Trade deadline trade ideas discussion

[gil]

I suppose it's good to have fun and do the occasional sanity check, but ...

I assume that in any trade, both parties want to feel they improved themselves. That is how any economic exchange works in a market system, isn't it? The supermarket sells me a loaf of bread for more money than it costs them to put it on the shelf, and I buy the loaf of bread for a price that is less than the cost of the time I would have to put into baking bread. We both "win."

But the trade value of a stud SS, for example, is specific to which team he might be traded to. If your trading partner has another stud SS, the value would be way less than if they had a black hole at SS (probably a bad analogy).

So it's kind of ridiculous to say "I give you 39.6, I give you 39.6, therefore, let's do this trade!"

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Here's there methodology. Let us know what you think.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/val ... -leaguers/

I think the methodology makes sense for some players and not others.

1. It severely undervalues younger prospects. Levi Stoutd/Isaiah Campbell only have values of 4.1... Brandon Williamson 5.8... all 3 of those guys have like a decade of control and have high ceilings as starters. You would have to trade 4 of these guys to acquire a Mitch Haniger... which we all know isn't a realistic scenario.

2. They hate some veteran pitchers who are on middling contracts. Don't know why... but Marco Gonzales does not have a trade value of -11.5. Kyle Hendricks does not have a trade value of -12.5. Both pitchers would fetch talent if they were traded. The idea that a player can have negative trade value... which basically means you could only trade that player for other players with negative trade value doesn't make sense. All it seemingly takes is one bad season to throw their algorithm off the rails. I'd be curious to see what Marco's value was at the start of the year... a stint of 11 bad starts for Marco shouldn't make him untradeable. In the same breath, they list Garrett Cole as only having a trade value of .8... but they list Mike Trout of having a trade value of 102.4... how does that work?

3. It severely overvalues players in their mid 20's who are either on manageable contracts or have 1-2 years left of control. Jose Berrios isn't worth a Logan Gilbert. German Marquez isn't worth 2x Logan Gilberts.

4. Their values are extremely volatile... they had Gleyber Torres worth 85 points as little as 3 weeks ago... he's now worth 48.5. I don't think he was worth that high to begin with, but there's no way a player can lose 40 points over a 3 week span. The same can be said for Ketel Marte... now he's on the IL with a hamstring thing... but 3 weeks ago he was valued at 75... he's now at 58.7... it just feels like they take players who are performing at their highest and slap an insane value on them... the algorithm should stay level headed... it doesn't.

5. They list Ronald Acuna as the highest valued player in baseball at 363 points. Meaning it would take 88.5x Levi Stoudt's to trade for him. If that's their way of saying Acuna will never be traded, fine... but on a website that requires you to make equal trades via a point system... giving a guy a value of 88.5x top 10-15 prospects doesn't add up.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

I suppose it's good to have fun and do the occasional sanity check, but ...

I assume that in any trade, both parties want to feel they improved themselves. That is how any economic exchange works in a market system, isn't it? The supermarket sells me a loaf of bread for more money than it costs them to put it on the shelf, and I buy the loaf of bread for a price that is less than the cost of the time I would have to put into baking bread. We both "win."

But the trade value of a stud SS, for example, is specific to which team he might be traded to. If your trading partner has another stud SS, the value would be way less than if they had a black hole at SS (probably a bad analogy).

So it's kind of ridiculous to say "I give you 39.6, I give you 39.6, therefore, let's do this trade!"

Exactly. Especially when there's not really a set value you can give any player.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

I still think Nelson Cruz is the clear upgrade. + they'll need to add a starting pitcher. Danny Duffy would cost them the least prospect wise and they'd be taking on a chunk of cash which we can afford.

1. JP Crawford SS
2. Mitch Hanger RF
3. Nelson Cruz DH
4. Kyle Seager 3B
5. Ty France 1B
6. Jake Fraley CF
7. Dylan Moore 2B/Util IF
8. Cal Raleigh C
9. Jarred Kelenic LF

Long 2B/OF / Torrens C / Marm 1B/OF

1. Kikuchi
2. Gilbert
3. Duffy
4. Flexen
5. Marco

I'd offer a top 10-15 prospect for Cruz + someone super young.

I'd offer a top 15-20 prospect for Duffy.

Trade Tom Murphy to the White Sox for reliever prospect Luke Schilling.

[bpj]

If they can get Cruz for nothing, I'd make that happen. I wouldn't trade anyone in the top 30 unless we've given up on them really. Evan White? Sure.

Otherwise I'd wait for the offseason and get Cruz+Semien+the best SP we can get our hands on.

I love the idea of offering Kikuchi the Qualifying Offer after options get rejected.

I'm still not sure we have room for everybody if the consensus is that we should go after a top of rotation arm.

Gilbert
Kikuchi
Flexen
Marco
Dunn

Personally, I'd be doing everything I can to trade Gonzales. He's the only one you have money committed to and he's as inconsistent as any of the others (or more).

[IStillLoveTheMs]

If they can get Cruz for nothing, I'd make that happen. I wouldn't trade anyone in the top 30 unless we've given up on them really. Evan White? Sure.

Otherwise I'd wait for the offseason and get Cruz+Semien+the best SP we can get our hands on.

I love the idea of offering Kikuchi the Qualifying Offer after options get rejected.

I'm still not sure we have room for everybody if the consensus is that we should go after a top of rotation arm.

Gilbert
Kikuchi
Flexen
Marco
Dunn

Personally, I'd be doing everything I can to trade Gonzales. He's the only one you have money committed to and he's as inconsistent as any of the others (or more).

I sincerely hope the Mariners aren't committed to Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield w. Kirby, Hancock and Williamson on the horizon.

It takes trading decently regarded prospects to acquire decently regarded talent... now you want them to sit on their hands and do basically nothing?

