Who's off the board tally

[SeattleSportsRUs]

I don't get what's causing the home and road splits at SafeCo.

Do guys not see pitches as well at SafeCo?

Are guys routinely hitting 20-30 warning track shots per year that are doubles, triples or homers at other stadiums? And do they need to move the fences in again?

Is the length of the grass or the moisture in the grass causing that big of an issue?

I mean seriously, the heck was wrong with Kyle Seager at SafeCo?

[bpj]

Mariners rankings among 30 teams in OPS, homeruns, singles, etc.:

Overall:
OPS: .688 (27th)
HR: 199 (14th)
1B: 766 (30th)
2B: 233 (25th)
3B: 11 (30th)

Home:
OPS: .663 (30th)
HR: 94 (20th)
1B: 351 (30th)
2B: 100 (28th)
3B: 7 (29th)

Away:
OPS: .710 (17th)
HR: 105 (11th)
1B: 415 (16th)
2B: 133 (16th)
3B: 4 (28th)

Pause right there and you can see they're an average offense in Away games, as exhibited by their 95 wRC+ in Away games (15th ranked offense of 30), compared to their 91 wRC+ at Home (24th of 30).

Difference, or how they fared at Home compared to Away Overall ((Home-Away)/Home):
OPS: -7%
HR: -11.7%
1B: -18.2%
2B: -33%
3B: +42.8% (small sample size)

However it's coming it is because we get far fewer singles and doubles at home, and to a lesser extent we still get fewer homeruns at home.

[bpj]

2018-2021, after new grass

OVERALL:
wRC+: 97 (16th)
OPS: .713 (24th)
HR: 673 (17th)
1B: 2770 (25th)
2B: 831 (28th)
3B: 76 (18th)

HOME:
wRC+: 95 (23rd)
OPS: .689 (29th)
HR: 314 (22nd)
1B: 1303 (28th)
2B: 378 (29th)
3B: 31 (26th)

AWAY:
wRC+: 98 (12th)
OPS: .735 (14th)
HR: 360 (13th)
1B: 1467 (14th)
2B: 453 (19th)
3B: 45 (7th)

Again, average offense in Away games since 2018.

DIFFERENCE (how they perform at Home compared to Away games)
OPS: -6.7%
HR: -14.6%
1B: -12.7%
2B: -19.8%
3B: -45%

Leaking offense from everywhere in Seattle, not just "fewer homeruns at Home".

[bpj]

After moving in fences, before "new grass and dirt installed", 2013-2017:

HOME:
wRC+: 104 (10th)
OPS: .719 (22nd)
HR: 464 (7th)
1B: 2244 (18th)
2B: 602 (27th)
3B: 45 (25th)

AWAY:
wRC+: 96 (11th)
OPS: .720 (10th)
HR: 481 (3rd)
1B: 2323 (16th)
2B: 688 (17th)
3B: 60 (23rd)

DIFFERENCE:
OPS: 0%
HR: -3.6%
1B: -3.6%
2B: -14.3%
3B: -33%

The formula seems off, so the numbers are going to be slightly different when this is figured out, but this paints the picture with a broad enough stroke that maybe we can get a grasp on what's happening.

[bpj]

2008-2012
HOME:
wRC+: 88 (30th)
OPS: .661 (30th)
HR: 281 (28th)
1B: 2286 (20th)
2B: 604 (29th)
3B: 48 (27th)

AWAY:
wRC+: 83 (28th)
OPS: .685 (28th)
HR: 362 (20th)
1B: 2431 (13th)
2B: 682 (27th)
3B: 56 (26th)

_____________________________________________

2008-2012 Home vs. Away
OPS: -3.6% worse at Home
HR: -28.8%
1B: -1.9%
2B: -12.9%
3B: -16.7%

MOVED IN THE FENCES
2013-2017 Home vs. Away
OPS: 0%
HR: -3.6%
1B: -3.6%
2B: -14.3%
3B: -33%

RE-DID GRASS/DIRT
2018-2021 Home vs. Away
OPS: -6.7%
HR: -14.6%
1B: -12.7%
2B: -19.8%
3B: -45%

What the heck happened after 2017?

[Pharmabro]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderbo ... rk-factors

And I can't find it now but there was an average distance / fly ball that showed M's hitters had an average of more then 10 feet less per FB in Safeco vs road.

[Juliooooo]

Alright so Story or Chapman? Which are you picking for 3B? Are you more convinced that Story is not going to crumble after Coors, or that Chapman's last 2 years were the exception and that he'll return to being a productive hitter?

[bpj]

Alright so Story or Chapman? Which are you picking for 3B? Are you more convinced that Story is not going to crumble after Coors, or that Chapman's last 2 years were the exception and that he'll return to being a productive hitter?

I wouldn't bother with any question marks when there are better fits available, personally.

Ramirez, Olson.. go after the guys who aren't bounceback candidates.

We have depth galore to go after either of them, especially if we also trade for or sign a free agent SP.

Bryant and Chapman are "better than nothing" once the better players are off the board though. Replacements for Seager. Low bar. Don't solve the "impact bat" need, unless you're low-expectation-Shannon-Drayer.

Story would be an absolute disaster in Seattle given the $'s involved. A .725-.750 overall OPS bat once his Home park is T-Mobile. Javier Baez got 6/$140M. I wouldn't approach that for Story, especially to try and make that work at 2B/3B.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

Alright so Story or Chapman? Which are you picking for 3B? Are you more convinced that Story is not going to crumble after Coors, or that Chapman's last 2 years were the exception and that he'll return to being a productive hitter?

Neither.

Which is why I want Bryant or a trade for JRam.

[Juliooooo]

Alright so Story or Chapman? Which are you picking for 3B? Are you more convinced that Story is not going to crumble after Coors, or that Chapman's last 2 years were the exception and that he'll return to being a productive hitter?

Neither.

Which is why I want Bryant or a trade for JRam.

That wasn't the question