Alright, lets talk about actual baseball. Which young player are you more worried about regressing next year?

[bpj]

"Anyway, just wanted to talk about actual baseball in the baseball forum for some reason."

Thank you, Julio, what a relief. At the risk of starting up another shit storm, I want to say I'm furious with several of you for dumping on the forum the way you did. In case you haven't noticed, several long-time reliable posters haven't said a word since a very few of you spewed hatred on what is supposed to be a BASEBALL forum. Most noticeable in his absence about all this hateful talk about the virus is the only doctor in the forum, Sexy. Gee, why do you think that is? Maybe it is because what most of you vomited out was ridiculous from a scientific point of view.

It is remarkable to me that people who can be so intelligent about baseball can be so arrogant, ignorant, and stupid about politics. Amazing. Of those who posted about the virus, I think only Darren and Terry know me personally, and I've got to say I am really disappointed in you.

So I welcome a return to our beloved sport.

I am a Pharm D student. I don't know it all but I am running heavy hours to learn. I will say people have a right to be critical of expert opinion firing super-scary stat expectations and being way off the mark.

Thank you, Hanjag, that is a post I can respect. It is not the disagreement I'm complaining about and certainly not a critical perspective, it is the personal attack, the name-calling, and the bullying that in my mind is the problem.

Right, you just want to come lob your own shots while throwing your own two cents in (which is obviously political if you're still defending covid science like only braindead libs are anymore) and hope they take it.

Hopefully they tell you to shove it up your ass like you deserve.

[Lincoln2207]

Welp, there goes this thread.

You're right, Julio, I shouldn't have posted on this thread, I should just have shut up. I apologize to everyone for bringing it up again. So please, carry on with baseball.

[bpj]

Welp, there goes this thread.

You're right, Julio, I shouldn't have posted on this thread, I should just have shut up. I apologize to everyone for bringing it up again. So please, carry on with baseball.

The only ones you owe an apology to are Dtrain and AT.

Whats amazing is how you then continue to state your opinion and act like you're the ones that are right because, muh science. Which hasn't been right this entire catastrophe.

I don't think I've ever seen a liberal transition from their soapbox to flat out instant-hypocrisy any faster than that. Or maybe you'll say YOU meant arrogant, ignorant and stupid as endearing terms, not personal attacks.

Get a damn clue. We're all adults and realize this is the biggest election in recent history, if not ever.

Some people may not feel that way, that's fine too. But its election season and some people have toed their lines.

Maybe some of you weren't around in 2016, but we survived that too. Keep it off the Mariners forum, fine. But don't think you can say anything and it will be unquestioned like you're used to in life.

To be honest, I think some of the nicer-than-I posters here hold back a lot of what they probably would say to you libs only because they do know you in person. Yet you people continue to take your shots. Those guys are saints because your lot are blessed with a special kind of stupidity. Libiots.

Also, calling Sexy a doctor would be a stretch. No doubt he led some of you to believe that though in the midst of feeding your hysteria. Glorified xray delivery boy right?

[DavidGee24]

Kikuchi was 0.1, he might not even reach 1.1 over the course of his career.

I've got to go with Dunn on regressing too. The only way he can even be moderately successful is if he nibbles and that's really hard to sustain.

I think you are talking BWAR vs FWAR for them. but 1.1 per 162 is really good considering the 6 man vs 5 man.

Just scaling up 60 to 162 for a 6-man in 2021 is a 3 WAR pace and on a 5 man /162 pace you scale that up to 3.5 FWAR.
Remember his fip was in the low 2's and fip is a greater predicter of future ERA than ERA.

1.1 is not good in either respect. One thing that fans mistakenly think is that "replacement player" means "average player", which it doesn't. "Replacement player" actually means "someone who sucks". Your average player over the course of a season will put up a 1.8 bWAR. Over the course of a full season, Kikuchi costs you about 1 1/2 games in the standings more than an average starting pitcher does...for a lot of money.

[Hanjag]

Kikuchi was 0.1, he might not even reach 1.1 over the course of his career.

I've got to go with Dunn on regressing too. The only way he can even be moderately successful is if he nibbles and that's really hard to sustain.

I think you are talking BWAR vs FWAR for them. but 1.1 per 162 is really good considering the 6 man vs 5 man.

Just scaling up 60 to 162 for a 6-man in 2021 is a 3 WAR pace and on a 5 man /162 pace you scale that up to 3.5 FWAR.
Remember his fip was in the low 2's and fip is a greater predicter of future ERA than ERA.

1.1 is not good in either respect. One thing that fans mistakenly think is that "replacement player" means "average player", which it doesn't. "Replacement player" actually means "someone who sucks". Your average player over the course of a season will put up a 1.8 bWAR. Over the course of a full season, Kikuchi costs you about 1 1/2 games in the standings more than an average starting pitcher does...for a lot of money.

WAR was not scaled down to 2020. And typically a playoff team should average about 40 WAR a 25 man team that averaged 45 WAR would be in contention,

[D-train]

Unbelievably Dunn had the worst WAR on the team for pitchers that threw 10+ innings. -0.3

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... =&enddate=

Your guy Kikuchi was 3rd with 1.1 WAR, which would have been what, 2.5 over the course of a season?!?! I think Dunn will have a stint in the minors at some point next season, and I still haven't ruled out him as an eventual bullpen guy.

Next June, who do you think is more likely to be a starter, Dunn or Kikuchi. Assuming they add a starter in the offseason (which is probably not a safe assumption)

Marco
Sheffield
FA (T. Walker?!)
Gilbert (after 6 weeks)
Kikuchi/Dunn????

