Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[desbcoach]

A$$tros agree to a 5 year deal with Josh Hader - $95MM.

Insane.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/ ... tract.html

His last 3 years have been his worse, last year was rebound but how much is that is attributed for padres home park. Here is hoping he continues down from 2022 and 2021

[D-train]

I can't wait until Whit Merrifield retires so I NEVER have to read about him being connected to us again.

Merrifield 592 PAs 0.7 WAR
Moore 165 PAs 0.5 WAR

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1771816/ ... ee-agency/

[bpj]

OK - I sense you're throwing this out there to troll us a little! So, I'll bite.

I've been a big fan of signing Snell for a while now. I get that the pundits on this board are panning the idea based on front office stinginess. And I get that - prima facae, I agree with you all. It's a long shot, at best, and the asking price is too high.

But I also think that there is a small chance they might sign him, and I will take any number greater than zero.

Snell makes sense on every level: he is a legit, TOR, lefty. He's a 2 time Cy Young winner, and 31 he's still got gas in the tank. He was worth 6.0 WAR last season and had a dominant 2.25 ERA. Ridiculous stats. And as a Seattle native, he's on record as saying he wants to pitch for the M's.

But, his agent (Boras) is seeking a 9 year deal in the $270MM range. The M's wouldn't do this, and I wouldn't want them to. This is why Snell is still unsigned in mid-January. Teams (not named the Skankees) are waiting for the market to bring down the asking price.

And there are warning signs. Snell has only pitched enough innings to qualify for the Cy Young twice in his career (the 2 years he won the Cy Young). You have to pitch 162 innings to qualify for the ERA title, and apart from those 2 seasons, his next highest total was 129 innings. He has never pitched a complete game. He has never averaged six innings per start in a season. The guy is not an innings eater. He's 31 years old, and his agent wants a 9 year contract?

I think the M's go for a shorter contract with opt outs - say, 5 years at $150MM with a mutual option for year 6.

Good stuff Big Maple!

I think people look at his BB% as a red flag.

I watched him pitch last season and what stuck out to me was that he would pitch around the big bats pretty blatantly. So he would give up some walks to the guys who could hurt him, but then he'd get the next guy out, usually a strikeout.

His style made all the sense in the world to me. I think he may have put it all together mentally and is in his prime.

Question is how long the velocity lasts because once the K% goes, he's nothing special, he'll start getting beat up. He's only had one season early in his career (96.0mph) where his average velocity was higher than 2023 (95.7).

I think a Luis Castillo contract would be a good deal, other than that, why bother.

And if there aren't any solid offers on the table for Woo or Miller to bring in a MOTO bat, it's probably an incremental improvement anyways that doesn't make sense at $30M/yr when Miller is 800k.

Seems to be a pitcher who uses the walk strategically, and he has the strikeout rate that limits the damage.

[D-train]

At this point in the off season he may have taken his hat off, the question is will he put it in his hand and stand on the corner of Edgar and Dave yelling up to Jerry to sign him. lol

[Big_Maple]

Question is how long the velocity lasts because once the K% goes, he's nothing special, he'll start getting beat up. He's only had one season early in his career (96.0mph) where his average velocity was higher than 2023 (95.7).

I read somewhere that his worst pitch is his fastball. He has good offspeed stuff, but not a commanding fastball. When you look at the guys with staying power - the Verlnaders and Scherzers, for example - they have nasty heaters. Ergo - Snell may be far less effective in 5 years than studs like Verlander were at that age. A 9 year contract maybe way too risky (unless you offload him in 3 years like a Robbie Ray)

[bhofferb]

I saw this in The Athletic today. My first thought was "Don't let Jerry see this"

‘That’s why I still play’: At 46, Fernando Rodney pitches on, seeking an MLB comeback

Every morning starts the same for Fernando Rodney. The longtime Major League closer walks out to the stairwell in his apartment complex and sprints up and down its 25 flights, a grueling routine that’s often followed by a lengthy run along the beach.

Rodney will turn 47 years old in two months. Casual fans likely remember him for the way he wore his tilted cap or his bow-and-arrow post-save celebration. By the numbers, his legacy is set as a closer who excelled and endured, registering 327 career saves, earning three All-Star selections and a World Series ring. At his best, he was a dominant force in the ninth inning.

But here’s the thing about Rodney’s legacy: he doesn’t want it written in full just yet. He may no longer be in the majors, but he hasn’t given up on the dream of once again stepping on a big-league mound. More importantly, he still believes there’s something in his tank — and as long as that’s the case, he’s not planning to stop.

