How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
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Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
I'm going to say 81-83.
I hate to be a downer, but I'm a little worried that the M's are going to get off to a slow start which could do a lot to hurt our chances. The Twins and White Sox in the first 7 in the cold is no bargain and our reward for the terrible weather is hosting Houston for the next 3 after that. If we get out of the first 10 games 4-6 I'll be pleasantly surprised.
May is brutal and the M's need to stay afloat, so fingers cross.
The Astros followed their breakout 86-win 2015 with an 84-win 2016 and there's no arguing that the '16 team had more talent. I see the M's following a similar path and then becoming the favorite in 2023 w. more money spent and additions made.
I hate to be a downer, but I'm a little worried that the M's are going to get off to a slow start which could do a lot to hurt our chances. The Twins and White Sox in the first 7 in the cold is no bargain and our reward for the terrible weather is hosting Houston for the next 3 after that. If we get out of the first 10 games 4-6 I'll be pleasantly surprised.
May is brutal and the M's need to stay afloat, so fingers cross.
The Astros followed their breakout 86-win 2015 with an 84-win 2016 and there's no arguing that the '16 team had more talent. I see the M's following a similar path and then becoming the favorite in 2023 w. more money spent and additions made.
Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
Chose 90-92, I figure the additions and subtractions could be almost equal. Third base defense is worse and we’re not sure about the bat, however Tore starts at third at some point and Saurez is ejected then defense should be equal and bat slightly better in my opinion, we added a top of the rotation starter and I believe Brash or Kirby as a fifth starter will be better than what we had last year.
- seattlefan-daBronx
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Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
I went with 90-92 wins.
imho the kids will offset the homerun production lost with Seager.
The wins however will not come about via the homerun ball but rather an increased production in singles and doubles.
We had no problem getting on base last year and probably have some kind of record for left on base but could not bring those folks home.
I think Frazier, Toro, Julio, Eugenio keep the lines moving...we will win the small ball game. We definitely have the park for it.
The additions of seasoned vets with a mix of 2nd and 3rd year newbies and then the exciting Julio rookie factor....
shape up to be one special season and we finally make the playoffs.
Please note: All of the above is contingent upon our starting pitchers staying healthy and our bullpen not taking a step back.
imho the kids will offset the homerun production lost with Seager.
The wins however will not come about via the homerun ball but rather an increased production in singles and doubles.
We had no problem getting on base last year and probably have some kind of record for left on base but could not bring those folks home.
I think Frazier, Toro, Julio, Eugenio keep the lines moving...we will win the small ball game. We definitely have the park for it.
The additions of seasoned vets with a mix of 2nd and 3rd year newbies and then the exciting Julio rookie factor....
shape up to be one special season and we finally make the playoffs.
Please note: All of the above is contingent upon our starting pitchers staying healthy and our bullpen not taking a step back.
Pronouns: Kiss/My/Ass
Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
Actually we had a huge problem with getting on base last season.our on base percentage was one of the worst in baseball
dt
- seattlefan-daBronx
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Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
Sorry I don't always have the "technical" baseball lingo you dudes have...I really mean left on base in scoring position....we didn't bring 'em home to score.
MLB Team Runners Left in Scoring Position per Gamehttps://www.teamrankings.com › mlb › stat › runners-le...
Rank Team 2021 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2020
1 Seattle 3.01 5.00 5.00 2.85 3.17 3.43
2 Cleveland 3.10 2.67 4.00 3.16 3.04 3.39
3 Detroit 3.10 4.67 6.00 3.11 3.10 2.91
Pronouns: Kiss/My/Ass
Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
Doesn't that say we left the fewest on base? So we either didn't have enough on or we already drove them in.seattlefan-daBronx wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 6:20 pmSorry I don't always have the "technical" baseball lingo you dudes have...I really mean left on base in scoring position....we didn't bring 'em home to score.
MLB Team Runners Left in Scoring Position per Gamehttps://www.teamrankings.com › mlb › stat › runners-le...
