D-trains WAR and win projections

[IStillLoveTheMs]

WAR also doesn't cover Scott Servais's gaffs. He's worth at least 7 losses on his own.

[gil]

WAR also doesn't cover Scott Servais's gaffs. He's worth at least 7 losses on his own.

But seriously, has anyone seen a WAR or other objective measure of managers' performance?

[gil]

I'm curious how well WAR tracks with actual W-L results. Has anyone looked at this for the Ms in recent years?

[D-train]

I'm curious how well WAR tracks with actual W-L results. Has anyone looked at this for the Ms in recent years?

There's a correlation measure in the article that I posted in the thread

[D-train]

WAR also doesn't cover Scott Servais's gaffs. He's worth at least 7 losses on his own.

But seriously, has anyone seen a WAR or other objective measure of managers' performance?

Impossible

[DavidGee24]

WAR also doesn't cover Scott Servais's gaffs. He's worth at least 7 losses on his own.

As much as he sucks, even someone like Maury Wills would probably cost you 3-4 games at the most. Remember, most games you lose after a really bonehead move you probably would have lost anyway.

[D-train]

WAR also doesn't cover Scott Servais's gaffs. He's worth at least 7 losses on his own.

As much as he sucks, even someone like Maury Wills would probably cost you 3-4 games at rhe most. Remember, most games you lose after a really bonehead move you probably would have lost anyway.

totally agree regarding in game decisions but I don't know about you guys but I think I have been more productive with a boss that I respect in the one I despise and may have even resulted in more than three or four days a year where I out performed vs said fuck this shit

[D-train]

This guy obviously has not gone through this exercise. lol

Dan Clark
@DanClarkSports
·
17h
Top 6 MLB Teams

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. New York Yankees
3. San Diego Padres
4. Atlanta Braves
5. New York Mets
6. Chicago White Sox

Bottom 6 MLB Teams

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Detroit Tigers
6. Baltimore Orioles

[bpj]

I think it looks optimistic overall, but good.

With Paxton on-board I think we're an 85 win team. With a 3 WAR LF I think it would add another 5 wins because the slop we have for LF is an easy -2 WAR.

Even if they just take a hail mary on a guy like Puig (or is Cespedes still alive?) in spring training, I think our chances would be better than leaving LF as an obvious negative.

I'd trade Seager/Dunn if possible to clear the playing time for France and trade Dunn in on a younger SP, if anyone even bites on either player.

I think they'd be doing Seager a huge favor by letting him showcase at 2B this year, either with us or elsewhere.

We can all look at his stats at this point and see a guy that doesn't make the cut as a 3B, but would still be an average 2B.

[D-train]

I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5
JK 1.7
8.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7
Evan White, 1B 1.3
Ty France, IF 3.5
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1
12.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8
Luis Torrens 1.2
3.0

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6
Team Wins: 92.2

Wow! I thought I would be at like 77 wins. Where am I being too optimistic? Maybe France? Other than him I don't think any of my individual WARs are crazy. Let me know if so.

Fangraphs is very pessimistic imo

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