“I’m trying to get to 50,” Rodney said flatly, before bellowing out a laugh. Even he knows how ridiculous it sounds. “That’s my guess right now. I still touch 95, 94, 93, 92 when I want. I think there can be three more years.

“I want to reach there, then see how I feel.”

Rodney last pitched in MLB for the World Series champion Nationals in 2019, when he signed a mid-season free agent deal after being DFA’d by Oakland. Then 42, Rodney had a 4.05 ERA over 33 1/3 innings, with two saves. His fastball velocity averaged 93.8 miles per hour.

Those two saves, however, left him two short of Francisco Cordero’s 329. Rodney is 18th on the all-time list, one place behind Cordero. Passing Cordero was high on Rodney’s list of priorities because Cordero is also from the Dominican Republic and is the nation’s saves leader. Eclipsing him would be momentous.

Rodney signed a minor-league deal with the Astros in 2020, hoping for a shot at those elusive saves, but he was released from the Alternate Training Site after not pitching in a game. That was his final big-league chance — with his agent confirming that offers, even for minor-league deals, have evaporated.

Yet he still hasn’t given up on his comeback attempt, with stints for the Toros de Tijuana, Leones de Yucatan and Diablos Rojos de Mexico of the Mexican League over the past three years, capped by a 4.14 ERA and two saves for the Gigantes in the Dominican Winter League this winter. He is now fielding offers from Mexican League teams, and will likely pitch for the Campeche Pirates this year. The Pirates play in the 4,190-capacity Estadio Nelson Barrera Romellón, and most of his teammates would be half his age or even younger.

He takes pride in being a mentor to those younger teammates and views it as a central facet of his continued baseball existence. He said he’s an inspiration for them, and also sometimes the butt of their jokes — one being that they introduce him as the team’s top young prospect.

Rodney has emerged as a mentor to his much younger teammates.
For Rodney, his pursuit of longevity transcends the league where it takes place. He’s only known baseball. His oldest son was born during his rookie season. Now, that boy is a 25-year-old man. His 18-year-old and 15-year-old both say they want to play baseball.

Rodney has six children in total, one as young as seven. All can look up to what he’s doing. Even if it means less time spent with them, he’s setting an example, and not just for them. Forty-six-year-old former big-league pitcher Raúl Valdés told Rodney that his journey compelled him to keep going in Mexico, even if a decade has passed since his last game with the Astros in 2014.

Because for Rodney, all that matters is playing the game, whether that’s in the big leagues, the Dominican Republic, or in Mexico. He is chasing the Dominican save record, yes, but he is also realistic about his chances and recognizes that records and major-league offers are secondary. He simply refuses to give up playing a sport that’s defined his entire professional life.

“He might be the toughest pitcher I’ve ever managed,” said soon-to-be Hall of Fame Tigers manager Jim Leyland. “He was a warrior. He was strong as a bull. I think he’s been pitching with a torn labrum for 15 years. I’ve had a lot of pitchers. I’ve had nobody that was any tougher than Fernando Rodney.

“He loves the game. He loves the competition. It’s been his whole life.”

And so he keeps going. There’s a short list of people older than Rodney to play in the majors, and most are from more than a century ago. The more modern names include pitcher Jamie Moyer, who played his final game at 49 years old in 2012, and infielder Julio Franco, who played his final game at age 49 in 2007. Pitchers Phil Niekro (48), Jesse Orosco (46) and Randy Johnson (46) all had incredible longevity

Those names provide Rodney some inspiration. And there is some reason to believe he could still be successful at a higher level. Rodney’s changeup, which doesn’t require incredible velocity, is his best pitch.

Lloyd McClendon, who coached Rodney in Detroit and managed him in Seattle, used the baseball colloquialism “Bugs Bunny changeup” to describe it, a reference to the cartoon rabbit throwing a pitch that slowed up just in time for a hitter to swing through it.

Rodney allowed a sub .200 batting average on his changeup from 2010-18. In 2019, the batting average against climbed to .203. It’s allowed him to still pitch professionally, even as his fastball velocity has dipped slightly.

“Being able to see him in the big leagues, and being able to see him in Mexico, nothing’s changed,” said Javy Guerra, who was Rodney’s teammate with the Nationals in 2019 and with Tijuana in 2022. “Obviously the venue’s changed. But as far as the stuff? It’s still there. I just think the game has changed so much that it doesn’t value the older vets as much.”

