Likely outcome for the rest of the offseason

[GL_Storm]

Some of this was bad luck but teams also create their own luck through their choices. The bigger picture here is this approach of trying to adjust the roster reactively year to year with players on short-term deals, the idea being that by avoiding longer-term commitments you maintain your payroll flexibility. There's a certain amount of logic to that approach but it has not worked at all. While the team has had consistent winning seasons the last few years, that's largely been in spite of the players brought in.

The part that has worked better is what you might think of as the longer-term parts of the strategy, using the draft and international signings to acquire and develop franchise-level players: Julio, Cal, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, Woo, and Brash. Also Munoz, that they got in a trade, as well as the consistent ability to turn enough fringy relievers into the best versions of themselves to make the bullpen consistently productive.

Given their track record, my view is that this front office needs to get away from the approach of trying to reactively fill the gaps in the roster each year. They've shown clearly that they aren't good at it, so maybe just don't do it, or at least do less of it. And since they aren't likely to start overpaying for the Marcus Semien's of the world, I think that means more of a focus on developing from within.

But we'll see what they do.

Dtrain brought this up and I questioned it then. I don't believe the mariners are trying to have a bunch of short term contracts just for the sake of payroll flexibility, I don't see where there is an argument for it's value. I think there's an argument for utilizing pre FA contracts. And I think they are genuinely interested in extending players but that's easier said than done and has plenty of risk.

Utilizing the young players cheap years is great business.

The problem for the Mariners, is if they're not going to sign free agents, they're at a competitive disadvantage. One less tool available.

If they're going to ignore the free agents (or be ignored), then they need to make up for that by trading off the guys who refuse to sign extensions when they have 1-2 years of control remaining.

They can't keep letting guys like Haniger walk without getting a return.

Especially if they're also going to go out and spend prospect capital for short term guys like Teoscar, and then refuse to offer them QO's to get talent back in the system.

They keep sending talent away, but not bringing enough into the system, relative to other teams, imo.

This is exactly right. I don't think the Mariners front office thinks that way though.

[bpj]

Dtrain brought this up and I questioned it then. I don't believe the mariners are trying to have a bunch of short term contracts just for the sake of payroll flexibility, I don't see where there is an argument for it's value. I think there's an argument for utilizing pre FA contracts. And I think they are genuinely interested in extending players but that's easier said than done and has plenty of risk.

Utilizing the young players cheap years is great business.

The problem for the Mariners, is if they're not going to sign free agents, they're at a competitive disadvantage. One less tool available.

If they're going to ignore the free agents (or be ignored), then they need to make up for that by trading off the guys who refuse to sign extensions when they have 1-2 years of control remaining.

They can't keep letting guys like Haniger walk without getting a return.

Especially if they're also going to go out and spend prospect capital for short term guys like Teoscar, and then refuse to offer them QO's to get talent back in the system.

They keep sending talent away, but not bringing enough into the system, relative to other teams, imo.

This is exactly right. I don't think the Mariners front office thinks that way though.

I agree, for some reason they don't.

Shouldn't be surprised I guess, they're also the guys who called it good enough this offseason after going 38-38 to finish the season after the trade deadline.

[Double Mocha Man]

Zips is pretty optimistic about Robles and the mariners in general. Seemed to me it wasn't much impressed with them in the past

Which speaks to the fairly unpredictable nature of the game. Guys get good. Guys get bad. As fallible human beings we tend to want to ascribe to someone the talents and averages they already have, and expect them to continue. Robles is a good example... and we got him for almost nothing. Now, about that stock market...

[GL_Storm]

Zips is pretty optimistic about Robles and the mariners in general. Seemed to me it wasn't much impressed with them in the past

Which speaks to the fairly unpredictable nature of the game. Guys get good. Guys get bad. As fallible human beings we tend to want to ascribe to someone the talents and averages they already have, and expect them to continue. Robles is a good example... and we got him for almost nothing. Now, about that stock market...

This is another reason why I'm pretty okay with them not doing much this offseason.

[DavidGee24]

Zips is pretty optimistic about Robles and the mariners in general. Seemed to me it wasn't much impressed with them in the past

Which speaks to the fairly unpredictable nature of the game. Guys get good. Guys get bad. As fallible human beings we tend to want to ascribe to someone the talents and averages they already have, and expect them to continue. Robles is a good example... and we got him for almost nothing. Now, about that stock market...

Which is a good reason in and of itself to add hitting, we can't just automatically pencil in a 3.50 ERA from our starting rotation just because they did it last year. Someone might make the leap to Cy Young contender, or someone may just fall apart. Robbie Ray, anyone?