By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
When Yordan Alvarez unleashed hell and fury on a 99-mph fastball from lefty Jose Alvarado, sending something faster than a comet to the farthest reaches of Minute Maid Park in Houston on Saturday night, the 2022 season was effectively over.
Yes, it was only the sixth inning and Alvarez’s three-run homer had provided only a 3-1 lead. But even most die-hard Phillies fans understood that a Houston victory was inevitable.
And that sickly feeling for Mariners fans, who lived through a similar postseason moment with Alvarez in late innings, twice, resonated.
With their eventual 4-1 win and their fourth Champagne celebration of the postseason, the Astros closed the book on the 2022 season and officially started the offseason in preparation for 2023.
Here are a few important dates to consider.
Sunday — The day after the final out of the World Series, players who have expiring major-league contracts become free agents. The Mariners have five players on the 40-man roster who will become free agents:
Matthew Boyd, LHP
Curt Casali, C
Adam Frazier, IF
Mitch Haniger, OF
Carlos Santana, 1B/DH
The Mariners have a five-day window to negotiate with their expiring free agents on a possible reunion before other teams can make official offers.
This is also the first day that teams can make trades involving major-league players or “the most wonderful day of the year” for Jerry Dipoto, Mariners president of baseball operations
Nov. 8-10 — The GM meetings begin officially in the morning at the swanky Conrad Hotel and Resort in the newly opened Resorts World property in Las Vegas. While the annual MLB Winter Meetings generate much of the attention, the less publicized GM meetings have become hotbeds of activity.
A year ago, Dipoto and the Reds engaged in multiple talks about acquiring Suarez, Castillo and Jesse Winker, and they all eventually became Mariners in future trades.
Always a fan of working early in the trade market, Dipoto and newly named general manager Justin Hollander are expected to be quite active over the short set of meetings. Agents for all of the top free agents on the market will be there for face-to-face meetings with interested clubs.
Nov. 10 — The fifth day after the World Series is the end of the “quiet period” for free agents. Their representatives can start negotiating or even sign with any team. It’s also the last day for a club to tender a “qualifying offer” to free agents.
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Of the Mariners five free agents, only Haniger fits the criteria for being eligible for a qualifying offer.
Under the collective-bargaining agreement between the Major League Baseball Players Association and Major League Baseball, the Mariners can make a qualifying offer to Haniger because he was on their roster for the entire 2022 season.
The qualifying offer is a one-year contract for a salary that is the mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players.
The salary for a player receiving a qualifying offer would be $19.65 million for 2023. It’s the highest qualifying-offer salary since the system was enacted in 2011.
It would represent a significant raise for Haniger, whose salary was $7.75 million in 2022 in his final year of arbitration. The $19.65 million is more than the combined $14.87 million he made over six seasons in Seattle.
If a player declines a qualifying offer and opts for free agency, his team would receive a compensatory pick in the 2023 MLB draft. The position of that draft pick is based on the financial commitment of the player’s free-agent contract and if his former team is receiving revenue sharing from or paying MLB’s competitive balance tax (CBT).
Both sides have been quiet about Haniger’s future. He’s stated he’d like to return to the organization. But he’s also looking for some financial stability after finally reaching free agency.
This is also the deadline for MLB teams to return all players on the 60-day injured list back to the 40-man roster. Expect the Mariners to start making roster decisions in the days leading up to the deadline. Seattle currently has two players on the 60-day injured list: catcher Tom Murphy and reliever Casey Sadler.
Nov. 15 — The deadline for any free agent who has received a qualifying offer from his former team to either accept or decline it.
Nov. 18 — The deadline for MLB teams to tender contracts to club-controlled and arbitration-eligible players for the 2023 season.
The Mariners currently have 12 arbitration-eligible players. Here is their year of arbitration and projected possible salary from MLB Trade Rumors algorithm:
Tom Murphy (third year): $1.9 million
Diego Castillo (second year): $2.9 million
Paul Sewald (second): $3.6 million
Ryan Borucki (second): $1.1 million
Casey Sadler (second): $1.025 million
Dylan Moore (second): $2 million
Erik Swanson (first): $1.4 million
Luis Torrens (second): $1.2 million
Ty France (first): $4.7 million
Abraham Toro (first): $1.4 million
Kyle Lewis (first): $1.2 million
There are some very interesting situations with this group of arbitration-eligible players. The Mariners will have to make a decision on whether Murphy or Torrens will serve as backup catcher to Raleigh. Diego Castillo could be a non-tender candidate. It’s unlikely the Mariners would want to pay him and Sewald a combined $6 million in a season. Do the Mariners also want to pay Toro more than $1 million as a utility player if they decide to keep Moore on the roster?
It’s also the deadline for teams to place any players eligible for the Rule 5 draft to the 40-man roster for protection. A player signed at age 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons or become eligible. A player who signs at 19 or older (college draft picks) must be added to the roster within four years. Obviously, a plethora of players will become Rule 5 eligible, but how many in the Mariners organization are worthy of protection in fear of them being taken in the draft by another team?
A few possibilities include:
Isaiah Campbell, RHP
Prelander Berroa, RHP
Travis Kuhn, RHP
Robert Perez Jr., 1B/OF
Dec. 5-7 — MLB Winter Meetings at the Hyatt Regency in San Diego.
Dec. 6 — The inaugural MLB Draft Lottery will be held in San Diego and also the 2023 World Baseball Classic Media Day. The Mariners could have more than 10 players committed to WBC teams going into spring training.
Dec. 7 — Rule 5 Draft in San Diego.
Feb. 24 — Mariners open Cactus League play vs. the Padres at Peoria Stadium.
March 30 — Opening day of the 2023 baseball season. The Mariners host the Guardians at T-Mobile Park.
