Jude's Plan

[Seattle or Bust]

I still think Matt Olson is the perfect fit.

He's got great left on left splits. .887/.799 career. Was better against lefties in 2024 w. an .836 OPS. Hung an .896 OPS 2nd half.

Attach a couple prospects to Haniger and offload him somewhere to create the payroll flexibility.

Do it.

Remind me why you think Olson might be gettable?

They've got the 3rd highest payroll commitment heading into 2025 at $218 million with only 3 starting pitchers signed to their rotation. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are free agents. That $218M doesn't include Ramon Laureano, Cavan Biggio, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Lee, Huascar Ynoa who are due about $17 million in arbitration.

So they gotta sign 2x starting pitchers, and they're losing depth in Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Jesse Chavez. Their payroll commitment is $238 million picking up no options of players. Their payroll is at $290 million picking up all player options and that's still without 2x starting pitchers.

Realistically they're going to not pick up some of the options and they'll non-tender some players... but you're staring at a payroll well north of $250 million after you've added some depth and completed your rotation.

They're the 12th biggest market in baseball... ahead of Seattle by just 600K people... which isn't even accurate considering Seattle's market extends into Oregon, Alaska, Idaho. Can they afford these monster payrolls and lengthy commitments to all these players?

I've read in a few places that ATL might look to shake it up in a few spaces and Olson would be a start considering he's 30... and making $22 million a year until he's 35.

[Pharmabro]

I still think Matt Olson is the perfect fit.

He's got great left on left splits. .887/.799 career. Was better against lefties in 2024 w. an .836 OPS. Hung an .896 OPS 2nd half.

Attach a couple prospects to Haniger and offload him somewhere to create the payroll flexibility.

Do it.

Remind me why you think Olson might be gettable?

They've got the 3rd highest payroll commitment heading into 2025 at $218 million with only 3 starting pitchers signed to their rotation. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are free agents. That $218M doesn't include Ramon Laureano, Cavan Biggio, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Lee, Huascar Ynoa who are due about $17 million in arbitration.

So they gotta sign 2x starting pitchers, and they're losing depth in Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Jesse Chavez. Their payroll commitment is $238 million picking up no options of players. Their payroll is at $290 million picking up all player options and that's still without 2x starting pitchers.

Realistically they're going to not pick up some of the options and they'll non-tender some players... but you're staring at a payroll well north of $250 million after you've added some depth and completed your rotation.

They're the 12th biggest market in baseball... ahead of Seattle by just 600K people... which isn't even accurate considering Seattle's market extends into Oregon, Alaska, Idaho. Can they afford these monster payrolls and lengthy commitments to all these players?

I've read in a few places that ATL might look to shake it up in a few spaces and Olson would be a start considering he's 30... and making $22 million a year until he's 35.

That is why I thought a Luis Castillo swap for Olson might be palatable to both sides. Luis's has a slightly higher AAV vs the extra year with Olson. And, Olson only had a 118 OPS+ on the year.

[GL_Storm]

I still think Matt Olson is the perfect fit.

He's got great left on left splits. .887/.799 career. Was better against lefties in 2024 w. an .836 OPS. Hung an .896 OPS 2nd half.

Attach a couple prospects to Haniger and offload him somewhere to create the payroll flexibility.

Do it.

Remind me why you think Olson might be gettable?

They've got the 3rd highest payroll commitment heading into 2025 at $218 million with only 3 starting pitchers signed to their rotation. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are free agents. That $218M doesn't include Ramon Laureano, Cavan Biggio, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Lee, Huascar Ynoa who are due about $17 million in arbitration.

So they gotta sign 2x starting pitchers, and they're losing depth in Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Jesse Chavez. Their payroll commitment is $238 million picking up no options of players. Their payroll is at $290 million picking up all player options and that's still without 2x starting pitchers.

Realistically they're going to not pick up some of the options and they'll non-tender some players... but you're staring at a payroll well north of $250 million after you've added some depth and completed your rotation.

They're the 12th biggest market in baseball... ahead of Seattle by just 600K people... which isn't even accurate considering Seattle's market extends into Oregon, Alaska, Idaho. Can they afford these monster payrolls and lengthy commitments to all these players?

I've read in a few places that ATL might look to shake it up in a few spaces and Olson would be a start considering he's 30... and making $22 million a year until he's 35.

I can buy that but I think he would cost a lot. The contract is basically team friendly and he's 30 not 35. Maybe that's the Harry Ford deal? He's from Atlanta, so it would probably be a good deal for the player at least. Harry Ford + prospect2 and prospect3 for Olson. I think they would want another top 5'ish prospect though.

Looking more broadly at Atlanta's payroll situation, they've got some bad money on the books, and so you could see where they might want to start moving some players. It might be counterintuitive, but I could see them sending Acuna somewhere while he's still young has that incredibly team-friendly contract.

[Seattle or Bust]

Remind me why you think Olson might be gettable?

