Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[D-train]

[D-train]

Same goes for Wong really, not a ton of excess value on his contract and they have internal options to replace him.

Which is weird considering they just exercised their club option on him. Maybe they are bringing him back specifically as trade bait...

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/349 ... -wong-2023

I think it's pretty universally accepted that Wong is at least worth his $10M. If they decide not to keep him, they wouldn't have trouble finding a trade partner for him. Same could be said for Flexen at $8M, even if I wouldn't expect much in return for him.

Which is why I think Wong for Flexen would make a nice swap.

I assume they need SPs more than INFers?

[bpj]

Which is weird considering they just exercised their club option on him. Maybe they are bringing him back specifically as trade bait...

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/349 ... -wong-2023

I think it's pretty universally accepted that Wong is at least worth his $10M. If they decide not to keep him, they wouldn't have trouble finding a trade partner for him. Same could be said for Flexen at $8M, even if I wouldn't expect much in return for him.

Which is why I think Wong for Flexen would make a nice swap.

I assume they need SPs more than INFers?

They have a great top of the rotation but could probably use a 4/5 type, although they do have some young starters that could take those roles.

This is what MLBtraderumors had to say about the Brewers and Wong-

Up the middle, Willy Adames has shortstop locked down but second base is a little less clear. The club has a $10MM club option over Kolten Wong’s services for 2023, which comes with a $2MM buyout. That net $8MM decision would normally be a very clear decision, with exercising it the obvious choice. However, given the potential payroll constraints and Wong’s unusually weak defensive year, it’s possible that the Brewers look to move on. Wong himself seemed to acknowledge all of this recently, realizing that it’s possible that he is replaced by prospect Brice Turang, who had a nice year in Triple-A. There’s also a couple of utility guys present, with Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau on the roster.

They certainly may prefer to pocket that money and trade him for a prospect instead of exchanging it for a 5th starter. If I was Dipoto I'd be asking if they're interested at least.

Given the costs, and the potential to add cheap bats at our other holes, I just much prefer Wong to the free agent shortstops.

[bpj]

One of the guys at MLBTR (in the Mariners Offseason Outlook chat) said he thinks Wong would be a bad fit for the Mariners because he's basically like JP.

I think that's a selling point to Dipoto.. but also, Wong being left handed makes him a perfect guy that Servais can play his matchups and alternate him and Dylan Moore at 2B.

[Vogelbomb]

If Divish thinks people expect Dipoto to sign a SS, then I'm not sure who he's been hanging around. There's hope that Dipoto will but I would say the expectation is that he'll do something more under the radar like trade for Espinal.

So if your argument is he'll do what's unexpected, then guess what, looks like he's going to sign a Trea Turner after all

[Sexymarinersfan]

If Divish thinks people expect Dipoto to sign a SS, then I'm not sure who he's been hanging around. There's hope that Dipoto will but I would say the expectation is that he'll do something more under the radar like trade for Espinal.

So if your argument is he'll do what's unexpected, then guess what, looks like he's going to sign a Trea Turner after all

Funny you should mention.

What a trade between the Blue Jays and Mariners might look like

When we last saw the Mariners and Blue Jays, it was Oct. 8 at the Rogers Centre, where Seattle pulled off a stunner, eliminating Toronto from the American League Wild Card Series.

The Mariners, down 8-1 after five innings, rallied for a 10-9 victory that stunned the sold-out crowd and sent Seattle to the AL Division Series against the Astros.

But that was last month. Now, the calendar has shifted and the focus for both teams is firmly on 2023, not 2022.

No hard feelings, right?

With that in mind, how about we 1977 expansion pals get together to make a deal to officially kick off what could be a very interesting offseason for both clubs?

For all their success in 2022, the Mariners and Blue Jays had their share of warts. There is no perfect team. Each team has a to-do list to attend to, and this is where we offer our help.

Our esteemed Blue Jays writer, Kaitlyn McGrath, and I put our heads together to concoct a trade that works for both clubs.

Dear readers: Please read that again. This is the first move of the winter we’re proposing. It’s not the only move.

So without further ado, here’s the deal we’re proposing with some context in terms of what each team is looking for this winter and why this particular deal might work. — Corey Brock

The deal
The Mariners trade right-handed pitchers Chris Flexen and Penn Murfee to the Jays for second baseman Santiago Espinal and right-handed pitcher Alejandro Melean.

Why should Seattle do this?
I think it’s abundantly clear what the Mariners need most this offseason: offense, and more of it.

Surely you haven’t forgotten about the 18 scoreless innings in the deciding game of the ALDS against the Astros, have you?

OK, that might be a little unfair (the Astros were very good), but the point stands: If the Mariners hope to win 90 games for a third consecutive season — feels weird to type that — they will need more production from the offense.

The good news is there are more than a few ways they can accomplish that goal this winter, and we’ll get into that more as we head deeper into the offseason.

For now, adding Espinal is a very nice starting point. — Brock

Why should Toronto do this?
One of the roster holes the Blue Jays need to fill is the mid-rotation job previously occupied by Ross Stripling, who stepped in as Hyun Jin Ryu’s replacement in June and became one of the team’s most consistent starters. Stripling is a free agent now and the timing couldn’t be better for him after a season where he set numerous career highs.

The Blue Jays could choose to bring him back, but in the starting pitching market, he stands out as a fit for a lot of clubs. Toronto may get outbid. To help fill out their starting rotation, they might be able to go the trade route instead by utilizing their surplus of position players.

