Big Maple's Meh Offseason Plan

[D-train]

You guys are prodding me into creating my own plan. lol

[Seattle or Bust]

You guys are prodding me into creating my own plan. lol

DEW IT.

$5.2 million for Olson. Man that website hates 1B's lol.

I still think it's closer to $15-$20 million for Olson... sort of like Vlad in that regard.

[Big_Maple]

You guys are prodding me into creating my own plan. lol

I started and then aborted offseason plans about 5 times over the past month. What ownership has been telling us feels like handcuffs - like all we can hope for is more of the same, stingy, dumpster diving kaka-poo that we've seen the last few years. It was uninspiring.

But then I sat around critiquing everyone else's well constructed offseason plans, and I felt more like Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Jim Jordan than an actually productive member of congress capable of original thought.

[Big_Maple]

Also, FWIW, here is iteration 9.2 of my offseason plan. It's even more incredible and outlandish, but when I put it together (3 scotches in) it somehow made sense. It's not fully gestated since it doesn't (yet) include a plan for 2B and/or 3B. Just thought I would throw it out there, just cause:

Trade: Mariners trade SP Luis Castillo and C/DH Mitch Garver to the Cardinals for C Wilson Contreras.

Rationale? The Cardinals have an interesting young catcher; Iván Herrera. He has been good for them offensively, but there have been issues with his defense. Still, he still seems to be oozing potential. The Cards have discussed trading him, moving him to another position or just being patient. Garver provides some stability and mentorship as backup to Herrera and another intriguing catching prospect, Pedro Pages waiting in the wings. So the Cards have catching options.

Contreras called out the Cards’s front office for not being serious enough in building a contending team (he and Raleigh would get along like a house on fire), and some have speculated that the front office would prefer to move him and Arenado than go big in free agency. Although Contreras has a no-trade clause, it’s possible he might be more likely to use that as leverage to move to a more competitive team rather than a desire to remain in St. Louis. Ditto for Castillo and his no-trade clause.

Meanwhile, they have a huge contract with Contreras – a three time All Star. He struggled with injuries last season but was still good for 2.9 WAR, and an impressive .263/.379/.470 slash line and a .136 OPS+. He would be an amazing duo with Raleigh (best in baseball?), and could alternate between catching and DH duties. In fact, at one point the Cards moved him to regular DH duties. He has 3 years plus another year of club option to the tune of $18MM per year. If the M’s trade Garver, they lose $12.5MM of his contract plus $1MM for a club option. The M’s also clear $24MM of Castillo’s contract for the next 4 years. The Cards have a lot of money coming off the books with Goldschmidt, Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton hitting free agency, so they could afford Castillo’s contract, especially by trading Contreras as well. They desperately need starting pitching, and Castillo provides just that. He would slot in as a TOR starter for them.

Short version: the Cards have catchers to replace Contreras, it saves them money, they get a solid TOR starter with Castillo. The M’s get a solid bat and top tier catcher/DH, they improve offensively, they get Garver’s salary off the books, and they get rid of the weak link in the starting rotation. This deal is likely an overpay for the M’s, so I am sure the Cards could throw in a prospect to even it out (I just have no idea who without a trade calculator!)

Sign: Max Fried, 6 years, $130MM
I know, I know – we could trade Castillo and stand pat with Hancock in the rotation and be fine. But I think acquisition this makes sense for lots of reasons. Hancock provides depth, I think – he’s more valuable in case of injuries or long relief. The rotation is weaker without Castillo, so they need one more arm. Fried is likely the 3rd best lefty available this season – other teams are going to overpay for Snell and Burnes, and I think 6 years and $130MM would do it. Fried is an innings-eater, he’s less of a strikeout guy and more of a groundball guy which bodes well at T-Mobile. Since 2021, he boasts a 2.81 ERA, and even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s still got stuff and he’s going to get a 6 year contract from someone. Why not us? And, he's a lefty in an otherwise all righty rotation. Fried, Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Miller, Hancock = best rotation in baseball.

[Donn Beach]

We've got a catcher

[Seattle or Bust]

We've got a catcher

He's suggesting that he mostly DH's.

I'm not a fan of signing a catcher to DH making what he's making. He's a solid hitter... but not a $18 million a year hitter.

[Donn Beach]

Okay, share time with Cal at catcher. Think it make more a fourth outfielder, could rotate players through dh, Rooker could fill that kind of role

[Pharmabro]

So the cost obsessed Marlins are going to give up cost controlled Burger and spend $15M on Dollard who is probably still injured and at best a 5 starter, Rojas who sucks ass, Haniger who is cooked and Locklear who flopped in MLB and was meh in AAA?

