Offseason Plans

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Watching these playoff games and the way the pitchers are being used suggests that we need 2 aces this off-season and we could use Graveman back as well.

[ice99]

Let me preface this by saying to take these WAR estimates with a grain of salt.

As a baseline with no moves (other than Seager buyout), the lineup looks something like:

JP, SS, 3.0 WAR
France, 1B, 3.5
Haniger, RF, 3.0
Toro, 2B, 2.0
Kelenic, CF, 2.0
Murphy, C, 1.5
Fraley, LF, 1.5
Torrens, DH, 1.0
Moore, 3B, 0

Current lineup, 17.5 WAR.

If they sign Gausman, then

Gausman, 4.0
Marco, 3.0
Flexen, 3.0
Gilbert, 3.0
Dunn/Sheffield/Brash/Kikuchi, 1.0

Rotation 14 WAR

According to Fangraphs top bullpen in terms of WAR was the Rays at 7.9 WAR. The M's came in at 7.0 WAR. I'm predicting some gain at 7.5 WAR.

A zero WAR team is supposed to be good for 47.7 wins. Give the bench 0.3 WAR.

This gives a baseline with Gausman is 87 wins.

Adding Semien (est. 4 WAR) allows Toro to move off 2B to 3B, displacing Moore. This brings it up to 91 wins.

I like bpj's idea of getting Schwarber (est. 2.5 WAR), which would upgrade Torrens and project the total to 92.5 wins.

Revisiting with WAR projections. They will fluctuate during the offseason. I had Gausman at 4.0 WAR, Semien 4.0, Schwarber 2.5. The Steamer projections are out, the ZIPS aren't out yet. Steamer has Gausman at 3.6, Semien at 4.4, Schwarber at 2.5.

Estimated lineup was 23 WAR. Estimate rotation was 14 WAR.

Notes:
Steamer seems to like Raleigh, so I'm using a combined catcher of Muprhy and Raliegh WAR. They also giving a higher WAR to Lewis than Fraley so I'm using Lewis for WAR purposes.

Lineup:
Semien 4.4
Schwarber 2.5
JP, SS, 3.0
France, 1B, 2.9
Haniger, RF, 2.2
Toro, 2B, 2.7
Kelenic, CF, 1.6
Murphy, Raleigh 2.3
Lewis, LF, 1.3

22.9 Steamer WAR.

Rotation
Gausman 3.6
Gilbert 2.2
Flexen 1.8
Gonzales 1.5
Brash/Dunn/Kikuchi 3.2

12.3 Steamer WAR

The Steamer WAR for the relievers seems off. They had Ken Giles at 0 WAR a week ago, they still have Steckenrider at 0 WAR. I'd wait for the ZIPS projections, but I'm not going to revisit this.

23+14
vs.
22.9+12.3

92.5 wins vs 90.7 wins. I'll say that the M's have at least 2.3 more wins than their projections.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Watching these playoff games and the way the pitchers are being used suggests that we need 2 aces this off-season and we could use Graveman back as well.

I am 100% with you on Graveman. Don't fuck around Jerry. I could see us bringing Tyler Anderson back again.

How effective would Y. Kikuchi be as a reliever? He throws 94-96 as a starter right now. Could he push a 100mph as a 6th or 7th inning guy?

[ice99]

Watching these playoff games and the way the pitchers are being used suggests that we need 2 aces this off-season and we could use Graveman back as well.

I am 100% with you on Graveman. Don't fuck around Jerry. I could see us bringing Tyler Anderson back again.

How effective would Y. Kikuchi be as a reliever? He throws 94-96 as a starter right now. Could he push a 100mph as a 6th or 7th inning guy?

They need a lefty reliever in addition to Misiewicz. They'll probably add Ray Kerr to the 40 man to protect him for the Rule 5, but he's probably Plan B, depth at AAA.

[rockycola]

Watching these playoff games and the way the pitchers are being used suggests that we need 2 aces this off-season and we could use Graveman back as well.

I am 100% with you on Graveman. Don't fuck around Jerry. I could see us bringing Tyler Anderson back again.

How effective would Y. Kikuchi be as a reliever? He throws 94-96 as a starter right now. Could he push a 100mph as a 6th or 7th inning guy?

They need a lefty reliever in addition to Misiewicz. They'll probably add Ray Kerr to the 40 man to protect him for the Rule 5, but he's probably Plan B, depth at AAA.