The Blue Jays also need more help for their bullpen. Obviously, the last memory of Toronto’s bullpen against the Mariners wasn’t great, but it’s fair to say for most of the year, they were fine, with their ERA squarely in the middle of the pack in the AL. But fine isn’t good enough — especially when a team has championship aspirations like the Blue Jays. — Kaitlyn McGrath

Why this works for the Mariners
Let’s be honest: The Mariners have a type.

They go on and on about the virtues of controlling or dominating the strike zone and they’re not wrong for doing so, honestly. Offensively, this equates to more walks, fewer strikeouts. They like bat-to-ball guys (if they can get them). And they are big on run prevention.

Friends, Espinal would be a nice fit — and a nice start — to kick off this offseason. Let me tell you why.

Espinal is 27 but is coming off a 2.3 fWAR season. He can play shortstop and third base as well but the Mariners would slide him into second base and let him go. Espinal is a .280 hitter in just over 800 major-league plate appearances and a .286 hitter in the minors.

He has a 14 percent strikeout rate and an 8 percent walk rate for his career. And he is a very good defender wherever you put him. How good, you ask?

Espinal was plus-four in defensive runs saved this past season. Two years ago, he played third base for the Jays and was a plus-eight. Plus-eight is elite.

Is this the sexy move you were hoping for? No, probably not. Will it make the Mariners better in 2023? It should, though a lot of that depends on what else the team does. This is just a start.

What you’ve done by adding Espinal — who will likely make a shade over $2 million in 2023 — is add a steady bat toward the bottom of the order.

I think adding an everyday player you control for four more years is a good way to maximize Flexen’s value. Flexen will be a free agent after 2023, so adding Murfee, who had a breakout year in 2022, to the deal makes sense from Toronto’s end even if it leaves a hole in Seattle’s bullpen.

Flexen doesn’t throw particularly hard or strike out a ton of batters. But since returning to the majors in 2021 after he remade himself as a pitcher in South Korea, the 28-year-old right-hander has been consistent and durable as a mid-rotation arm, pitching to a 3.66 ERA in 64 appearances including 53 starts.

Flexen isn’t flashy, but the Blue Jays don’t need flash to replace Stripling. In fact, looking at Flexen’s Baseball Savant page, guess who is one of the pitchers listed among those most similar to him?

Stripling, of course.

They’re pitchers who rely on precise command and a tricky changeup to succeed. Like Stripling, Flexen has proven adept at swinging between the rotation and the bullpen, too. Flexen would give the Blue Jays a starter who they can trust to throw five to six innings every fifth day and keep them in games. And, should one of their pitching prospects emerge in the second half — ahem, Ricky Tiedemann, ahem — Flexen could slot into a bullpen role.

Finding Flexen: How scouting the KBO led the Mariners to sign the revamped starter

Flexen is also a bargain at $8 million in 2023. With the Blue Jays roster getting more expensive — their 2023 payroll is currently projected at more than $190 million, per Roster Resource — trading for Flexen could be a value play. He’ll likely be cheaper than Stripling and he’s a free agent after the season so it’s not a steep commitment, either. This wouldn’t have to be Toronto’s only move for a starter. Maybe they do take a run at Justin Verlander or someone at the top of the free-agent market. But Flexen gives them some reliability they were missing in 2022.

Murfee is coming off a career season, pitching to a 2.99 ERA in 64 appearances with a nearly 28 percent strikeout rate. He’s a late-bloomer, but thanks to his unique arm angle, a wipeout slider and excellent command, he was a key reason why the Mariners’ bullpen was one of the best in 2022. Does a 28-year-old reliever who only touches 89 mph with his fastball make me nervous? Definitely. But, the Blue Jays have Adam Cimber, who’s similar, and he makes it work.

Relievers are especially volatile, so this piece of the deal could backfire. But Murfee’s slider, which he uses half the time, held batters to a .125 batting average and .272 slugging percentage with a 32.4 percent whiff rate in 2022. It’s a real weapon that could inject some needed swing-and-miss into Toronto’s ‘pen. Murfee would come with plenty of team control, too, since he’s still in his pre-arbitration years. The Blue Jays would still need more help in their bullpen, of course, but Murfee could be another piece to that puzzle.

Moving on from Espinal is really tough to do. The 27-year-old was a feel-good story in 2022, putting together an excellent first half and getting named to his first All-Star team. His defence up the middle would be missed, as well. But, this might be the time to trade him at the height of his value. With Whit Merrifield, Cavan Biggio, Otto Lopez and the emergence of infield prospect Addison Barger, the Blue Jays have plenty of other utility options at their disposal.

[Vogelbomb]

Roster moves. Sadler coming off injury will hit FA. I guess M's have a lot of rule 5s to protect

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[Sexymarinersfan]

Mariners won't extend Haniger a Qualifying Offer, but are continuing to negotiate a contract with him.

[D-train]

If Divish thinks people expect Dipoto to sign a SS, then I'm not sure who he's been hanging around. There's hope that Dipoto will but I would say the expectation is that he'll do something more under the radar like trade for Espinal.

So if your argument is he'll do what's unexpected, then guess what, looks like he's going to sign a Trea Turner after all

I think a lot of people think he will sign one of the big four. These people are not bright.

[D-train]

Mariners won't extend Haniger a Qualifying Offer, but are continuing to negotiate a contract with him.

Hat in hand policy lives. lol