Rank Team 2021 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2020
1 Seattle 3.01 5.00 5.00 2.85 3.17 3.43
2 Cleveland 3.10 2.67 4.00 3.16 3.04 3.39
3 Detroit 3.10 4.67 6.00 3.11 3.10 2.91
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Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
It's a pretty simple formula to follow:
Have a top 15 team both OPS and ERA wise and you're a virtual lock to make the playoffs.
Finish in the bottom 10 in either category and you've all but kissed your chances goodbye. Of late, only Milwaukee has flirted with this and made the playoffs.
The M's finished 27th in OPS in 2021. They finished 16th in ERA. They would have been probably the biggest enigma to make the playoffs ever with those stats. It's going to take a huge improvement for us to be truly competitive.
Have a top 15 team both OPS and ERA wise and you're a virtual lock to make the playoffs.
Finish in the bottom 10 in either category and you've all but kissed your chances goodbye. Of late, only Milwaukee has flirted with this and made the playoffs.
The M's finished 27th in OPS in 2021. They finished 16th in ERA. They would have been probably the biggest enigma to make the playoffs ever with those stats. It's going to take a huge improvement for us to be truly competitive.
- Sexymarinersfan
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Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
And yet, the Braves only won 88 games and won the World Series. What scares me most right now is the starting rotation. Flexen did not look sharp at all this Spring. I think our pitching could face some serious regression this year. Gilbert seemed to always have that one bad inning, just like last year. Stoudt and Kirby will be in Seattle before the year is done. I think we still need to be on the hunt for a Frontline starter. Luis Castillo is still my preferred choice, but that'd most likely cost us N. Marte and I'm not down with that.
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Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
First you need a division that allows u to win 88 games and make the playoffs. We don't have that luxury.Sexymarinersfan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:41 pmAnd yet, the Braves only won 88 games and won the World Series. What scares me most right now is the starting rotation. Flexen did not look sharp at all this Spring. I think our pitching could face some serious regression this year. Gilbert seemed to always have that one bad inning, just like last year. Stoudt and Kirby will be in Seattle before the year is done. I think we still need to be on the hunt for a Frontline starter. Luis Castillo is still my preferred choice, but that'd most likely cost us N. Marte and I'm not down with that.
The Braves finished 8th in OPS and 8th in ERA. A very well-balanced team who had a Pathag of 94 wins, so they underachieved during the regular season and came to form in the post season.
I want the Mariners to be a statistically dominant team. That's where the real winners come from. Otherwise, you've gotten mostly lucky and the odds of sustaining that success are low.
- Sexymarinersfan
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Re: How many wins for Mariners. (Not a contest)
Then we definitely need to score a lot more runs this season, and more than we're giving up. We had some pretty bad blowouts last year. Losing Giles and Sadler before they even began the season definitely hurts, but there's still time to bolster the club either through MiLB promotions or a trade. I think I'm more confident in the lineup than the starting pitching, although history suggests otherwise.Seattle or Bust wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:53 pmFirst you need a division that allows u to win 88 games and make the playoffs. We don't have that luxury.Sexymarinersfan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:41 pmAnd yet, the Braves only won 88 games and won the World Series. What scares me most right now is the starting rotation. Flexen did not look sharp at all this Spring. I think our pitching could face some serious regression this year. Gilbert seemed to always have that one bad inning, just like last year. Stoudt and Kirby will be in Seattle before the year is done. I think we still need to be on the hunt for a Frontline starter. Luis Castillo is still my preferred choice, but that'd most likely cost us N. Marte and I'm not down with that.
The Braves finished 8th in OPS and 8th in ERA. A very well-balanced team who had a Pathag of 94 wins, so they underachieved during the regular season and came to form in the post season.
I want the Mariners to be a statistically dominant team. That's where the real winners come from. Otherwise, you've gotten mostly lucky and the odds of sustaining that success are low.