5M .1% elite athletes so 16.5k
Netherlands 18M x 20% 0-18 year olds x .5 male = 1.8M boys 50% play sports = 900k .1% elite athletes so 900 elite athlete

Lets say 10% of the elites in the US play soccer and 100% of the elites in Netherlands play soccer:

That is still 1650 elite US soccer players and only 900 elite Dutch soccer players.
Love this. But bit-in-red is where I push back and say I would be surprised if it’s 1% who go for soccer - i.e. 165 elite players.
3AB3B5B3-BB87-4E2F-B646-D7856AA2C694.jpeg
And I wasn’t too far wrong, it would be 280. It seems you have the players but once they get to college they don’t pursue the sport like they would with the 4 major sports. They probably go off into big careers in the law or big pharma instead :D

Looks like you have a leaky bucket that MLS has to fix. There is probably a world beating player who’s now in the Miltary or Chief of Police or Fire Service. The NFL wouldn’t let a world beating quarterback slip through the net like your soccer system currently is.

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 70939
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by D-train » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:55 pm

mostonmike wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:25 pm
D-train wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:49 pm
mostonmike wrote:
Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:38 pm
To be fair India's population is 1.4 billion and China about the same yet total combined appearances at the World Cup = 1.

The Dutch have been to 3 World Cup Finals. From the age of being able to walk, their kids want to play professional soccer like their legends Cruyff, Gullitt and van Basten did. Its the same for every other European and South American country.

The best US athletes don't see football as a route to world superstardom and head for the other sports instead. If the MLS can become a successful and rich league that will change. It's slowly improving but needs to find a way to make that leap forward. The next World Cup over there could be another stepping stone.
Was thinking about this at the Gym. I am leading a huge Global Epidemiology project for Spinal Muscular Atrophy. We sell it in 70 countries and need to recalculate prevalence.

So USA 330M population x 20% 0-18 year olds x .5 male = 33MM boys 50% play sports = 16.5M .1% elite athletes so 16.5k
Netherlands 18M x 20% 0-18 year olds x .5 male = 1.8M boys 50% play sports = 900k .1% elite athletes so 900 elite athlete

Lets say 10% of the elites in the US play soccer and 100% of the elites in Netherlands play soccer:

That is still 1650 elite US soccer players and only 900 elite Dutch soccer players.
Love this. But bit-in-red is where I push back and say I would be surprised if it’s 1% who go for soccer - i.e. 165 elite players.

3AB3B5B3-BB87-4E2F-B646-D7856AA2C694.jpeg

And I wasn’t too far wrong, it would be 280. It seems you have the players but once they get to college they don’t pursue the sport like they would with the 4 major sports. They probably go off into big careers in the law or big pharma instead :D

Looks like you have a leaky bucket that MLS has to fix. There is probably a world beating player who’s now in the Miltary or Chief of Police or Fire Service. The NFL wouldn’t let a world beating quarterback slip through the net like your soccer system currently is.
Crazy. Good stuff. Thanks Mike!
dt

User avatar
mostonmike
Posts: 1878
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:35 pm
Location: Manchester, England

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by mostonmike » Sat Dec 10, 2022 5:10 pm

Extraordinary stuff in the Quarter Finals

* Brazil, the favourites, lose on Penalties to Croatia
* Netherlands come from 0-2 down to level in the 11th minute of added time with one of the finest free kick goals in the history of the game only to lose on Penalties to Argentina
* Morocco become the first African country to reach the semi finals after a remarkable performance against Portugal
* England play France shortly for the final place in the last 4.

Semi Final lineup
Croatia v Argentina
Morocco v England or France

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 70939
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Dec 10, 2022 5:25 pm

mostonmike wrote:
Sat Dec 10, 2022 5:10 pm
Extraordinary stuff in the Quarter Finals

* Brazil, the favourites, lose on Penalties to Croatia
* Netherlands come from 0-2 down to level in the 11th minute of added time with one of the finest free kick goals in the history of the game only to lose on Penalties to Argentina
* Morocco become the first African country to reach the semi finals after a remarkable performance against Portugal
* England play France shortly for the final place in the last 4.

Semi Final lineup
Croatia v Argentina
Morocco v England or France
Good luck Brother! Go Union Jack!
dt

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 70939
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: World Cup 2022 Thread

Post by D-train » Sat Dec 10, 2022 5:49 pm

dt

Post Reply