Julio's home OPS this season is .582

Michael K.
Posts: 13044
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 5:27 am

Re: Julio's home OPS this season is .582

Post by Michael K. » Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:23 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:04 pm
Michael K. wrote:
Tue Aug 12, 2025 12:18 pm
His contract isn’t an issue, if he hits. But he’s outside the top fucking 80 in OPS!

Cracks me up that you have a fan base that pretends the organization can’t be criticized, and that organization has made one playoff appearance in two and a half decades!
He has a 4.9 bWAR which 9th among MLB position players.
His fWAR is 3.7 which is 21st.
He is 10th in Runs
He is 12th in SB
He is 20th in HR
He is 21st in Defensive Runs Saved
He is 35th in RBI
He is the 37th highest paid position player. I don't see a problem with his contract.
His hot streak has certainly helped, but this is what I posted in June.
Michael K. wrote:
Wed Jun 18, 2025 5:17 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Wed Jun 18, 2025 4:27 pm
Julio even with his typical slow start is on pace for around 6 fWAR, that would make his salary a bargain
Interesting.
Based on the information available, Julio Rodriguez's total salary for 2025 is $20,185,714. This figure includes his base salary plus a prorated signing bonus.
While an exact league-wide ranking can fluctuate slightly depending on the specific list and data source used, a common ranking puts him among the top 65 players overall in MLB. Filtering for just position players and considering his salary, Julio Rodriguez's 2025 salary would place him around 37th among MLB position players for the 2025 season, based on available data. He ranks just behind players like Salvador Perez ($20.5 million) and just ahead of José Ramírez ($20.14 million).
37th among position players. Yet -

79th in BA at .258
61st in HRs with 10
97th in OBP at .321
99th in SLG at .412
105th in OPS at .783 JP Crawford is 38th

Yep, fucking bargain. You are telling me he saves so many runs in CF that he is a top 15 player in the league? Because I don't see fucking bargain from a guy that is paid like the 37th best player in the game but puts up those numbers! Bargain my fucking ass. He's stealing fucking money.
Obviously it was my post that lit the fire to turn him into Julio. But how many years can we survive with him 97th, 99th and 105th in OBP, SLG and OPS in mid June?

I guess we just expect Cal to be Johnny Bench for ever? Hell, I hate even talking salary, because there is no salary cap so I don't give a shit what they spend. But this conversation back in June started because Donn said he was a bargain at his salary. I call bullshit, and another reason I think WAR is horseshit. He needs to hit, not just play CF. He is hitting now, great. I'm thrilled, but I'm tired of the excuses of how he is a slow starter. That's a fucking cop out.

Captain 97
Posts: 3328
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 9:23 pm

Re: Julio's home OPS this season is .582

Post by Captain 97 » Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:29 pm

No one likes streakiness but if the numbers are there at the end of the year you got the value and it doesn't really matter what months they came in. M's are 33-19 since June 11th. That doesn't happen without Julio.

DanielVogelbach
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:43 pm

Re: Julio's home OPS this season is .582

Post by DanielVogelbach » Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:35 pm

Long term contracts are generally high value in the beginning and low value in the end. But, you have to look at that as the price of getting the deal done. It's really just one price and everyone knows the player is gonna decline as they age.

Julio's contract is kind of weird. He signed his contract as a rookie while still under club control for 5 years, so his initial 7 year deal was only to avoid arbitration and extend 2 years into his free agency. But, after 2028 the team can exercise club options for 8 or 10 more years making Julio basically a Mariner for life. If they don't exercise, then Julio has a player option for 5 years for $90 mil up to $125 with incentives or he can hit the FA market at age 29.

DanielVogelbach
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:43 pm

Re: Julio's home OPS this season is .582

Post by DanielVogelbach » Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:38 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:29 pm
No one likes streakiness but if the numbers are there at the end of the year you got the value and it doesn't really matter what months they came in. M's are 33-19 since June 11th. That doesn't happen without Julio.
Plus his defense makes them tougher to beat at home with the big outfield.

Julio had 3 doubles and a triple versus Houston in the 2022 post season. (.896 OPS for the series) He's a prime-timer. So is Castillo. So is Polanco. So is Geno. So is Josh.

Michael K.
Posts: 13044
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 5:27 am

Re: Julio's home OPS this season is .582

Post by Michael K. » Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:47 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Tue Aug 12, 2025 5:29 pm
No one likes streakiness but if the numbers are there at the end of the year you got the value and it doesn't really matter what months they came in. M's are 33-19 since June 11th. That doesn't happen without Julio.
No, it certainly doesn't. But you don't think we win a few more games before if he isn't outside the top 95 in OBP, SLG and OPS in mid June? It does matter what months they come in, because losses in March, April and May count the same as losses in August and September. If they miss a first round bye by one game, those losses are huge. If they miss out on the division by one game? Those losses are huge. If they miss the playoffs by one game? Those losses are....wait for it.....HUGE.

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