Capture.PNG

Yeah. Well. Worth a shot.

I don't have access to MLBTR anymore. No idea of values. *shrugs*

You can still use it just scroll down and put in the players name or team name and you can look at trades other people have done and you can get the trade calc that way/

[Pharmabro]

I really have no clue what the M's will do this offseason. Go big? Go home? So just for shits and giggles, I put together my plan which blends a little realism with a little optimism. It's not sexy, but it looks good after 4 or 5 beers. So here it is, y'all:

Assumptions and Conditions:

• Ownership would prefer to get players through trade. That said, I think they have cut costs so much, and they realize they are 2 or 3 impact bats away from contention that this might be the season they go after someone in free agency (sadly, not Soto – too expensive).

• None of Gilbert, Woo, Miller, Kirby, or Castillo will be traded. Our pitching staff has the lowest ERA and highest strikeouts in the majors, and Dipoto has said outright none of these guys are on the table for trade talks.

• Our outfield is set with JRod, Arozarena and Robles with Haniger as the odd man out. He is either traded or winds up getting part time service to give other guys the day off.

• I assume JP will not be traded, nor will he be moved to 2B. He’s there till his contract runs out and some of our SS prospects start knocking on the door.

• I’m guessing Polanco will not be returning. There aren’t cost effective free agents out there which leaves trade, or in-house options. My plan has DMo getting a chance at the keystone – he’s already on our roster, and he’s better than Urias or Rivas. Maybe some every day reps at 2B will lead to more consistency at the plate.

• Urias, Rojas and Rivas are good utility guys, but nothing spectacular. We could part with any or all of them if we can upgrade.

• Biggest needs right now: 2B and 3B and DH.

• Garver is Garver. Maybe his bat will wake up next season. But at best, he's a serviceable backup catcher.

Trade: Marlins trade Jake Burger (3B), the Mariners trade Josh Rojas (INF/OF), Tyler Locklear (1B, Prospect), Taylor Dollard (RHP, Prospect) and Mitch Haniger (RF).

Rationale: the Marlins have a great, talented, young rotation, but it was plagued by injuries in 2024. That said, I think it is pretty much set in 2025, and because they don’t need starting pitchers, we could engineer a trade without parting with one of our starters. The Marlins are saying Burger could be an anchor at 3B, but the Marlins also have a hot prospect in Connor Norby who could be another long term answer at 3B. Rojas provides a ton of flexibility in both the infield and outfield, while Locklear is a nearly-MLB-ready 1B. Dollard was a rising prospect until he had labrum surgery in 2023 that impacted his 2024 season as well. He looks to be an Emerson Hancock kind of guy with excellent control. Haniger is a salary dump – while 4 guys for 1 may seem like an overpay, Dollard is a risk because he is coming back from surgery, and Haniger is a veteran, toss-in guy. We save money by trading him, and we get rid of a 4th outfielder.

In return, we get Burger who was one of the best power hitters in the second half of 2024. He has tons of team control (4 years of arbitration), and he is emerging as a legitimate power hitter at the hot corner. For the season, he slashed .250/.301/.460 with an OPS+ of 103. He had 29 homers, including a 11 in a 22 game stretch after the All-Star break. He’d be a stud at 3B. The M’s need a long term answer to 3B, and while there is some risk in Burger who struggled the first half of 2024, there is a lot of potential upside in one of the best promising power hitters (a 30+ home run guy). Plus, it's just fun to say "Burger".


Sign: Anthony Santander, 5 years, $110MM
OK. We need an impact bat. We are not going to get a difference-maker through trades given that we have junk position players and none of our starters are trade bait. It will take prospects, and I already gave up a couple of them to land Burger. What we need is a legitimate hitter to bat 4 or 5, and I think we need to ante up, and we need to offer a long term deal to secure a decent hitter. We need a Nelson Cruz.

Santander checks all the boxes. He’s only 29, so a long term deal doesn’t sting as much. He’s a switch-hitting, beast with the bat (.235/.308/.505 and a 134 OPS+). He had 44 homers last season, and he’s expected to hit around 40 every year, even in a pitcher’s park like T-Mobile. He plays right field, and with Haniger gone, he can play a backup role at RF while being primarily a DH. So yeah, he’s basically a younger version of Nellie, and he and Burger combined will significantly boost our offensive output.

Santander is the best hitter available in free agency not named Soto. He will be sought after, so we will have to splurge. Most pundits are predicting 5 years and $80-100MM. We might have to call and raise to $110MM, but I think it would be money well spent.


