Jude weighs in

[Michael K.]

Not a terrible article. A lot of it has been discussed in here.

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Five offseason moves that could push the Mariners to a World Series | Analysis
Oct. 31, 2025 at 6:00 am Updated Oct. 31, 2025 at 6:00 am

Adam Jude By Adam Jude
Seattle Times staff reporter
Three things to keep in mind as the Mariners embark on what might be the most important offseason in franchise history:

1. They have the fewest roster needs of the Jerry Dipoto/Justin Hollander regime.

2. They have the most payroll space they’ve had in the decade under Dipoto/Hollander.

3. They have one of baseball’s richest farm systems, with several highly regarded prospects expected to contribute at some point in 2026.

The Mariners got to the brink of the World Series this year because of an array of (mostly) sensible moves since the start of the franchise’s first full-blown rebuild in 2019.

There have been whiffs along the way, certainly, but in Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodríguez the Mariners have constructed baseball’s best up-the-middle core, buoyed by a pitching apparatus that produces young arms nearly as much as your neighbor’s maple tree produces leaves all over your yard.

The window to contend is as open as it has ever been for the Mariners, and they’ve reached a point in their competitive cycle where they can afford to make a “luxury” splash (or two).

Now is not the time for discipline. With a chance to capitalize on all the momentum they created this October, the Mariners need to be bold this winter.

All that in mind, here are five moves the Mariners ought to consider this offseason:

1. Trade for the best pitcher on the planet
Late in the 2024 season, as Tarik Skubal was closing in on his first AL Cy Young Award, one MLB talent evaluator with four decades of pro baseball experience made an impromptu remark about the Detroit Tigers’ ace.

“He’s the best left-handed starter I’ve ever seen,” the veteran evaluator said.

Skubal was even better in 2025, and there are early reports this offseason that he could end up pitching elsewhere in 2026.

Skubal, who turns 29 on Nov. 20, will be a free agent after the 2026 season, and he’s expected to command the largest contract ever for a pitcher, a deal that could exceed $400 million.

That price range could be too steep for Detroit to re-sign him, and some have suggested Skubal, represented by mega-agent Scott Boras, could be on the trading block this winter if the Tigers come to that conclusion — that they’d want to get some package of prospects in return before he signs a free-agent deal with, presumably, one of the sport’s behemoths (the New York Mets or the Los Angeles Dodgers) a year from now.

And if the Tigers do listen to offers, the Mariners should be first in line with a pitch to acquire the left-hander who was inducted into the Seattle U Hall of Fame in 2024.

Here’s one proposal:

Mariners get: LHP Tarik Skubal

Tigers get: RHP Logan Evans, RHP/LHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, SS Felnin Celesten.

The Mariners, to be sure, would balk at this acquisition cost. All three players going to Detroit, in this exercise, are or have been ranked among the Top 100 prospects in the sport. For comparison, the Milwaukee Brewers got back only one Top 100 prospect (infielder Joey Ortiz, plus a reliever and a competitive-balance round draft pick) for ace Corbin Burnes going into 2024, a year before he hit free agency.

Evans pitched well for the Mariners this year as a 24-year-old in his first MLB season. Celesten is a 20-year-old switch-hitting shortstop with as much upside as just about anyone in the M’s system; and Cijntje, the switch-pitcher drafted in the first round in 2024, would be a painful prospect for the M’s to part with.

And perhaps it is excessive for what would surely be only one year of any pitcher’s services.

But this is Tarik Skubal … in his prime … and in his final season at a price point the Mariners could afford (he’s projected to earn about $18 million in his final year of arbitration).

The Mariners were thisclose to their first World Series, and Skubal is the type of talent — the bow around a well-rounded roster — that could push them to the mountain top.

2. Re-sign Josh Naylor

3. Re-sign Jorge Polanco
The Mariners have one of the best outfield situations in MLB, anchored by Rodriguez in center. Randy Arozarena will be back in left field in 2026 in his final season of club control before he reaches free agency next winter.

