Mariners to sign James Paxton

[Sibelius Hindemith]

From the article..

Many of Paxton’s underlying metrics, however, were far more bullish. He registered a 4.37 FIP/3.88 SIERA, typically-strong 28.9 percent strikeout rate and roughly-league-average 7.8 percent walk rate. He even put up a career-high in average fastball velocity at 90.7 mph.

Huh? Wasn't his fastball in the upper 90's when he was with the Mariners previously?

Someone confused James Paxton's 2020 exit velocity (90.7 mph) with his 2020 fastball velocity (92.1 mph):

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james ... atted-ball

It wasn't just that. My point was that if a casual baseball fan like me is aware that Paxton threw upper 90's and averaged mid 90's early in his career, how would someone that writes articles analyzing MLB players think that 90.7 avg could possibly be a career high for him?

[Vogelbomb]

hahhaha Hell yes! Suck it, DT

[harmony]

The comp of James Paxton and Jake Odorizzi since the start of the 2019 season:

JP 34 GS, 171.0 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.92 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 3.8 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR
JO 34 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.58 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 4.2 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR

Paxton is about 17 months older than Odorizzi.

Steamer and ZiPS project Paxton with 2021 WAR of 2.1 in 26 starts and 2.7 in 23 starts while projecting Odorizzi with 2021 WAR of 1.7 in 28 starts and 1.8 in 24 starts.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james ... position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake- ... position=P

The 2021 Marcel projections for Paxton and Odorizzi:

JP 102 IP, 4.32 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.16 K/BB
JO 94 IP, 4.31 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 2.72 K/BB

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... ja01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... ja01.shtml

MLB Trade Rumors predicted Paxton with a one-year, $10 million contract and Odorizzi with a three-year, $39 million contract:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... -2021.html

FanGraphs columnist Craig Edwards predicted Paxton with a one-year, $15 million contract and Odorizzi with a one-year, $12 million contract while FanGraphs' crowdsource predicted Paxton with a two-year, $30 million contract and Odorizzi with a three-year, $39 million contract.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

[Sibelius Hindemith]

So Sham-wow didn't over-spend on Paxton. Was that your point?

[harmony]

So Sham-wow didn't over-spend on Paxton. Was that your point?

A reader can draw whatever conclusion.

FWIW MLB Trade Rumors ranked Jake Odorizzi and James Paxton No. 11 and No. 22 among free agents while FanGraphs ranked Odorizzi and Paxton No. 24 and No. 13.

[ddraig]

Still think I'd go after Walker and then use the younger guys as a taxi squad from Tacoma when injuries set in. The weak link in the rotation could be Kikuchi.

[D-train]

From the article..



Huh? Wasn't his fastball in the upper 90's when he was with the Mariners previously?

Someone confused James Paxton's 2020 exit velocity (90.7 mph) with his 2020 fastball velocity (92.1 mph):

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james ... atted-ball

It wasn't just that. My point was that if a casual baseball fan like me is aware that Paxton threw upper 90's and averaged mid 90's early in his career, how would someone that writes articles analyzing MLB players think that 90.7 avg could possibly be a career high for him?

I never cease to be amazed at the stupid shit people say and write that are paid to do so.

[D-train]

hahhaha Hell yes! Suck it, DT

You haven't been this excited since Wilhelmsen became a starter........Oh wait. lol

[D-train]

The comp of James Paxton and Jake Odorizzi since the start of the 2019 season:

JP 34 GS, 171.0 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.92 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 3.8 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR
JO 34 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.58 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 4.2 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR

Paxton is about 17 months older than Odorizzi.

Steamer and ZiPS project Paxton with 2021 WAR of 2.1 in 26 starts and 2.7 in 23 starts while projecting Odorizzi with 2021 WAR of 1.7 in 28 starts and 1.8 in 24 starts.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james ... position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake- ... position=P

The 2021 Marcel projections for Paxton and Odorizzi:

JP 102 IP, 4.32 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.16 K/BB
JO 94 IP, 4.31 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 2.72 K/BB

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... ja01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... ja01.shtml

MLB Trade Rumors predicted Paxton with a one-year, $10 million contract and Odorizzi with a three-year, $39 million contract:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... -2021.html

FanGraphs columnist Craig Edwards predicted Paxton with a one-year, $15 million contract and Odorizzi with a one-year, $12 million contract while FanGraphs' crowdsource predicted Paxton with a two-year, $30 million contract and Odorizzi with a three-year, $39 million contract.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

Perhaps the difference is that Jake O. started 182 games from 2014-19 and Pax started 127 in that same time frame.

[BaseHitDerby]

Paxton needs to stop changing his delivery and go back to the old ones. This could be a contributing factor in all those damn injuries and decreased velocity. I remember watching the ESPN Sunday telecast of him against the BoSox last season and the announcers said he changed his delivery, which is like the 3rd or 4th time in his career already.