Sign: Aroldis Chapman, 1 year, $10MM
We have an amazing bullpen, especially with the return of Brash. But I think signing Chapman to a 1 year deal makes sense – Chapman is a bone fide, late inning reliever/closer. He still brings the heat (his fastball is consistently over 100 mph). Last year he had 14 saves, 98 strikeouts in 61.2 innings of work. He gives us a left handed power reliever. Plus, we offloaded Haniger to the Marlins, and this saved us $17.5MM next year which more than pays for a year of flame-throwing Chapman.


My plan offers a little realism (I think Burger is getable, and dumping Haniger’s salary frees up a little more money for dabbling in free agency) and a little wishful thinking (Santander would be an amazing addition, and while he is totally getable and even affordable, this move doesn’t jibe with approach the M’s have taken in the offseason the last few years). But I think this is the year the M’s take a risk. Maybe not a Soto, or Bregman, or Burnes, or Snell risk, but an actual attempt to hire the services of a legitimate middle-of-the-order power hitter. If we did these 3 simple moves, we would have one of the best rotations in baseball, one of the best outfields in baseball, and serious offensive upgrades at 3B and DH and the bullpen. We’d have to settle for Moore at 2B – anything else would be too expensive or bottom of the dumpster. Raley stays at 1B for this year.

Roster:
1. Victor Robles LF: .307/.381/.433/.814
2. Julio Rodriguez CF: .273/.325/.409/.734
3. Luke Raley 1B/OF: .243/.320/.463/.783
4. Randy Arozarena RF: .219/.332/.388/.720
5. Anthony Santander DH/RF: .235/.308/.505/.814
6. Cal Raleigh C: .214/.323/.422/.745
7. Jake Burger 3B: .250/.301/.460/.760
8. Dylan Moore 2B: .201/.320/.367/.687
9. JP Crawford SS: .202/.338/.368/.707

Bench: Leo Rivas Util, Luis Urias Util, Mitch Garver, C

1. Logan Gilbert
2. George Kirby
3. Luis Castillo
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo

CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, Aroldis Chapman
ML: JT Chargois, Austin Voth, Gabe Spier
LL: Emerson Hancock, Trent Thornton

You had 2 of my moves Chapman, Burger:
DT is right to get rid of Hanniger you'd have to pack up another Cole Young and a couple of million or more prospects.

I like Dilly as the 1st guy off the bench. Not as a starter. SO I would add in going after Lowe, or maybe Nico Hoerner, or Brandon Donavan, etc. But nice plan.

[Sports Hernia]

I really have no clue what the M's will do this offseason. Go big? Go home? So just for shits and giggles, I put together my plan which blends a little realism with a little optimism. It's not sexy, but it looks good after 4 or 5 beers. So here it is, y'all:

Assumptions and Conditions:

• Ownership would prefer to get players through trade. That said, I think they have cut costs so much, and they realize they are 2 or 3 impact bats away from contention that this might be the season they go after someone in free agency (sadly, not Soto – too expensive).

• None of Gilbert, Woo, Miller, Kirby, or Castillo will be traded. Our pitching staff has the lowest ERA and highest strikeouts in the majors, and Dipoto has said outright none of these guys are on the table for trade talks.

• Our outfield is set with JRod, Arozarena and Robles with Haniger as the odd man out. He is either traded or winds up getting part time service to give other guys the day off.

• I assume JP will not be traded, nor will he be moved to 2B. He’s there till his contract runs out and some of our SS prospects start knocking on the door.

• I’m guessing Polanco will not be returning. There aren’t cost effective free agents out there which leaves trade, or in-house options. My plan has DMo getting a chance at the keystone – he’s already on our roster, and he’s better than Urias or Rivas. Maybe some every day reps at 2B will lead to more consistency at the plate.

• Urias, Rojas and Rivas are good utility guys, but nothing spectacular. We could part with any or all of them if we can upgrade.

• Biggest needs right now: 2B and 3B and DH.

• Garver is Garver. Maybe his bat will wake up next season. But at best, he's a serviceable backup catcher.

Trade: Marlins trade Jake Burger (3B), the Mariners trade Josh Rojas (INF/OF), Tyler Locklear (1B, Prospect), Taylor Dollard (RHP, Prospect) and Mitch Haniger (RF).

