Jerry

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:32 pm

Actually the team with the best record hasn't won the WS that often. 88-92 wins seems the sweet spot. Expanding the playoff format has leveled the playing field


Contrast that rate of sub-90 win playoff teams hoisting the Commissioner’s “piece of metal” (nearly 11% of seasons), with how often the team with the best regular season record wins it all. From the implementation of four divisions in 1969 to the beginning of the Wild Card era (25 seasons) eight teams had the best regular season record and won the World Series. That meant in about 32% of those seasons the best team came out on top in October.

Since 1995, now 27 full seasons, that’s happened just 6 times, or in only 22.2% of seasons since the introduction of the Wild Card. Four of the World Series-winning underdog teams above have come since 1995, meaning that a sub-90-win club has won it all in 14.8% of seasons. It’s intuitive that as the MLB playoffs have expanded, the road would have gotten more difficult for the favorites, and we see that play out in the data.
https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/10/3/2 ... wins-fared
Last edited by Donn Beach on Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Jerry

Post by Seattle or Bust » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:34 pm

I don't think anyone would be complaining if the 54% comment had led to anything.

So far winning 88-92 games has gotten us one wildcard birth in the 4 years since the rebuild was complete... where our shit offense went dormant against a team that has dominated us and our division.

He's saying teams that win 54% of their games over a decade tend to leave that decade with a World Series title... well prove it fuck head. And listen, I get it... Stanton is cheap... but so were the A's from 2018-2020... they won around 58% of their games and put up multiple top-half offenses.

I'm sorry, but lack of spending isn't why this M's offense sucks. They suck because that dugout is a culture of offensive suckage.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:36 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:34 pm
I don't think anyone would be complaining if the 54% comment had led to anything.

So far winning 88-92 games has gotten us one wildcard birth in the 4 years since the rebuild was complete... where our shit offense went dormant against a team that has dominated us and our division.

He's saying teams that win 54% of their games over a decade tend to leave that decade with a World Series title... well prove it fuck head. And listen, I get it... Stanton is cheap... but so were the A's from 2018-2020... they won around 58% of their games and put up multiple top-half offenses.

I'm sorry, but lack of spending isn't why this M's offense sucks. They suck because that dugout is a culture of offensive suckage.
Again, Dipoto hasn't won at a 54 rate

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Re: Jerry

Post by Seattle or Bust » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:38 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:36 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:34 pm
I don't think anyone would be complaining if the 54% comment had led to anything.

So far winning 88-92 games has gotten us one wildcard birth in the 4 years since the rebuild was complete... where our shit offense went dormant against a team that has dominated us and our division.

He's saying teams that win 54% of their games over a decade tend to leave that decade with a World Series title... well prove it fuck head. And listen, I get it... Stanton is cheap... but so were the A's from 2018-2020... they won around 58% of their games and put up multiple top-half offenses.

I'm sorry, but lack of spending isn't why this M's offense sucks. They suck because that dugout is a culture of offensive suckage.
Again, Dipoto hasn't won at a 54 rate
He has since the rebuild was complete. They've actually won 55% of their games since then.

It's led to 1x playoff birth.

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Re: Jerry

Post by Big_Maple » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:43 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:32 pm
Actually the team with the best record hasn't won the WS that often. 88-92 wins seems the sweet spot. Expanding the playoff format has leveled the playing field

https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/10/3/2 ... wins-fared
Yes, but to be fair, the Twins now have a Rally Sausage which gives them an unfair advantage.

https://www.mlb.com/news/what-is-the-st ... ly-sausage

"Rally Sausage" sounds like the nickname an 80 year old man might give his penis.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:45 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:38 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:36 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:34 pm
I don't think anyone would be complaining if the 54% comment had led to anything.

So far winning 88-92 games has gotten us one wildcard birth in the 4 years since the rebuild was complete... where our shit offense went dormant against a team that has dominated us and our division.

He's saying teams that win 54% of their games over a decade tend to leave that decade with a World Series title... well prove it fuck head. And listen, I get it... Stanton is cheap... but so were the A's from 2018-2020... they won around 58% of their games and put up multiple top-half offenses.

I'm sorry, but lack of spending isn't why this M's offense sucks. They suck because that dugout is a culture of offensive suckage.
Again, Dipoto hasn't won at a 54 rate
He has since the rebuild was complete. They've actually won 55% of their games since then.

It's led to 1x playoff birth.
But the formula doesn't work in that small a sample. It's over a decade, he's been at it seven years? He's below 54%

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Re: Jerry

Post by Seattle or Bust » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:48 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:45 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:38 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:36 pm


Again, Dipoto hasn't won at a 54 rate
He has since the rebuild was complete. They've actually won 55% of their games since then.

It's led to 1x playoff birth.
But the formula doesn't work in that small a sample. It's over a decade, he's been at it seven years? He's below 54%
That's a silly thing to apply to his tenure when they quite literally threw the 2019 season on purpose and used the Covid year as a rebuild year.

Point is, they've won more than 54% of their games over the past 4 seasons and it has gotten them nothing. I'm not holding my breath with this trash offense that winning 88-92 games (which they're right on track to do) in 2024 will produce anything different than a playoff birth and quick exit.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:53 pm

They just got done taking a series from the defending champions as well as the runner up

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Re: Jerry

Post by Seattle or Bust » Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:54 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 4:53 pm
They just got done taking a series from the defending champions as well as the runner up
God you are impossible.

They're 16-13 with one of the league's worst offenses. Get a clue.

Their pitching stuff is on a historic run of sub 1.50 ERA baseball over their last 17 games. They're 12-5... you think that's sustainable?

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Apr 30, 2024 5:04 pm

Terms of odds, they are in eighth spot to win the WS

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/m ... eries-odds

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