And, sure, free agent Kyle Tucker would be an ideal fit in right field in Seattle, but the idea of the Mariners giving any free agent a $400-million deal is about as far-fetched as your neighbor voluntarily cleaning up their leaves from your yard.

The Mariners already have a manageable — and affordable — situation in right field with Victor Robles and Dominic Canzone, and all indications are they’ll run it back with that outfield mix in ’26.

The infield is not quite as settled. The Mariners haven’t closed the door on re-signing Eugenio Suárez, but the more likely path is opening the door for two young players, Ben Williamson and top prospect Colt Emerson, to win the third-base job in spring training.

Cole Young, similarly, is the early front-runner at second base.

Which brings us to Naylor and Polanco, two of the team’s October heroes.

Naylor, 28, should be the Mariners’ top priority this winter and, by all accounts, he is. For one, they don’t have a second option at first. For another, Naylor proved to be the perfect fit in Seattle.

It’ll take the largest free-agent deal Dipoto and Hollander have given to a position player — likely four years in length, and somewhere in the $18-$20-million range per year.

Naylor’s worth it, and the Mariners will ultimately realize that.

It’s a similar discussion surrounding Polanco, who is coming off one of the best seasons of his career.

He is expected to decline a $6-million club option and enter free agency ahead of his age-32 season. He could seek a two-year deal in the $12-$14 million range and, like Naylor, he’s worth that to Seattle as a player who would split time between second base and designated hitter (and serve as the backup first baseman).

4. Trade Luis Castillo
Rumors swirled about Castillo on the trade block last offseason, and that could be the case again this winter.

This wouldn’t be an easy move to orchestrate on multiple fronts.

Castillo, first off, is an enormously popular figure in the Mariners clubhouse. He’s also been enormously productive and durable, posting a 3.46 ERA across 106 starts over the past three and a half seasons in Seattle.

He’s also the Mariners’ highest-paid player, scheduled to earn $24 million in each of the next two seasons, with a $25 million vesting option for 2028. The Mariners have given no indication they would want to trade Castillo or that they need to offload his contract, and it would be challenging to get equal value in return for him.

That said, a handful of clubs with bigger payrolls — New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, to name a few — figure to need starting pitching this winter, and Castillo would be a fit for all of them.

5. Sign a proven high-leverage reliever
Over the last handful of years, the Mariners have extracted more value from their bullpen than anywhere else on their roster (and perhaps as much as any team in MLB in that area).

This year alone, Seattle’s top four relief pitchers — Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier and Eduard Bazardo — made a combined $5 million while finishing with a combined 6.6 Wins Above Replacement (via Baseball Reference).

Consider that, on the open market, a single WAR over the past couple years has been worth roughly $8-$10 million — and, yeah, that’s exceptional surplus value.

It’s time the Mariners use some of that savings and turn it into another proven late-inning reliever.

They should start by picking up all three options remaining on the club-friendly contract Muñoz signed in 2022. That deal guaranteed Muñoz $7.5 million over four seasons (through 2025), with a $6 million option for ’26, $8 million for ’27 and $10 million for ’28.

Muñoz has blossomed into one of the game’s elite closers, and guaranteeing the $24 million over the next three seasons is still a bargain for the Mariners — and, more importantly, it’ll bring Muñoz some peace of mind after he closed out this season under a cloud of contract uncertainty.

Next step: Bring in Devin Williams on a one-year, $10-million free-agent deal.

Williams, 31, had been an elite closer with the Brewers before being traded to the Yankees before the 2025 season. He posted a career-high 4.79 ERA in New York, but his underlying data remained strong this year — his changeup is still one of baseball’s most valuable pitches — and he would be a smart addition on a short-term deal.

Adding a reliever of Williams’ caliber is exactly the sort of “luxury” item the Mariners should be shopping for this winter. They’ve built up credible capital among an eager fan base, and they should invest it following their momentous October.

