Castillo Conundrum

[Seattle or Bust]

I keep wondering about Castillo's disappearing changeup. A few years ago he had one of the best changeups in MLB and then he joined the Mariners and since then has transitioned to primarily 4-seam fastball, sinker, and slider, with the changeup used as an occasional show me pitch. It is also true that as he has changed his pitch mix and de-prioritized the changeup, the changeup has become less effective. What I would like to know is this: why the adjustment? Was there a deterioration in the movement qualities of the changeup that forced the adjustment, or was it a proactive suggestion by the Mariners?

His average fastball velocity when we acquired him from Cincy was 97.1 MPH. He has lost velocity as he has aged which in turn makes his change up less effective. Same thing that took Felix from a perennial Cy young Contender to being out of baseball by age 34.

But the transition started several years ago and his velocity has mostly been 95+. Felix's loss of velocity was much more severe and as I recall it started getting talked about fairly early in his career.

Even this year, if you look on Baseball Savant, Castillo's average 4-seam velocity is 94.8 and his sinker is 95.1. There are plenty of pitchers that would love to have that kind of arm power.

It was severe because it was intentional. He changed his style around 2012 to more of a sinker baller to better compliment his change up. His velo dipped by about 3 MPH earlier in his career by 2012 and he managed to put up 20+ bWAR the next 4 years.

Castillo's is simply his arm. And he doesn't have the command or quality of the secondary stuff to make up for it.

[bpj]

The real answer is that they should have traded him- at the latest- this past offseason.

Can't keep riding these contracts out and getting zero back into the system for them.

Especially when you've pretty much eliminated yourself from the free agency market, and they're on the back end of a contract.

Talent exits, but not enough coming back in. They're wasting opportunities in my opinion.

[HawkandMariner88]

What would he have brought back last year. Could you have conned Milwaukee to part with McGill or Uribe. Would Boston have parted with Abreu or Duran. Sell high when you can.

[GL_Storm]

They can't trade him and they won't simply eat the money remaining on his contract. That just isn't going to happen. So I think he probably stays in the rotation for now and they keep working with him, trying to figure out a way to make him more effective.