Likely outcome for the rest of the offseason

[Double Mocha Man]

The M's have an outstanding nucleus that needs to continue to develop into the Hall of Fame talents that they can be. That includes Rodriguez, Raleigh, Kirby, Gilbert and Castillo.

I don't think I'd include Castillo in the "developing" group. What you see is what you get, pretty much. Though otherwise I mostly agree with you. Although sometimes when we're close to the names in an organization we tend to see their potential rather than their liabilities. While that group looks very good I don't think we can get in or go far in the playoffs this season with them. We need a strong addition or two, now. Playing the waiting game only loses us some of our great pitching staff.

[bpj]

IDk, tickets and merch are just as affordable at the Safe as they are around the sport. Think baseball is costly, try getting into a Kraken game.

I'd love to go to a Kraken game. I grew up in Canada and was a hockey fan forever. I moved to Seattle which, at the time, had no hockey team. Then I moved away and they got one.

So I guess I am stuck weeping over the heartbreaking Mariners. Just call me Marquis de Sade.

Exactly. They didn't sign Castillo hoping that in 2025-2027 he'd be our ace and carry us in the playoffs.

We needed him the last two years for that.

At this point they should have added a serious 1B and DH to the offense from the top of the market, at minimum, if they were serious about winning.

[Big_Maple]

IDk, tickets and merch are just as affordable at the Safe as they are around the sport. Think baseball is costly, try getting into a Kraken game.

I'd love to go to a Kraken game. I grew up in Canada and was a hockey fan forever. I moved to Seattle which, at the time, had no hockey team. Then I moved away and they got one.

So I guess I am stuck weeping over the heartbreaking Mariners. Just call me Marquis de Sade.

Exactly. They didn't sign Castillo hoping that in 2025-2027 he'd be our ace and carry us in the playoffs.

We needed him the last two years for that.

At this point they should have added a serious 1B and DH to the offense from the top of the market, at minimum, if they were serious about winning.

Totally agree. Castillo is declining and has more value as trade bait to net us a position player now than he does at the top of the rotation.

And go after one huge, impact bat in free agency. Show the team and the fans you’re serious. Get a Bregman. They would earn back some trust from the fans and they would still be a hugely profitable team. I don’t buy the “we’re too broke-assed to sign big name players”.

Instead our big off season plan was to wait till the last minute and then be surprised that all we picked up was 37 year old whose best days are in the rear view mirror, and some utility guy you’d have to Google just to find out that he’s a real player.

[Vogelbomb]

The M's have an outstanding nucleus that needs to continue to develop into the Hall of Fame talents that they can be. That includes Rodriguez, Raleigh, Kirby, Gilbert and Castillo.

I don't think I'd include Castillo in the "developing" group. What you see is what you get, pretty much. Though otherwise I mostly agree with you. Although sometimes when we're close to the names in an organization we tend to see their potential rather than their liabilities. While that group looks very good I don't think we can get in or go far in the playoffs this season with them. We need a strong addition or two, now. Playing the waiting game only loses us some of our great pitching staff.

Sure, Castillo likely is who he is, but I was trying to say that he needs to keep getting better. Hopefully, for instance, he can cut the homer rate a tad and hit 200 innings, drop his FIP.

Now, to the sentence fragment I highlighted... you don't think this team is one of the 6 best in the AL? You don't think -- amidst a rather weak, gettable AL West -- this squad is capable of winning the division?

Well, that's your opinion. I think this squad that exists on paper right now, is the favorite in the AL West. That pitching staff is only getting better. If it can just improve in the bullpen, ie cut the blown saves from last season by 20 percent, if it can manage late-game scenarios better, ie get runs across in bases-loaded, no out situations, 2-on, no-out situations, and see players like JP, Arozarena, Julio and Garver all raise their performances while the rest turn in equal to performances within a reasonable standard deviation (say, +- 10 percent), it should win 95+ games.

I really think we've only scratched the surface with this rotation. I think Wilson will push them even deeper at times. I think Miller and Woo are nowhere near how good they'll be and Kirby and Gilbert are such strong competitors that I have confidence they will be a degree better.

This team won 85 last yr and there were a good 10-12 games it blew in the final 3 innings due to poor managing and poor pen performance, lack of clutch hitting.

[Vogelbomb]

"Show you're serious about winning"

Wouldn't you say, at the end of the day, winning games is more important than this "show" put on in the offseason? So who's to say that a solid player like Solano won't move the needle?
No one knows. Yes, Solano could struggle in Safeco like so many before him. But he could also hit .280 again. Handing 1b to Luke Raley could lead to more production from him given his relative youth at the ML level. And there's so many others we can point to on down the line from Arozarena to Garver.

At the end of the day it's about the performance this collective delivers over 162 games in 2025. Adding any fucking name in the offseason is just a name. What they do is what counts. Winning games is what counts. And none of us know how that's going to unfold because none of us can time travel. At least I don't think.

Any player on the Ms who is nearing the end of their contract with the team will ultimately stick with the club (if the club offers an extension to that player) because they like where the team is headed. If they don't like the future, they'll likely walk. So win, that's what matters. Signing some big name FA, that gets fans excited, that'll sell some tickets, but if you don't win, fans and pundits will just be asking for another big move and another big move.

