Correlation between wins and payroll in 2023

[Seattle or Bust]

I'm in the sign more pitching, then trade pitching for hitting camp.

Gotta trade one of Woo or Miller this off season for a bat.

[D-train]

I'm in the sign more pitching, then trade pitching for hitting camp.

Gotta trade one of Woo or Miller this off season for a bat.

Why not just trade one of the four SS prospects.

[D-train]

We have ZERO SP depth. Even if we sign a FA after trading we will still be screwed after the first injury. Trade one or two of our top 10 prospects.

[bpj]

I'm in the sign more pitching, then trade pitching for hitting camp.

Gotta trade one of Woo or Miller this off season for a bat.

Why not just trade one of the four SS prospects.

In my opinion, because they can sign free agent pitching to replace anything we lose in trade. They seem to have trouble drawing bats, whether it's weak offers or fear of T-Mobile.

So imo they need to keep as many bats in the system as possible because only a small portion of them will work out, and we need the ones that do to still be here.

Even Marco Gonzales can masquerade as a decent pitcher in Seattle, we just need to score some runs.

[ice99]

I created two graphs. Even if you keep the 5 outliers in there. (Yankees, Mets and Padres were all good last season) the trend line of wins is negative as you lower payroll. A very clear correlation. If you remove the outliers the trends is even more blatant.

pr graph w.JPG

There is a trend but I don't know. If you didn't give any credit to payroll and you guessed 81 wins, then you'd be within +/= 20 wins, 90% of the time, with an average error of, I don't know say 8 wins?

There seems to be trend line but what is the average error from the line? It seems quite a bit.

[D-train]

Gotta trade one of Woo or Miller this off season for a bat.

Why not just trade one of the four SS prospects.

In my opinion, because they can sign free agent pitching to replace anything we lose in trade. They seem to have trouble drawing bats, whether it's weak offers or fear of T-Mobile.

So imo they need to keep as many bats in the system as possible because only a small portion of them will work out, and we need the ones that do to still be here.

Even Marco Gonzales can masquerade as a decent pitcher in Seattle, we just need to score some runs.

Right, I just don't trust them to replace Miller or Woo with a better or even equal option.

[D-train]

I created two graphs. Even if you keep the 5 outliers in there. (Yankees, Mets and Padres were all good last season) the trend line of wins is negative as you lower payroll. A very clear correlation. If you remove the outliers the trends is even more blatant.

pr graph w.JPG

There is a trend but I don't know. If you didn't give any credit to payroll and you guessed 81 wins, then you'd be within +/= 20 wins, 90% of the time, with an average error of, I don't know say 8 wins?

There seems to be trend line but what is the average error from the line? It seems quite a bit.

There is clearly a lot of movement around the trend but it is enough of a trend to conclude that you are not going decrease your likely win total by spending more like many on twitter argue.

[bpj]

Why not just trade one of the four SS prospects.

In my opinion, because they can sign free agent pitching to replace anything we lose in trade. They seem to have trouble drawing bats, whether it's weak offers or fear of T-Mobile.

So imo they need to keep as many bats in the system as possible because only a small portion of them will work out, and we need the ones that do to still be here.

Even Marco Gonzales can masquerade as a decent pitcher in Seattle, we just need to score some runs.

Right, I just don't trust them to replace Miller or Woo with a better or even equal option.

I get it, I just don't see them as hard to replace. At all.

Miller and Woo have ERA'S of 4.17 and 4.39.

Even Meatball Marco in 2021 and 2022 had ERA'S of 3.96 and 4.13.

[Captain 97]

Gonzalez is supposed to be ready in the spring and theoretically Robbie Ray could come back some time towards the end of next season. Not sure what Hancock status is but he should be in the mix at some point too. I think there is enough depth where they could afford to trade off Woo or Miller especially if they go out and sign a Free agent pitcher.

[Captain 97]

I really don't put much stock in the trade values site but they have Miller valued at 20.2 and Woo at 25.2. Pete Alonso is at 16.6 and Soto is at 21.8. Theoretically you could trade Woo and change for Soto and Miller and Change for Alonso. Resign Teoscar and Go out and sign Sonny Gray and you have a rotation of...
1. Kirby
2 Castillo
3. Gray
4. Gilbert
5. Hancock/Gonzalez/ Ray

and a Lineup of

1. JP SS
2. Julio CF
3. Soto RF
4. Alonso 1B
5. Teo LF
6. Suarez 3b
6. Raleigh C
8. France/Murphy/Ford DH
9. Rojas/ Moore / Caballero 2b

Obviously this is just some rosterbation but following a strategy something like this would be a good template in my opinion.