They've got the 3rd highest payroll commitment heading into 2025 at $218 million with only 3 starting pitchers signed to their rotation. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are free agents. That $218M doesn't include Ramon Laureano, Cavan Biggio, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Lee, Huascar Ynoa who are due about $17 million in arbitration.

So they gotta sign 2x starting pitchers, and they're losing depth in Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Jesse Chavez. Their payroll commitment is $238 million picking up no options of players. Their payroll is at $290 million picking up all player options and that's still without 2x starting pitchers.

Realistically they're going to not pick up some of the options and they'll non-tender some players... but you're staring at a payroll well north of $250 million after you've added some depth and completed your rotation.

They're the 12th biggest market in baseball... ahead of Seattle by just 600K people... which isn't even accurate considering Seattle's market extends into Oregon, Alaska, Idaho. Can they afford these monster payrolls and lengthy commitments to all these players?

I've read in a few places that ATL might look to shake it up in a few spaces and Olson would be a start considering he's 30... and making $22 million a year until he's 35.

That is why I thought a Luis Castillo swap for Olson might be palatable to both sides. Luis's has a slightly higher AAV vs the extra year with Olson. And, Olson only had a 118 OPS+ on the year.

That might work. I'm not sure it would work for ATL even if they need starting pitching... they will want to make trades that reduce overall payroll to compensate for pay raises in some of their younger players.

I have to imagine they'd be quite interested in trading for young players with control who can step in right away.

I'd offer a package of Tyler Locklear, Emerson Hancock, and Troy Taylor for him. Gives them a starter at 1B, a cheap no. 4/5, and some reliever depth. Lots of payroll relief coupled with control of some young players.

[Seattle or Bust]

Remind me why you think Olson might be gettable?

They've got the 3rd highest payroll commitment heading into 2025 at $218 million with only 3 starting pitchers signed to their rotation. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are free agents. That $218M doesn't include Ramon Laureano, Cavan Biggio, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Lee, Huascar Ynoa who are due about $17 million in arbitration.

So they gotta sign 2x starting pitchers, and they're losing depth in Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Jesse Chavez. Their payroll commitment is $238 million picking up no options of players. Their payroll is at $290 million picking up all player options and that's still without 2x starting pitchers.

Realistically they're going to not pick up some of the options and they'll non-tender some players... but you're staring at a payroll well north of $250 million after you've added some depth and completed your rotation.

They're the 12th biggest market in baseball... ahead of Seattle by just 600K people... which isn't even accurate considering Seattle's market extends into Oregon, Alaska, Idaho. Can they afford these monster payrolls and lengthy commitments to all these players?

I've read in a few places that ATL might look to shake it up in a few spaces and Olson would be a start considering he's 30... and making $22 million a year until he's 35.

I can buy that but I think he would cost a lot. The contract is basically team friendly and he's 30 not 35. Maybe that's the Harry Ford deal? He's from Atlanta, so it would probably be a good deal for the player at least. Harry Ford + prospect2 and prospect3 for Olson. I think they would want another top 5'ish prospect though.

Looking more broadly at Atlanta's payroll situation, they've got some bad money on the books, and so you could see where they might want to start moving some players. It might be counterintuitive, but I could see them sending Acuna somewhere while he's still young has that incredibly team-friendly contract.

Following 2023 he was at $60 million. He's a year older and coming off a "down" year. My guess his MLBTV probably has him around $15-20 million. Trades don't typically love players on the wrong side of 30 with long commitments. MLBTV hates Anthony Rizzo's contract for instance. He's probably at -$17 million in value essentially saying his value is a sunk cost for his remaining 1 season in 2025.

I don't have a subscription so I can't check is value but I can do some cross referencing. At the start of 2023 when Freddie Freeman was 33, he was valued at $18.6 million heading into the second year of a 6-year $162 million deal. He had however just hung a 6.8 fWAR season.

I'll say it's similar... betting it's close.

Olson is obviously younger, but he's a less productive player than Freeman through his career.

[Donn Beach]

He may "barely swing outside of the strike zone" but sports a 27% K rate. 32% this year.

He may have good potential. But there's not a snowball's chance in hell that the M's trade Logan Gilbert for a 1B who hasn't put it together and has been injured a lot already.

This is who you just quoted:



He has a picture of Kevin Garnett in a Celtics uniform as his wallpaper on Twitter.

The hell makes him an expert or quotable lol?

He later says this: "Casas had a down year but still shouldn't be traded for less than someone like Logan Gilbert or George Kirby." Amazing how someone who aspires to be a sports writer can just drop a line like that but not quantify it... but then again, Jude is tenured at the Seattle Times.

It would take less than 30 minutes to try to research a time where a top 5 pitcher in baseball was traded for a 1B who has hung 2.7 fWAR over 222 games and spent 3/4th's of a season injured with a rib problem...

Here's a hint... SNOWBALL'S CHANCE IN HELL.