Just win. Be the best team in the league. Play better fucking baseball than everyone else. And the culture will be great, baseball in Seattle will be seen as amazing again, and extensions will rain from the skies.

[ddraig]

I mostly agree with you. I doubt many of the kids on the team today will stay with the club. Management has shown no reason to remain. The best rotation in the business and they show no need to improve the offense. The kid pitchers are playing for their own stats knowing at best they will have a .500 record at the end of the year. Why stay? You think Cal is going to stick around when his contract is up? Fat chance. JP and Julio will likely stick around, but that's gonna be about it!

[Double Mocha Man]

The M's have an outstanding nucleus that needs to continue to develop into the Hall of Fame talents that they can be. That includes Rodriguez, Raleigh, Kirby, Gilbert and Castillo.

I don't think I'd include Castillo in the "developing" group. What you see is what you get, pretty much. Though otherwise I mostly agree with you. Although sometimes when we're close to the names in an organization we tend to see their potential rather than their liabilities. While that group looks very good I don't think we can get in or go far in the playoffs this season with them. We need a strong addition or two, now. Playing the waiting game only loses us some of our great pitching staff.

Sure, Castillo likely is who he is, but I was trying to say that he needs to keep getting better. Hopefully, for instance, he can cut the homer rate a tad and hit 200 innings, drop his FIP.

Now, to the sentence fragment I highlighted... you don't think this team is one of the 6 best in the AL? You don't think -- amidst a rather weak, gettable AL West -- this squad is capable of winning the division?

Well, that's your opinion. I think this squad that exists on paper right now, is the favorite in the AL West. That pitching staff is only getting better. If it can just improve in the bullpen, ie cut the blown saves from last season by 20 percent, if it can manage late-game scenarios better, ie get runs across in bases-loaded, no out situations, 2-on, no-out situations, and see players like JP, Arozarena, Julio and Garver all raise their performances while the rest turn in equal to performances within a reasonable standard deviation (say, +- 10 percent), it should win 95+ games.

I really think we've only scratched the surface with this rotation. I think Wilson will push them even deeper at times. I think Miller and Woo are nowhere near how good they'll be and Kirby and Gilbert are such strong competitors that I have confidence they will be a degree better.

This team won 85 last yr and there were a good 10-12 games it blew in the final 3 innings due to poor managing and poor pen performance, lack of clutch hitting.

Vogelbomb, I really like your outlook. I would love to see 95 victories. And yes, that was my opinion. Not that there is anything wrong with it, as Seinfeld would say, but you have essentially everyone improving. That is typically not real life in the world of sports. Without our having a clue there will be players that exhibit regression. Who would have imagined Julio's regression last season?

[Vogelbomb]

DMM, you're right, I stand optimistic over here on my side of the wall. Like you say, who had that season from Julio pegged? And frankly, if he's 10 percent better last year, the M's win 2 more games and they find their way into the postseason.

I think that's the point. This isn't a bad roster at all. They need their core players to perform up to their respective talent levels. Will everyone reach their max? Certainly not. But I think a few more players who regressed considerably last year from Garver to J-Rod to JP to Arozarena, I think out of that group, can you get 25-80 percent progression back to the mean? Julio hits that 80 percent bump and maybe Garver and JP just slide in at a 25 percent bump? Arozarena somewhere in the middle?

if that can happen while Robles and Raley continue to do their thing, we see Bliss and Young have a solid rookie campaign when they get their shots, and Cal just continues to get better, this team can be really sneaky good.

Yes, I'm an optimist. I love my M's and I'll always support them even when there doesn't seem to be a good reason to. I see a return to the playoffs this season and an offseason that brings us at least one extension between the Cal, Logan, Furious George triumvirate.

[GL_Storm]

I mostly agree with you. I doubt many of the kids on the team today will stay with the club. Management has shown no reason to remain. The best rotation in the business and they show no need to improve the offense. The kid pitchers are playing for their own stats knowing at best they will have a .500 record at the end of the year. Why stay? You think Cal is going to stick around when his contract is up? Fat chance. JP and Julio will likely stick around, but that's gonna be about it!

I disagree with the statement that the front office hasn't recognized the need to improve the offense. They've signed or traded for a number of players to improve the roster, including the offense. The problem is that most of the acquired players don't work out very well.

[DavidGee24]

I mostly agree with you. I doubt many of the kids on the team today will stay with the club. Management has shown no reason to remain. The best rotation in the business and they show no need to improve the offense. The kid pitchers are playing for their own stats knowing at best they will have a .500 record at the end of the year. Why stay? You think Cal is going to stick around when his contract is up? Fat chance. JP and Julio will likely stick around, but that's gonna be about it!

I disagree with the statement that the front office hasn't recognized the need to improve the offense. They've signed or traded for a number of players to improve the roster, including the offense. The problem is that most of the acquired players don't work out very well.

The ones they've signed to play second base (Frazier, Wong and Polanco) have been surprising failures, especially Frazier who was coming off his best season. Winker was also a surprising failure so there's definitely been some bad luck involved. However, others were terrible in concept and performed as badly as one could expect. Haniger, LaStella, Pollock, Urias, Zavala and especially Garver who had been 0-32 lifetime at T-Mobile.