Ms vs Angels

[Seattle or Bust]

That was pre projection era. lol

Point being, it's really not impressive for a website to say "oh, Dylan Moore had a .615 OPS last year? Ok. He will hit for a .650 OPS this year." How on God's green earth would they know that? And what would they say if he hits for a .750 OPS? What if he catches absolute fire like a Max Muncy and has a .900 OPS? Do they apologize?

Baseball projections systems always compare their projections to the results (and compare their projections and results to the projections and results of other projection systems). It's a competitive business.

A basic understanding of baseball analytics is recommended:

https://library.fangraphs.com/getting-started/

... at least an understanding of basic statistics.

Analytics power most industries, not just baseball.

I mean fine. I understand basic statistics.

But I don't find it impressive AT ALL when a website like Fangraphs looks at a below-average baseball player and says, "they're going to continue to be below average."

I would find it immensely more impressive if they looked at a below-average baseball player and predicted that they would break out.

The Mariners aren't starting Jarred Kelenic in left field because they think he's going to hit for a .729 OPS.

[D-train]

Point being, it's really not impressive for a website to say "oh, Dylan Moore had a .615 OPS last year? Ok. He will hit for a .650 OPS this year." How on God's green earth would they know that? And what would they say if he hits for a .750 OPS? What if he catches absolute fire like a Max Muncy and has a .900 OPS? Do they apologize?

Baseball projections systems always compare their projections to the results (and compare their projections and results to the projections and results of other projection systems). It's a competitive business.

A basic understanding of baseball analytics is recommended:

https://library.fangraphs.com/getting-started/

... at least an understanding of basic statistics.

Analytics power most industries, not just baseball.

I mean fine. I understand basic statistics.

But I don't find it impressive AT ALL when a website like Fangraphs looks at a below-average baseball player and says, "they're going to continue to be below average."

I would find it immensely more impressive if they looked at a below-average baseball player and predicted that they would break out.

The Mariners aren't starting Jarred Kelenic in left field because they think he's going to hit for a .729 OPS.

He was at .615 last season so that is a significant 19% jump. If he does that two years in a row then he is at .864 in his age 23 season and we are in business.

[Seattle or Bust]

Baseball projections systems always compare their projections to the results (and compare their projections and results to the projections and results of other projection systems). It's a competitive business.

A basic understanding of baseball analytics is recommended:

https://library.fangraphs.com/getting-started/

... at least an understanding of basic statistics.

Analytics power most industries, not just baseball.

I mean fine. I understand basic statistics.

But I don't find it impressive AT ALL when a website like Fangraphs looks at a below-average baseball player and says, "they're going to continue to be below average."

I would find it immensely more impressive if they looked at a below-average baseball player and predicted that they would break out.

The Mariners aren't starting Jarred Kelenic in left field because they think he's going to hit for a .729 OPS.

He was at .615 last season so that is a significant 19% jump. If he does that two years in a row then he is at .864 in his age 23 season and we are in business.

But it wouldn't be surprising given his pedigree if he were to hit for an OPS in the upper .700's if not lower .800's.

I think Fangraphs projections take too much of the human/athlete element out of it. They don't consider what an athlete is capable of if they realize their full potential. They're too safe. And by being safe, they can say, "hey look, we got most of the mediocre players right, so what we say is accurate!" Cool, anyone can do that.

In no way do I think Kelenic is Mike Trout. But Trout dropped a .672 OPS in 2011. Everyone thought Trout was going to become a stud. People were saying he was likely to become the best player on the Angels. His 2012 ZiPS projection was .267/.338/.414/.752. He dropped a .963 OPS and did so for the next decade.

Oh and here's a fun little factoid, Trout had a .486 OPS in 18 games in the month of September in 2011. If Kelenic did that M's fans would be hanging him by his nuts (which they mostly are given his start).

[D-train]

I mean fine. I understand basic statistics.

But I don't find it impressive AT ALL when a website like Fangraphs looks at a below-average baseball player and says, "they're going to continue to be below average."

I would find it immensely more impressive if they looked at a below-average baseball player and predicted that they would break out.

The Mariners aren't starting Jarred Kelenic in left field because they think he's going to hit for a .729 OPS.

He was at .615 last season so that is a significant 19% jump. If he does that two years in a row then he is at .864 in his age 23 season and we are in business.

But it wouldn't be surprising given his pedigree if he were to hit for an OPS in the upper .700's if not lower .800's.

I think Fangraphs projections take too much of the human/athlete element out of it. They don't consider what an athlete is capable of if they realize their full potential. They're too safe. And by being safe, they can say, "hey look, we got most of the mediocre players right, so what we say is accurate!" Cool, anyone can do that.

In no way do I think Kelenic is Mike Trout. But Trout dropped a .672 OPS in 2011. Everyone thought Trout was going to become a stud. People were saying he was likely to become the best player on the Angels. His 2012 ZiPS projection was .267/.338/.414/.752. He dropped a .963 OPS and did so for the next decade.

Yes, you are correct, its objective statistical analysis based on his minor league and major league stats. They don't adjust for anything other than age. btw I just looked closely at his minor leagues stats. They are not close to elite. He never hit over .300 for a full season and he only hit .253 in AA. Granted he was young but still. I think he was WAY over hyped. Based on the hype I was expecting Jim Edmonds but now its looking more like a Kyle Seager type career minus the good defense.

btw Trout was only 19 and it was only 135 PAs vs. 21 and 377 PAs for JK.

If they projected guys with .673 OPSs to go to .963 as a 20 yo they wouldn't be right very often.