From top to bottom there's a dearth of LH pitchers in the organization. Kerr is nothing special but I agree with you unless they score 1 or 2 in free agency or via trade.
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RayKerrLH_RP.PNG (40.48 KiB) Viewed 669 times

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RayKerr_Stats.PNG (42.75 KiB) Viewed 669 times

[ice99]

I am 100% with you on Graveman. Don't fuck around Jerry. I could see us bringing Tyler Anderson back again.

How effective would Y. Kikuchi be as a reliever? He throws 94-96 as a starter right now. Could he push a 100mph as a 6th or 7th inning guy?

They need a lefty reliever in addition to Misiewicz. They'll probably add Ray Kerr to the 40 man to protect him for the Rule 5, but he's probably Plan B, depth at AAA.

From top to bottom there's a dearth of LH pitchers in the organization. Kerr is nothing special but I agree with you unless they score 1 or 2 in free agency or via trade.
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RayKerrLH_RP.PNG
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RayKerr_Stats.PNG

Kerr has potential with an upper 90's fastball.

Ray Kerr, LHPKerr has a big fastball into the upper-90s and has touched triple digits, setting up an average to above-average slider that has gained consistency over the course of the season. When he locates, he’s devastating. Kerr has started in the past, and his athleticism offers a chance at repeatable mechanics that lead to more consistent command, which is the biggest obstacle in front of him and the majors. Kerr posted a 15-1 K/BB ratio over nine innings in July.

[Sexymarinersfan]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/ ... egins.html

The offseason begins. Key notes:

November 3: The beginning of a five-day period where teams and players must decide whether to exercise or decline contract options and opt-out clauses for the 2022 season. Eligible free agents cannot sign with anyone but their current team for five more days.

November 7, 4:00 pm CST: The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers (one-year, $18.4MM contracts) to eligible free agents. For a breakdown of the draft choices teams would forfeit by signing a qualified free agent, see here.

November 8: Free agency officially opens.

November 8-11: General managers’ meetings, hosted in Carlsbad, California.

November 17: Deadline for players tagged with a qualifying offer to accept or reject the QO.

November 19: Deadline for teams to add players to the 40-man roster to keep them from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

December 1, 11:59 pm: Expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. If MLB and the MLBPA do not agree on a new CBA by then, the league may institute a lockout that freezes teams’ ability to make transactions until negotiations are resolved.

December 2: The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

December 6-9: Winter meetings scheduled to take place in Orlando, Florida.

December 8: Rule 5 draft.

December 15: Conclusion of the 2020-21 international amateur signing period. Typically scheduled to run from July through June, the 2020-21 and 2021-22 international signing periods were delayed to run from January through December as part of MLB’s COVID-19 rules changes.

January 14, 2022: Date for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures. Teams and players are still free to settle and avoid arbitration after this date, although many clubs elect to proceed with a “file-and-trial” strategy — essentially deciding to proceed to a hearing with any players with whom a settlement is not reached by then.

January 15, 2022: The scheduled start of the 2021-22 international amateur signing period. The 2021-22 period is scheduled to run through December 15, 2022.

February 26, 2022: First games of Spring Training.

March 31, 2022: Opening Day.

Monday cannot get here fast enough!!

[D-train]

Watching these playoff games and the way the pitchers are being used suggests that we need 2 aces this off-season and we could use Graveman back as well.

I am 100% with you on Graveman. Don't fuck around Jerry. I could see us bringing Tyler Anderson back again.

How effective would Y. Kikuchi be as a reliever? He throws 94-96 as a starter right now. Could he push a 100mph as a 6th or 7th inning guy?

We can't have a 17 man pen. We have plenty of relievers. If Graveman is willing to give another hometown discount then fine but he had a 1.40 WHIP With the Astros so I think we traded him at the right time. I don't see any reason to press our luck with him.

[AT Funchal-Madeira]

Kerr has had some remarkable outings this year velocity wise, but he is short of the mark with his control. I don't see him as a high leverage pitcher at all yet. And he's not young...

[ice99]

Kerr has had some remarkable outings this year velocity wise, but he is short of the mark with his control. I don't see him as a high leverage pitcher at all yet. And he's not young...

Sure, control is the issue, otherwise he'd been a Sept callup. But he probably gets protected for the Rule 5.