Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

Vogelbomb
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Re: Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

Post by Vogelbomb » Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:32 am

If you took time to look at where Adames is (close to 190-200 ft up the line from home) and where Cal is before the ball has even reached Adames, you'd know that he does have a very good chance to score. These are exact situations where runners get the wave home ie when they reach third base and the ball hasn't reached the cut.

Either you have a very poor opinion of Cal's speed, an over-exaggerated sense of Adames' arm (it's not De La Cruz) or you're just plain ignorant

Vogelbomb
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Re: Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

Post by Vogelbomb » Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:35 am

As for the simple ask of getting another hit in that situation. Yeah, I mean obviously I just like you want a better batting avg from this team w/ RISP.

But even if it's .300, that's a 30 percent chance to score that run. Add in another, what, maybe 1/20 chance the pitcher uncorks a wild pitch there? OK so you're looking at a 35 percent chance.
Meanwhile, I think Cal has a 70 percent chance there. If not higher. IF you look closely he's already past 3b, stopped and standing on the bag before the ball is even in Adames' glove. He's come to a full stop and Adames doesn't have the ball!!!

Take the 70 percent over the 35 all day long. Bird in the hand!!!

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

Post by Seattle or Bust » Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:41 am

Vogelbomb wrote:
Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:35 am
As for the simple ask of getting another hit in that situation. Yeah, I mean obviously I just like you want a better batting avg from this team w/ RISP.

But even if it's .300, that's a 30 percent chance to score that run. Add in another, what, maybe 1/20 chance the pitcher uncorks a wild pitch there? OK so you're looking at a 35 percent chance.
Meanwhile, I think Cal has a 70 percent chance there. If not higher. IF you look closely he's already past 3b, stopped and standing on the bag before the ball is even in Adames' glove. He's come to a full stop and Adames doesn't have the ball!!!

Take the 70 percent over the 35 all day long. Bird in the hand!!!
You math equation was already flawed cause you're pulling 70% out of your butt. It's 10% at best and that's the slim odds that the guy throws the ball so far up the line than he scores via luck.

As for hitting .300 w. RISP. The M's more or less have the same amount of AB's as the Giants w. RISP. The Giants have scored 39 runs while hitting .300. The Mariners have scored 16. That's 23 extra runs. That would also give them 55 total runs scored instead of 32 which would place them 7th in baseball.

They would likely be no worse than 7-3.

I'd rather my team hit the fkn baseball than wonder if we can win games by sending a sloth of a catcher for plays at the plate.

Captain 97
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Re: Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

Post by Captain 97 » Tue Apr 08, 2025 2:57 am

He would have been out by 20 feet.

Vogelbomb
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Re: Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

Post by Vogelbomb » Tue Apr 08, 2025 4:28 am

How far was Adames out from the plate? What do you think SoB? 180 ft? 190 ft? What's the shortest amount of time that any infielder making that cut throw can pop the ball (catch and release) and get it to home at that distance? Huh? What do you think? Even if you have De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz, Seager name your hardest throwing SS.... 2.5 sec, 2.8? And then it has to be on line and the catcher has to get a tag down. that takes time too.

Like you guys aren't even thinking about the time aspect. Catch and release takes time especially when you need to throw it 180+ ft on a line. You have to really load up your arm when you've got no momentum going that way.

Use your brains

Vogelbomb
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Re: Decision to hold Raleigh on Arozarena's double (w/ image)

Post by Vogelbomb » Tue Apr 08, 2025 4:28 am

Captain 97 wrote:
Tue Apr 08, 2025 2:57 am
He would have been out by 20 feet.
lol, no way

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