Seager Option

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D-train
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Re: Seager Option

Post by D-train » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:33 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:55 pm
D-train wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:36 pm
Wow. I wish we could get opponent OPS at T Mobile.
You can just look at our pitching splits. Our opponents were at a .684 OPS in Safeco and a .777 OPS on the road. Our offense was at .663 at home and .710 on the road so the park is actually harder on our opponents than it is on us comparatively speaking.

Also as pertaining to PBJ's point, our opponents hit 99 Home Runs in Safeco and 98 HR on the road so its not the long ball that is accounting for that OPS.
Duh!!! Thanks!

So any changes would impact our opponents as much or more as it would us.
dt

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Seager Option

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:59 pm

The powers that be apparently want T-Mobile to be a pitcher's park but make no effort to use that as a selling point to bring elite FA pitchers here. It is the essence of corporate dumbfuckery.

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D-train
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Re: Seager Option

Post by D-train » Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:09 am

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:59 pm
The powers that be apparently want T-Mobile to be a pitcher's park but make no effort to use that as a selling point to bring elite FA pitchers here. It is the essence of corporate dumbfuckery.
Maybe that's why Paxton and Juan Nicasio came here. :lol:
dt

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bpj
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Re: Seager Option

Post by bpj » Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:49 am

Balls over the fence aren't affected as much as balls that would be singles and doubles in other parks are. Just so happens to coincide with the replacement of the grass and dirt at Safeco in late 2017...

4 years of evidence at this point.

I think it's moved beyond a hypothesis to more of a working theory now. I'm convinced it's a grass problem. And maybe it's by design. We have 3 Gold Glove candidates on the infield now..

*side note- is Tyler Andersons OPS against really .807?

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Seager Option

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:30 am

*side note- is Tyler Andersons OPS against really .807?
It went up dramatically in his last 3 starts.

Captain 97
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Re: Seager Option

Post by Captain 97 » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:41 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:30 am
*side note- is Tyler Andersons OPS against really .807?
It went up dramatically in his last 3 starts.
Yeah his last 3 starts he pitched a combined 7-2/3 and gave up 10 singles, 1 double, 2 triples and 3 HR.
Overall he had a 4.81 ERA for the M's not as stellar as I thought. Those two starts against the Angels could have very well cost them the playoffs.

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bpj
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Re: Seager Option

Post by bpj » Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:03 am

bpj wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:30 pm
Wow, check their home/away OPS splits since the grass/dirt replacement. I'd venture to say it will not go back to normal next season.

2018-
H: .693 (26th)
A: .749 (8th)

2019-
H: .721 (24th)
A: .757 (13th)

2020:
H: .659 (30th)
A: .697 (20th)

2021-
H: .663 (30th)
A: .710 (17th)
To follow up on this old post:

2022-
H: .679 (24th)
A: .710 (12th)

And that's with Ty France and Mitch Haniger basically being the opposite of everybody else- heroes in T-Mobile and bums on the road:

France-
Home: .865
Away: .694

Haniger-
Home: .903
Away: .714

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bpj
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Re: Seager Option

Post by bpj » Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:20 am

2008:
Home OPS: .720 (26th)
Away OPS: .695 (26th)
+.025 at Home

2009:
H: .712 (29th)
A: .719 (18th)
-.007 at Home

2010-
H: .623 (30th)
A: .651 (29th)
-.028 at Home

2011-
H: .625 (30th)
A: .655 (30th)
-.030 at Home

2012-
H: .622 (30th)
A: .703 (17th)
-.075 at Home

THEY MOVE FENCES IN HERE BEFORE 2013 SEASON

2013-
H: .694 (25th)
A: .696 (17th)
-.002 at Home

2014-
H: .664 (27th)
A: .687 (17th)
-.021 at Home

2015-
H: .715 (21st)
A: .729 (7th)
-.014 at Home

2016-
H: .761 (11th)
A: .752 (7th)
+.009 at Home

2017-
H: .761 (16th)
A: .738 (14th)
+.023 at Home

THEY REPLACE THE GRASS HERE BEFORE THE 2018 SEASON

2018-
H: .693 (26th)
A: .749 (8th)
-.056 at Home

2019-
H: .721 (24th)
A: .757 (13th)
-.036 at Home

2020:
H: .659 (30th)
A: .697 (20th)
-.038 at Home

2021-
H: .663 (30th)
A: .710 (17th)
-.047 at Home

2022-
H: .679 (24th)
A: .710 (12th)
-.031 at Home

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bpj
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Re: Seager Option

Post by bpj » Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:35 am

For reference, the "terrible offense" that led to them moving the fences in over the 5 years before they were moved (2008-2012) averaged 23 OPS points lower at Home than on the Road. (pretty bad)

In the 5 years after the fences came in, but before they replaced the grass, the differences between the teams Home and Away OPS equal:

-.002
-.021
-.014
+.009
+.023
=-.007
/5 = an average difference of ~1 OPS point worse at Home than on the Road across those 5 years (not bad!)

Since the grass was changed out:

-.056
-.036
-.038
-.047
-.031
=-.208
/5
=-.042 lower OPS at Home than on the Road on average per year (really bad!)

So in the 5 years since the grass was changed the team has averaged a Home OPS on average 42 points lower than on the Road. That's huge.

To my knowledge, nothing else about the field has changed in that timeframe but the name.

Has to be the grass, imo.

Again, 2018-2022 (post-new-grass) their OPS at Home averages 42 points lower than on the Road. :shock:

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bpj
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Re: Seager Option

Post by bpj » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:34 pm

From 2008-2012 (pre-fence-move)

Team Home OPS: .661 (30th)
Team Away OPS: .685 (29th)

From 2013-2017 (after fences in, before new grass)

Team Home OPS: .719 (22nd)
Team Away OPS: .720 (10th)

From 2018-2022 (after new grass)

Team Home OPS: .687 (28th)
Team Away OPS: .730 (14th)


We now have worse overall negative effects than before moving in the fences.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=22,d

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