Who would you feel better about in that 5th spot.

They have already said they are going with a 6 man again so both.

[D-train]

I think Moore and Sheffield have earned 2B and SP4. Lewis could drop off even worse and survive just fine in CF, he's an easy Yes on getting another season.

Dunn still seems like he might be a fine 7th inning guy, but didn't earn a spot when we should be contending, imo

Nothing about Dunn leads me to believe he is a reliever in today's game. Lack of control and velocity. His only hope is like a #5 starter if his control improves. What's crazy is his BB/9 was 2.7 with Ark and 6.1 this season. He get's it to 2.7 and he is in business.

[D-train]

Thanks for starting the new thread, Juliooo.

I thought about this, and I have to look at it carefully, as I was ready to mistake 'regressing' with 'not improving', and it's easy for me to mistake the latter for the former.

At the present time, I'd probably say Sheffield.

Kikuchi, I think is a lost cause as a starter (unless someone in the front office eats crow and moves him to the 4 or 5 slot in the rotation, before being assigned to the bullpen) so I can't count him as 'regressing', since he never met (my) expectations as a starter in the first place. (Again), He now should be targeted as an overpriced bullpen option where, maybe, his morse-code flashes of dominance can be better matched to situational matchups, rather than attempting to slog through 100 pitches of entertaining the gods of baseball into a 'thumbs up' or 'thumbs down' decision. Dunn holds his own, I believe, much better than Kikuchi does, and shows poise, intelligence and talent.

Any regression on his part would hurt, but not as much, IMO, if Sheffield lapsed into his 2019 form.

I think Sheff has figured it out. After his first two starts he only had one bad start. And pitched at least 6 innings in all but one of those starts and 5 innings in the last start of the season.

His last 8 starts he was 6-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 41 Ks in 47 innings (avg. of 6 innings a start) and a .622 OPS against. Will still only be 24 yo on OD next season. Paxton hasn't pitched since Aug. 20th LOL Killed that trade.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... &year=2020

[D-train]

Thanks for starting the new thread, Juliooo.

I thought about this, and I have to look at it carefully, as I was ready to mistake 'regressing' with 'not improving', and it's easy for me to mistake the latter for the former.

At the present time, I'd probably say Sheffield.

Kikuchi, I think is a lost cause as a starter (unless someone in the front office eats crow and moves him to the 4 or 5 slot in the rotation, before being assigned to the bullpen) so I can't count him as 'regressing', since he never met (my) expectations as a starter in the first place. (Again), He now should be targeted as an overpriced bullpen option where, maybe, his morse-code flashes of dominance can be better matched to situational matchups, rather than attempting to slog through 100 pitches of entertaining the gods of baseball into a 'thumbs up' or 'thumbs down' decision. Dunn holds his own, I believe, much better than Kikuchi does, and shows poise, intelligence and talent.

Any regression on his part would hurt, but not as much, IMO, if Sheffield lapsed into his 2019 form.

yeah, I did say "worry about" which is not so much who you think will do it, but which would be more of a problem in your mind. Sheffield could easily lose the command that he had, and could have a huge drop off. I do think he's figured it out though, and his confidence is through the roof, so right now, I guess I'm just not that worried. KLew came as such a surprise early in the season, I just worry it was a flash in the pan. He could easily regress, but I also think he could improve the most out of those listed too. I have no idea where he will end up as a player. He could be an MVP candidate, or he could be a barely above average OF with occasionaly hot streaks. I think we have a better idea with the other 3. Moore is a starting 2B or very capable utility guy. Sheffield is a #3-#4 starter. Dunn is a #5 starter or reliever.

Sheff could be a #2. 2.64 ERA in his last 8 starts with almost a K per inning at age 24.

[D-train]

I'm not worried about Sheffield at all. I like pitchers that own their style and learn how to dominate with it. He has. Sheff isn't "figuring it out" anymore...

Dunn on the other hand still is... I don't think he's got a great idea of what to do with his secondary pitches. He struggles to throw them for strikes when he's not confident. Too often he gets into "I can't throw a strike mode" and when you look at a guy like Kikuchi that scares you... too prone to falling off a cliff instead of knowing you have the ability to pitch out of it. Dunn would be one of my picks...

I think White will come in a new man. His tools are too good... I actually think not having a full ST and then sitting around for a while hurt him. In ST he was hitting .333/.370/.458...

Kyle scares me a for a couple reasons. He only hit 3 doubles in 242 plate appearances. For a guy with an .800+ OPS that's gotta be some kind of record. Tells me he doesn't square it up consistently enough... he was basically a base-hit machine until even those weren't falling. He appeared to totally lose it in the final 20 games of the season... swing and a miss rate went WAY up. He stopped staying on the curve ball and driving it to right field... seemed to get pull happy... needs to stay up the middle and not pull off it. Also seemed like he went from a very confident hitter to someone who was guessing every pitch. He looked like he was way more comfortable taking walks than swinging the bat. That said, I love his makeup... he's talented and smart which will carry you a long way. I think the ROY victory has gotta give him confidence going forward.

Dylan Moore on the other hand does not scare me. I love his approach at the plate... he's a scrapper and he hits pitches he's not supposed to which makes him a nightmare... there's really no way to pitch to him that's totally effective. I also don't see his sneaky pop disappearing. He reminds me a lot of Mark Cahna... Gonna perform with a bat in his hand even though you don't really expect him to.

Good assessment. You are more hopeful than I with White but hoping you nail it.