Adam Jude: ajude@seattletimes.com. Adam Jude is a Seattle Mariners beat writer at The Seattle Times. He previously covered UW Huskies football and the Seattle Seahawks for The Seattle Times.

[D-train]

I just read it. I have a crazy prediction. They don't resign Naylor.

I also don't think Jerry ever gives big money to a reliever again.

[Big_Maple]

They will never sign Tucker. Pipe dream.

Trading for Skubal is sounding more like a possibility. Even for one year, that would likely complete one of the best pitching rotations in baseball - but at great cost to the farm.

Trading Castillo makes sense - especially if they go after Skubal. They won't carry a 6 man rotation, so get rid of the aging vet who costs the most.

Realistically, I see them trading for Skubal, trading Castillo for another OF, signing Naylor and letting the kids play 2B and 3B. Sign a solid reliever or two and I'd say it is a world series team.

[Seattle or Bust]

I just read it. I have a crazy prediction. They don't resign Naylor.

I also don't think Jerry ever gives big money to a reliever again.

Trading 3x players in their top 10 for 1 year of a pitcher, no matter how elite, seems antithetical to what they’d usually do.

Let’s say they do that and trade Castillo. Castillo surely would bring back bullpen help. As you stated DT, they tend to pinpoint traits in relievers and trade for them or sign them. I can’t see them signing Williams for $10 million given that he’s coming off a horrible year.

[Hy Feiber]

Why has Naylor been traded so often?

[D-train]

Last season was a dream season for them. Their big move was signing Polanco. Their big trade was Austin freakin Shenton and they hoarded all of their top prospects and they were 8 outs from the WS. Why would they change anything in terms of the model.

[Seattle or Bust]

Why has Naylor been traded so often?

Hasn’t typically been a high war player… generally a 1-trick pony on the field - he’s got a nice hit tool.

Adding 30 stolen bags in a walk year surely changed that narrative.

[Captain 97]

A couple of notes. If you can pull off Celestin, Cinjinte, Evans for Skubal that would be a steal. I suspect it will take more than that. BTV has that trade 51.6 to 44.7

Castillo has zero trade value. Nobody is taking him off your hands unless you pay most of his salary. And if you have to do that whats the point? Personally I'd rather let Castillo play out the final year of his contract and then you can have Sloan/Anderson slide into that spot when he leaves. If you bring in Skubal, I'd rather make room for him by trading Kirby who could actually bring back an impactful bat.

[Big_Maple]

Last season was a dream season for them. Their big move was signing Polanco. Their big trade was signing Austin freakin Shenton and they hoarded all of their top prospects and they were 8 outs from the WS. Why would they change anything in terms of the model.

I'd argue they were one reliever, and one two-seamer away from a world series.

"In the 7th inning of Game 7 of the ALCS, the Seattle Mariners had an approximately 83.4% chance to win the game before George Springer hit a three-run home run."

I guess that just makes your point even more emphatically. But Polanco had a surprisingly good season, and they benefited from Suarez and Naylor at the trade deadline. The latter may have taught them that they should be bold at the deadline, OR that they should have acquired that talent before the season began. But I don't think they got to July and decided to stand pat with just Polanco.

[Big_Maple]

A couple of notes. If you can pull off Celestin, Cinjinte, Evans for Skubal that would be a steal. I suspect it will take more than that. BTV has that trade 51.6 to 44.7

Castillo has zero trade value. Nobody is taking him off your hands unless you pay most of his salary. And if you have to do that whats the point? Personally I'd rather let Castillo play out the final year of his contract and then you can have Sloan/Anderson slide into that spot when he leaves. If you bring in Skubal, I'd rather make room for him by trading Kirby who could actually bring back an impactful bat.

Everyone wants to trade Kirby. I sort of get it. But for my money, I'd put Miller on the chop. He has a nagging elbow issue (bone spur)? I saw some recent reports saying that he did not need surgery this off-season, but the fact that his elbow and "surgical procedure" are uttered in the same sentence suggests that he is injury prone, or injury imminent? As good as he is, let some other team assume the risk.