Rationale: the Marlins have a great, talented, young rotation, but it was plagued by injuries in 2024. That said, I think it is pretty much set in 2025, and because they don’t need starting pitchers, we could engineer a trade without parting with one of our starters. The Marlins are saying Burger could be an anchor at 3B, but the Marlins also have a hot prospect in Connor Norby who could be another long term answer at 3B. Rojas provides a ton of flexibility in both the infield and outfield, while Locklear is a nearly-MLB-ready 1B. Dollard was a rising prospect until he had labrum surgery in 2023 that impacted his 2024 season as well. He looks to be an Emerson Hancock kind of guy with excellent control. Haniger is a salary dump – while 4 guys for 1 may seem like an overpay, Dollard is a risk because he is coming back from surgery, and Haniger is a veteran, toss-in guy. We save money by trading him, and we get rid of a 4th outfielder.

In return, we get Burger who was one of the best power hitters in the second half of 2024. He has tons of team control (4 years of arbitration), and he is emerging as a legitimate power hitter at the hot corner. For the season, he slashed .250/.301/.460 with an OPS+ of 103. He had 29 homers, including a 11 in a 22 game stretch after the All-Star break. He’d be a stud at 3B. The M’s need a long term answer to 3B, and while there is some risk in Burger who struggled the first half of 2024, there is a lot of potential upside in one of the best promising power hitters (a 30+ home run guy). Plus, it's just fun to say "Burger".


Sign: Anthony Santander, 5 years, $110MM
OK. We need an impact bat. We are not going to get a difference-maker through trades given that we have junk position players and none of our starters are trade bait. It will take prospects, and I already gave up a couple of them to land Burger. What we need is a legitimate hitter to bat 4 or 5, and I think we need to ante up, and we need to offer a long term deal to secure a decent hitter. We need a Nelson Cruz.

Santander checks all the boxes. He’s only 29, so a long term deal doesn’t sting as much. He’s a switch-hitting, beast with the bat (.235/.308/.505 and a 134 OPS+). He had 44 homers last season, and he’s expected to hit around 40 every year, even in a pitcher’s park like T-Mobile. He plays right field, and with Haniger gone, he can play a backup role at RF while being primarily a DH. So yeah, he’s basically a younger version of Nellie, and he and Burger combined will significantly boost our offensive output.

Santander is the best hitter available in free agency not named Soto. He will be sought after, so we will have to splurge. Most pundits are predicting 5 years and $80-100MM. We might have to call and raise to $110MM, but I think it would be money well spent.


Sign: Aroldis Chapman, 1 year, $10MM
We have an amazing bullpen, especially with the return of Brash. But I think signing Chapman to a 1 year deal makes sense – Chapman is a bone fide, late inning reliever/closer. He still brings the heat (his fastball is consistently over 100 mph). Last year he had 14 saves, 98 strikeouts in 61.2 innings of work. He gives us a left handed power reliever. Plus, we offloaded Haniger to the Marlins, and this saved us $17.5MM next year which more than pays for a year of flame-throwing Chapman.


My plan offers a little realism (I think Burger is getable, and dumping Haniger’s salary frees up a little more money for dabbling in free agency) and a little wishful thinking (Santander would be an amazing addition, and while he is totally getable and even affordable, this move doesn’t jibe with approach the M’s have taken in the offseason the last few years). But I think this is the year the M’s take a risk. Maybe not a Soto, or Bregman, or Burnes, or Snell risk, but an actual attempt to hire the services of a legitimate middle-of-the-order power hitter. If we did these 3 simple moves, we would have one of the best rotations in baseball, one of the best outfields in baseball, and serious offensive upgrades at 3B and DH and the bullpen. We’d have to settle for Moore at 2B – anything else would be too expensive or bottom of the dumpster. Raley stays at 1B for this year.

Roster:
1. Victor Robles LF: .307/.381/.433/.814
2. Julio Rodriguez CF: .273/.325/.409/.734
3. Luke Raley 1B/OF: .243/.320/.463/.783
4. Randy Arozarena RF: .219/.332/.388/.720
5. Anthony Santander DH/RF: .235/.308/.505/.814
6. Cal Raleigh C: .214/.323/.422/.745
7. Jake Burger 3B: .250/.301/.460/.760
8. Dylan Moore 2B: .201/.320/.367/.687
9. JP Crawford SS: .202/.338/.368/.707

Bench: Leo Rivas Util, Luis Urias Util, Mitch Garver, C

1. Logan Gilbert
2. George Kirby
3. Luis Castillo
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo

CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, Aroldis Chapman
ML: JT Chargois, Austin Voth, Gabe Spier
LL: Emerson Hancock, Trent Thornton

Replace Moore with Bliss.

Plus the ownership has pretty much said they are sitting on their wallets when it comes to spending on FA talent, so Santander is likely not happening.