[Seattle or Bust]

He was at .615 last season so that is a significant 19% jump. If he does that two years in a row then he is at .864 in his age 23 season and we are in business.

But it wouldn't be surprising given his pedigree if he were to hit for an OPS in the upper .700's if not lower .800's.

I think Fangraphs projections take too much of the human/athlete element out of it. They don't consider what an athlete is capable of if they realize their full potential. They're too safe. And by being safe, they can say, "hey look, we got most of the mediocre players right, so what we say is accurate!" Cool, anyone can do that.

In no way do I think Kelenic is Mike Trout. But Trout dropped a .672 OPS in 2011. Everyone thought Trout was going to become a stud. People were saying he was likely to become the best player on the Angels. His 2012 ZiPS projection was .267/.338/.414/.752. He dropped a .963 OPS and did so for the next decade.

Yes, you are correct, its objective statistical analysis based on his minor league and major league stats. They don't adjust for anything other than age. btw I just looked closely at his minor leagues stats. They are not close to elite. He never hit over .300 for a full season and he only hit .253 in AA. Granted he was young but still. I think he was WAY over hyped. Based on the hype I was expecting Jim Edmonds but now its looking more like a Kyle Seager type career minus the good defense.

btw Trout was only 19 and it was only 135 PAs vs. 21 and 377 PAs for JK.

If they projected guys with .673 OPSs to go to .963 as a 20 yo they wouldn't be right very often.

Yep. But it sure would be impressive if they did right? That would be the real work.

Under their formula, it doesn't matter if a player breaks out or a player bombs because the league will mostly end up around the same average as the year prior.

I'd subscribe to Fangraphs if they could put out a list of "20 players who could destroy their projections" and they got like half the list right.

[harmony]

But it wouldn't be surprising given his pedigree if he were to hit for an OPS in the upper .700's if not lower .800's.

I think Fangraphs projections take too much of the human/athlete element out of it. They don't consider what an athlete is capable of if they realize their full potential. They're too safe. And by being safe, they can say, "hey look, we got most of the mediocre players right, so what we say is accurate!" Cool, anyone can do that.

In no way do I think Kelenic is Mike Trout. But Trout dropped a .672 OPS in 2011. Everyone thought Trout was going to become a stud. People were saying he was likely to become the best player on the Angels. His 2012 ZiPS projection was .267/.338/.414/.752. He dropped a .963 OPS and did so for the next decade.

Yes, you are correct, its objective statistical analysis based on his minor league and major league stats. They don't adjust for anything other than age. btw I just looked closely at his minor leagues stats. They are not close to elite. He never hit over .300 for a full season and he only hit .253 in AA. Granted he was young but still. I think he was WAY over hyped. Based on the hype I was expecting Jim Edmonds but now its looking more like a Kyle Seager type career minus the good defense.

btw Trout was only 19 and it was only 135 PAs vs. 21 and 377 PAs for JK.

If they projected guys with .673 OPSs to go to .963 as a 20 yo they wouldn't be right very often.

Yep. But it sure would be impressive if they did right? That would be the real work.

Under their formula, it doesn't matter if a player breaks out or a player bombs because the league will mostly end up around the same average as the year prior.

I'd subscribe to Fangraphs if they could put out a list of "20 players who could destroy their projections" and they got like half the list right.

Good luck finding those outlier accurate projections.

That's the whole point: Analytics provide mid-range outcomes with the understanding that results could vary in either direction.

[Donn Beach]

And it's analytics, what can be qualified it's based on taking the "human" element out

[Seattle or Bust]

And it's analytics, what can be qualified it's based on taking the "human" element out

Great, but I will never apply that to a Jarred Kelenic and like a robot go "beep, bop, boop... he will hit for a .729 OPS and account for 1.1 WAR."

I certainly won't ever go say, "well ZiPS projects this" as if it has any influence on how he's actually going to perform.

I may say that's probably an accurate statement for a Tom Murphy for instance, but not a kid who has the tools to be a superstar and has only played 90 games. We have NO idea how he's gonna do.

[harmony]

And it's analytics, what can be qualified it's based on taking the "human" element out

Great, but I will never apply that to a Jarred Kelenic and like a robot go "beep, bop, boop... he will hit for a .729 OPS and account for 1.1 WAR."

I certainly won't ever go say, "well ZiPS projects this" as if it has any influence on how he's actually going to perform.

I may say that's probably an accurate statement for a Tom Murphy for instance, but not a kid who has the tools to be a superstar and has only played 90 games. We have NO idea how he's gonna do.

The projections of the major services take into account not only Jarred Kelenic's 2021 MLB stats but his age, progression and minor league stats.

Kelenic carries understandable risks but I'm buying into his upside in hopes the projections are conservative.

[Seattle or Bust]

And it's analytics, what can be qualified it's based on taking the "human" element out

Great, but I will never apply that to a Jarred Kelenic and like a robot go "beep, bop, boop... he will hit for a .729 OPS and account for 1.1 WAR."

I certainly won't ever go say, "well ZiPS projects this" as if it has any influence on how he's actually going to perform.

I may say that's probably an accurate statement for a Tom Murphy for instance, but not a kid who has the tools to be a superstar and has only played 90 games. We have NO idea how he's gonna do.

The projections of the major services take into account not only Jarred Kelenic's 2021 MLB stats but his age, progression and minor league stats.

Kelenic carries understandable risks but I'm buying into his upside in hopes the projections are conservative.

I'm hoping that conservative is a massive understatement. If it's not, the M's now have a little hole in the offense that they can't really afford.

Like I said, I'm hoping for upper .700's OPS at worst. I'm expecting lower .800's. He's supposed to be an anomaly.