Jerry thankfully said that we have the prospect capital to go out and acquire real talent to help the ball club w.o it hurting our future... I very much hope he follows through on what he says... or else we may turn into the Padres trading 4 decent prospects for Austin Nola an injured reliever, and Dan Altavilla out of desperation because we didn't make the moves we needed to sooner.

[bpj]

If they can get Cruz for nothing, I'd make that happen. I wouldn't trade anyone in the top 30 unless we've given up on them really. Evan White? Sure.

Otherwise I'd wait for the offseason and get Cruz+Semien+the best SP we can get our hands on.

I love the idea of offering Kikuchi the Qualifying Offer after options get rejected.

I'm still not sure we have room for everybody if the consensus is that we should go after a top of rotation arm.

Gilbert
Kikuchi
Flexen
Marco
Dunn

Personally, I'd be doing everything I can to trade Gonzales. He's the only one you have money committed to and he's as inconsistent as any of the others (or more).

I sincerely hope the Mariners aren't committed to Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield w. Kirby, Hancock and Williamson on the horizon.

It takes trading decently regarded prospects to acquire decently regarded talent... now you want them to sit on their hands and do basically nothing?

Jerry thankfully said that we have the prospect capital to go out and acquire real talent to help the ball club w.o it hurting... I very much hope he follows through on what he says... or else we may turn into the Padres trading 4 decent prospects for Austin Nola an injured reliever, and Dan Altavilla out of desperation because we didn't make the moves we needed to sooner.

Oh, I'm sorry, are we contending now? You're ok with it now?

Before the season when talent was readily available, it wasn't worthwhile because we had no chance, we were nowhere near being a contender, now we should sell the farm to chase it?

[IStillLoveTheMs]

If they can get Cruz for nothing, I'd make that happen. I wouldn't trade anyone in the top 30 unless we've given up on them really. Evan White? Sure.

Otherwise I'd wait for the offseason and get Cruz+Semien+the best SP we can get our hands on.

I love the idea of offering Kikuchi the Qualifying Offer after options get rejected.

I'm still not sure we have room for everybody if the consensus is that we should go after a top of rotation arm.

Gilbert
Kikuchi
Flexen
Marco
Dunn

Personally, I'd be doing everything I can to trade Gonzales. He's the only one you have money committed to and he's as inconsistent as any of the others (or more).

I sincerely hope the Mariners aren't committed to Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield w. Kirby, Hancock and Williamson on the horizon.

It takes trading decently regarded prospects to acquire decently regarded talent... now you want them to sit on their hands and do basically nothing?

Jerry thankfully said that we have the prospect capital to go out and acquire real talent to help the ball club w.o it hurting... I very much hope he follows through on what he says... or else we may turn into the Padres trading 4 decent prospects for Austin Nola an injured reliever, and Dan Altavilla out of desperation because we didn't make the moves we needed to sooner.

Oh, I'm sorry, are we contending now? You're ok with it now?

Before the season when talent was readily available, it wasn't worthwhile because we had no chance, we were nowhere near being a contender, now we should sell the farm to chase it?

Selling the farm

Trading a Connor Phillips or Zach Deloach for a rental isn't "selling the farm."

Before the season we didn't have a lockdown bullpen featuring 3 pitchers nobody really wanted. We didn't have Kikuchi, Flexen and Gilbert pitching to ERA's in the middle 3's. We didn't have Jake Fraley playing a very quality OF and holding it down at the plate. We didn't have a JP Crawford hitting in the middle .700's OPS wise. We didn't have a Mitch Haniger dropping 20 bombs before the break -- all things nobody realistically anticipated.

Adding a Nelson Cruz and rental starting pitcher for a fun 2nd half run and offloading 2x prospects who look like they're gonna be blocked for all of eternity sounds like a fun time.

The draft is coming up... draft a new Connor Phillips or Zach Deloach. It's not like we're offloading the true talent to make a run here... a lot of teams have been crashing and burning bringing the M's back in it.

[bpj]

Sure, if it can be done without giving up anything meaningful, make it happen.

I wouldn't give up anybody ranked above Sam Carlson and Isaiah Campbell for rentals (including them). If they want to dip into the talent behind that point to make it happen, makes perfect sense.

This was always a near contending team, always going to be over/under performers, all they needed was a couple players to round it out and they sat on their thumbs.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Sure, if it can be done without giving up anything meaningful, make it happen.

I wouldn't give up anybody ranked above Sam Carlson and Isaiah Campbell for rentals (including them). If they want to dip into the talent behind that point to make it happen, makes perfect sense.

This was always a near contending team, always going to be over/under performers, all they needed was a couple players to round it out and they sat on their thumbs.

This wasn't a contending team w. Marge, Sadler, Newsome, Vest, Montero, Misiewicz "locking down" ( ) the bullpen behind Graveman. Imagine if Marge, Newsome and Sadler didn't get hurt... our bullpen would be effing horrific. It's not and that's pretty much out of luck.

This wasn't a contending team if Kickuchi pitched to his usual numbers and Flexen turned out to be a mediocre no. 5ish starter like what was anticipated.

Things have happened that weren't anticipated and its made for a surprisingly quality ball club that previously felt like fools gold. They've now been doing it long enough now that it feels like the real thing where only a couple pieces needed to be added to make a run. The fans deserve to see where 6-7 games over .500 and 2.5 games back at the All Star break can take us. Even if we fail, cool... being 2.5 back at the All Star breaking and trending up should make you want to go for it.

The prospects are rated differently by different publications... I'm not opposed to giving away a guy who is consistently ranked 10-20 because there's plenty more of those guys to draft and develop. Just don't trade any of the big names, only give up a couple of the middle-tier names and give it a go.