There are also clear reasons why it would be difficult to envision him getting another shot, starting with the walk issues that have plagued him throughout his career. He posted a career 11.4 percent walk rate in the big leagues, and it’s been a part of his tenure in Mexico, as well. In 2023, he walked 20 batters in 41 2/3 innings.

That’s the dichotomy of Rodney. At his best, he was an all-time great. His 2012 season is in the pantheon of reliever campaigns. He posted a 0.60 ERA over 74 2/3 innings. His WHIP was 0.77, while saving 48 games.

Less than three years later, he was DFA’d by the Mariners with a 5.68 ERA. He was swiftly picked up by the Cubs and promptly allowed just one run over the final 12 innings he pitched that year.

That’s partly why he bounced around, playing the part of the hired gun. After spending his first eight seasons with the Tigers, Rodney pitched for the Angels, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Diamondbacks, Twins, A’s and Nationals. Every team knew they might get the best reliever in the game. Or they might be signing a pitcher not reliable enough to be on the active roster

“I don’t know what they think, but they closed the door for a lot of good players,” Rodney said. “I feel like I can pitch in the big leagues because I throw strikes and get outs. My fastball and my changeup has been good.”

Rodney is clearly confident in his ability. But cockiness didn’t define him, even if his mound presence wove that personality trait into his public persona.

McClendon once called Rodney into his office during the 2014 season. They’d known each other for a long time. McClendon was the Tigers’ bullpen coach, and Rodney established a tradition that McClendon would have to dance every time the Tigers won a game.

But fast forward five years and the context of their relationship was different. McClendon, then Rodney’s manager, wanted to learn more about him. So they sat down. He asked Rodney about his sideways hat and his bow-and-arrow routine.

What he learned was that Rodney was honoring his late father, Ulise, with the look. Ulise always wore a sideways hat while working as a fisherman. The bow and arrow was a nod to him, as well.

“I know he’d be very proud,” Rodney said, “of what I’ve been doing for 25 years.”

What McClendon came to understand about Rodney is what everyone who knows him intimately already understood. He’s funny. He’s flashy. He likes to celebrate his successes. But beneath all of that is a kind person, who is purposeful in how he deals with those around him.

“People really didn’t get (his celebrations) and didn’t understand why he was doing what he was doing, and what he’s all about,” McClendon said. “It brought tears to my eyes. That’s pretty powerful. This guy is pretty special.”

And for as special as it would be for Rodney to once again make the majors, he remains realistic about his goals.

“There’s a 99 percent chance it’s not going to be,” Rodney said. “There’s no guarantee it’s going to happen.”

He still wears his hat to the side and still does the signature celebration, even if his save chances are less frequent. The stadiums are half as large and are often half-full. The rosters aren’t populated by superstars. And there is not an international viewing audience. Rodney experienced baseball’s apex for many years. And he’s content with this completely different experience.

He’ll take whatever mound he can, as long as he can physically pick up a ball and throw it.

“When I go to the field now, with a lot of young guys, I get energized,” Rodney said. “I feel like I have gas in my tank. Right now, it’s like, ‘keep going.’

“That’s why I still play.”

[bpj]

Question is how long the velocity lasts because once the K% goes, he's nothing special, he'll start getting beat up. He's only had one season early in his career (96.0mph) where his average velocity was higher than 2023 (95.7).

I read somewhere that his worst pitch is his fastball. He has good offspeed stuff, but not a commanding fastball. When you look at the guys with staying power - the Verlnaders and Scherzers, for example - they have nasty heaters. Ergo - Snell may be far less effective in 5 years than studs like Verlander were at that age. A 9 year contract maybe way too risky (unless you offload him in 3 years like a Robbie Ray)

It looks like that may explain his step forward this season, so it appears he knows which pitches work for him now.

-His FB% fell from 55.5% to 48.6%.
-He stopped using his slider, dropping from 24.3% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023.
- He increased using his curveball from 15.1% to 19.8%
- Most notably he increased his changeup usage from 5.0% to 18.4%

I agree, I'd only give him a 4 or 5 year deal.

[Pharmabro]

Josh Hader went for about 4M less per year than I thought he would. And I wish he would have signed that deal with us. But hell, we got Anthony D., and about 12 NRI types.

[harmony]

Minnesota podcasters proposed two trades to bring Logan Gilbert to the Twin Cities:

https://twinsdaily.com/videos/minnesota ... ttle-r862/

A written response was contributed below the video.

[harmony]

FWIW on Friday the Mariner Mojo podcast compared the 2024 Steamer WAR projections position-by-position for AL West teams:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nV2ylDOgFmI

It's not discouraging. Pardon the double negative.