Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[D-train]

They aren't going to know who he is

[Big_Maple]

Interesting off season plan.

Not gonna say I hate it. Even though Yelich had 3 down years, he is in the running for NL comeback player of the year. But he's still a risk.

According to MLB Trade Calculator, we would be hugely overpaying because Yelich has negative trade value. But that's just an online tool, so who knows.

That said, this trade involves the faces of the franchise. It may take more than a 2-bit outfielder who has never realized his true potential, and a second tier MOR guy to pry them away. Even though the trade calculator has us overpaying with Kelenic and Miller, I think it's gonna take more than Miller or Woo. I think they're gonna want a Gilbert or Kirby to get this done. IMHO.

[D-train]

Interesting off season plan.

Not gonna say I hate it. Even though Yelich had 3 down years, he is in the running for NL comeback player of the year. But he's still a risk.

According to MLB Trade Calculator, we would be hugely overpaying because Yelich has negative trade value. But that's just an online tool, so who knows.

That said, this trade involves the faces of the franchise. It may take more than a 2-bit outfielder who has never realized his true potential, and a second tier MOR guy to pry them away. Even though the trade calculator has us overpaying with Kelenic and Miller, I think it's gonna take more than Miller or Woo. I think they're gonna want a Gilbert or Kirby to get this done. IMHO.

He is lowering the AAV to $20M so that reduces his negative value by $30M so that would make it about even I believe.

[Donn Beach]

They aren't going to know who he is

I know who he is, the average fan isn't going to know he was in the mariners organization. Don't think they are going to give a shit, a bullpen coach isn't as sexy as a late inning reliever.

[D-train]

You missed the sarcasm I guess....

[Donn Beach]

We always miss sarcasm

[D-train]

Hernandez's first year in Seattle was a very up-and-down affair that ended with good-not-great numbers of a 106 OPS+ and 26 homers, more akin to his 2019 than his very strong 2020-22 run. The Mariners have identified making more contact (they had the second-most strikeouts in baseball) as a priority, and Hernandez whiffed 211 times. This one could go either way, though the Mariners may also be looking to focus all their dollars on an Ohtani chase. It’s tricky, because Seattle may not want to extend the offer, but Hernandez might not take it anyway. Ultimately, given his relatively average season, we think they’ll find other ways to make contact and add power.

Prediction: Does not receive an offer.

A little over three hours to go. This would complete shock me given how much they love their draft picks. I can't believe they would think he would accept it.

[Seattle or Bust]

Hernandez's first year in Seattle was a very up-and-down affair that ended with good-not-great numbers of a 106 OPS+ and 26 homers, more akin to his 2019 than his very strong 2020-22 run. The Mariners have identified making more contact (they had the second-most strikeouts in baseball) as a priority, and Hernandez whiffed 211 times. This one could go either way, though the Mariners may also be looking to focus all their dollars on an Ohtani chase. It’s tricky, because Seattle may not want to extend the offer, but Hernandez might not take it anyway. Ultimately, given his relatively average season, we think they’ll find other ways to make contact and add power.

Prediction: Does not receive an offer.

A little over three hours to go. This would complete shock me given how much they love their draft picks. I can't believe they would think he would accept it.

I can.

$21 million for 1 year coming off a shit year? $21 million for a chance to prove himself and set up a big contract in '24?

He's like the 5th best OF in my eyes. If he gets a multi-year contract, it's going to be like $15 million AAV. So why turn down the extra $6 million now if you think you'll get the same offer or better next off season?

[Donn Beach]

It's a question of multi year contract vs single year. The security of a multi year contract is significant

[Seattle or Bust]

It's a question of multi year contract vs single year. The security of a multi year contract is significant

That's why Cody Bellinger accepted a 1-year prove it deal w. the Cubs instead of opting for a cheap multi-year deal and is now going to get like 6 years $150 million on the low end?