I don't know who that is or what the fuck you are talking about, want the link, how about just asking. Your gotcha moment? Sorry to disappoint you. Here is the link John Tomase NBC sports. I don't know what it would take to get Triston but he wouldn't be cheap. And when he's discussed in baseball circles his WAR isn't being brought up. But go for it if that's what you want to focus on. I might suggest putting the pipe down but that be up to you

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcspo ... 4/%3famp=1

Generally when you point to something to support a counterpoint… the person you’re quoting should have some authority. Otherwise why would you pull a quote?

A 20 year old Boston homer making zilch to produce random content for NESN is not authoritative. There’s no credibility.

Where are his sources? Did he speak to someone with the Red Sox who broke down what they expect to fetch for Casas? Did he speak to people close to the Mariners to get an idea for what Kirby and Gilbert might be valued at? Which scout told him other teams loved Casas’ metrics? Who told him that Casas is in a potential log jam and won’t be traded cheaply (those statements literally work counter to each other…)???

He doesn’t know shit if he thinks Casas can be had for Kirby or Gilbert. There’s your first clue.

Again, I haven't a clue to what you are talking about. Why are you quoting me when it doesn't relate to my post? Seriously, put the pipe down

[Seattle or Bust]

I don't know who that is or what the fuck you are talking about, want the link, how about just asking. Your gotcha moment? Sorry to disappoint you. Here is the link John Tomase NBC sports. I don't know what it would take to get Triston but he wouldn't be cheap. And when he's discussed in baseball circles his WAR isn't being brought up. But go for it if that's what you want to focus on. I might suggest putting the pipe down but that be up to you

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcspo ... 4/%3famp=1

Generally when you point to something to support a counterpoint… the person you’re quoting should have some authority. Otherwise why would you pull a quote?

A 20 year old Boston homer making zilch to produce random content for NESN is not authoritative. There’s no credibility.

Where are his sources? Did he speak to someone with the Red Sox who broke down what they expect to fetch for Casas? Did he speak to people close to the Mariners to get an idea for what Kirby and Gilbert might be valued at? Which scout told him other teams loved Casas’ metrics? Who told him that Casas is in a potential log jam and won’t be traded cheaply (those statements literally work counter to each other…)???

He doesn’t know shit if he thinks Casas can be had for Kirby or Gilbert. There’s your first clue.

Again, I haven't a clue to what you are talking about. Why are you quoting me when it doesn't relate to my post? Seriously, put the pipe down

Forget it.

Donn...

Do you think the M's would trade Logan Gilbert for Triston Casas?

I should know better than assuming you're actually following the theme of thread.

[Donn Beach]

I see what you did, the guy who picture you posted wrote an article quoting the same one i did. Again, that is the original article
https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/bos ... as/651024/

And you're complaining about me going off thread?

Do you think the M's would trade Logan Gilbert for Triston Casas?

I thought dipoto said they weren't trading any of their core pitching. But if they decided to do that for a bat then I could see it being Casas. It wouldn't be Gilbert for Casas, but who knows what the package could end up being. You aren't getting Casas for Hancock, or even a package that featured Hancock.

Here is a proposal, 1B Triston Casas, OF Miguel Bleis, INF Mikey Romero for Kirby and Moore.

I'd rather not give up Moore, he's useful. And in the role he plays now, I'm not interested in playing him full time at second base

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-r ... r-jackson3

[D-train]

Braves article includes JK

https://www.batterypower.com/2024/10/7/ ... ed-kelenic

[Seattle or Bust]

I see what you did, the guy who picture you posted wrote an article quoting the same one i did. Again, that is the original article
https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/bos ... as/651024/

And you're complaining about me going off thread?

Do you think the M's would trade Logan Gilbert for Triston Casas?

I thought dipoto said they weren't trading any of their core pitching. But if they decided to do that for a bat then I could see it being Casas. It wouldn't be Gilbert for Casas, but who knows what the package could end up being. You aren't getting Casas for Hancock, or even a package that featured Hancock.

Here is a proposal, 1B Triston Casas, OF Miguel Bleis, INF Mikey Romero for Kirby and Moore.

I'd rather not give up Moore, he's useful. And in the role he plays now, I'm not interested in playing him full time at second base

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-r ... r-jackson3

Which is exactly why I've said the Mariners and Red Sox don't match up as trade partners.

The Red Sox are not getting any of our starters because they don't have the MLB talent they're willing with or what matches what the M's need to get it done. Like... if the Marcelo Mayer was in year 2 and had just hung a .270/.350/.470 season with 25 homers and elite D... yeah. But he's not that yet.

MLBTV has your trade at about $37 million from the Red Sox. Kirby is at $79.5 million.

I'm not trading Kirby to the Red Sox for anything less than Casas, Mayer, and Luis Perales.

It's not the M's who are desperate in the trade. It's the Red Sox. Pitching is at a premium. Kirby is infinitely more valuable than Casas. 2x teams in the playoffs right now have had to run bullpen games due to injuries.