In memoriam: Mariners vs Rangers game thread

[Juliooooo]

Why OPS isn't fair to guys who can steal bags. In my humble opinion...

Mallex has effectively 2 lead off doubles.

Edit: now triple.

Double edit: now homerun LOL

Flawed logic like this is why they don't get it.

A triple drives in every runner ahead of you. A 1B and two SB not only doesn't score those runs- because it assumes nobody is on base ahead of you- but it still relies on players behind you to perform.

Do you know what happens to probabilities when you start having to count on the next guy to perform?

Do the math using OBP.

.360 is your OBP. Now factor in the chance that the guy behind you performs.

.360x.360 = .1296% chance of both reaching base.

And if that guy draws a walk and you need to rely on the guy behind him?

.360x.360x.360= .046656

Every player you can rely on to score a run THIS at bat is the most important because the chances of two good outcomes is much less likely than one.

Which is why getting on base is not as important as how you do it.

A BB does not equal a single because a single can score guys from 2B and 3B, etc.

I understand that, but not factoring in SB is flawed as well, too. A walk for Mallex Smith, he can steal a base, and a single scores him. A walk for Vogelbach, a single moves him to 2B, another single moves him to 3B, and a 3rd single would score him.

[bpj]

I've said many times you take OBP into account on it's own, and/or you take OPS into account on its own.

Then you factor in SB's as a separate plus or minus.

It has literally nothing to do with OBP and OPS so it's not taken into account until you take into account... STOLEN BASES.

The likelihood of BB and counting on the hitter behind you driving you in is not something I would count on. I just gave a mathematical example why, so I won't waste more keystrokes explaining it to you.

I value Vogelbachs SLG not his walks. Guy's slugging .500 when the ball's in play. So, I want the ball in play.

[Juliooooo]

I've said many times you take OBP into account on it's own, and/or you take OPS into account on its own.

Then you factor in SB's as a separate plus or minus.

It has literally nothing to do with OBP and OPS so it's not taken into account until you take into account... STOLEN BASES.

The likelihood of BB and counting on the hitter behind you in is not something I would count on. I just gave a mathematical example why, so I won't waste more keystrokes explaining it to you.

I value Vogelbachs SLG not his walks.

That was my whole point originally was exactly that. Vogelbach helps you with slugging, Speedsters can help you by getting on base so there is a better chance that the singles or doubles by Santana and Vogelbach score runs. You have to assign some value to the speed these guys bring you.

[Donn Beach]

I've said many times you take OBP into account on it's own, and/or you take OPS into account on its own

but OPS is half OBP...sorry but you really lost me there

[bpj]

I've said many times you take OBP into account on it's own, and/or you take OPS into account on its own

but OPS is half OBP...sorry but you really lost me there

You can't try and squeeze stolen bases into either by acting like a 1B+SB is a double because OPS is about scoring the guys on base ahead of you, which SB's don't factor into.

OBP and OPS can paint very different pictures despite being inclusive Don.

[Jack Merridew]

How about one of you guys start a thread specific to what you are arguing about rather than using this one. I guess bpj ought to since he was the one who revived this thread after 74 days of nobody posting on it.

Why?

Because nobody knows WTF you guys are going on about without reading through all the pages of insult laden bickering. How about starting your own thread with a thread title that clues people in to what it is you are debating? Otherwise perhaps you guys should just PM each other.

[Juliooooo]

Let me give an example of where speed isn't factored in, but can help you score. A few games ago, Mallex Smith drew a leadoff walk. Crawford then grounded out to 2B. A slow runner on 1B is likely a double play, or at least a forceout at 2B. Then Santana hit a sharp single to LF. Mallex Smith was able to score just ahead of the throw. 80 % of players probably don't score from 2B on that single. That is how simply getting on base can help you. Problem is, Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith don't do it enough. Smith because he doesn't hit well enough, Gordon because he can't take a walk.

[bpj]

How about one of you guys start a thread specific to what you are arguing about rather than using this one. I guess bpj ought to since he was the one who revived this thread after 74 days of nobody posting on it.

Why?

Because nobody knows WTF you guys are going on about without reading through all the pages of insult laden bickering. How about starting your own thread with a thread title that clues people in to what it is you are debating? Otherwise perhaps you guys should just PM each other.

I talk to the 4 people who bother posting.

I'm not a liberal so I'm not going to worry about hurting the feelings of the lurkers who can't follow along.

[bpj]

I've said many times you take OBP into account on it's own, and/or you take OPS into account on its own.

Then you factor in SB's as a separate plus or minus.

It has literally nothing to do with OBP and OPS so it's not taken into account until you take into account... STOLEN BASES.

The likelihood of BB and counting on the hitter behind you in is not something I would count on. I just gave a mathematical example why, so I won't waste more keystrokes explaining it to you.

I value Vogelbachs SLG not his walks.

That was my whole point originally was exactly that. Vogelbach helps you with slugging, Speedsters can help you by getting on base so there is a better chance that the singles or doubles by Santana and Vogelbach score runs. You have to assign some value to the speed these guys bring you.

No. I dont.

Because I would replace them with Nola's and anybody else who can play.

Having 9 Vogelbachs and Santanas in my lineup is going to score a lot more runs than if I sprinkled in some speedsters for whatever reason.

Vogelbach and Santana are already on 2B. They dont need to steal, plus, they drove in the guy who was on 2B ahead of him.

[Juliooooo]

No. I dont.

Because I would replace them with Nola's and anybody else who can play.

Having 9 Vogelbachs and Santanas in my lineup is going to score a lot more runs than if I sprinkled in some speedsters for whatever reason.

Vogelbach and Santana are already on 2B. They dont need to steal, plus, they drove in the guy who was on 2B ahead of him.