Official Hot Stove League Thread

[Donn Beach]

so Kershaw doesn't get a qualifying offer, thoughts?

[GL_Storm]

so Kershaw doesn't get a qualifying offer, thoughts?

He'll probably re-sign with the Dodgers on a 1 year.

[Donn Beach]

sure, unless someone goes after him

[bpj]

so Kershaw doesn't get a qualifying offer, thoughts?

Hard to commit dollars to a guy who's on the DL so much that I'm going to look up if he's Canadian.

[Donn Beach]

Seems a bit harsh for a guy that's pitched nearly 2500 innings in his career though he has spent a lot time on the DL. The thing is when he pitches he still is effective. Pitchers are all a roll of the dice

Kershaw, 33, this season pitched to a 3.55 ERA/115 ERA+ and a 6.86 K/BB ratio in 121 2/3 innings. The issue isn't really effectiveness -- Kershaw long ago proved capable of performing at an ace level in the face of velocity loss -- but rather it's health. Kershaw hasn't topped 200 innings in a season since 2015, and he's been on the IL eight times since the start of the 2016 season

[Sexymarinersfan]

Free Agent Predictions:

2022 Free Agent Predictions

Semien Mariners
Correa Tigers
C Seager Yankees
Story Rangers
Baez Cubs
Freeman Braves
K Seager BlueJays
Castellanos Giants or Tigers
Bryant Giants
Schwarber RedSox

[D-train]

Kiley McDaniel
ESPN MLB Insider
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Before we get into the full 2021-22 free-agent rankings of this MLB offseason, here is some important context for next year's projections:

I'm ranking players by the guaranteed money I think they'll get offered and, in all but a few cases, what I think they'll sign for. There are a few players who I think will turn down $50 million-ish guaranteed contracts for one-year, prove-it-again type deals.

The biggest point to consider here is the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1. I think at most, one or two of the potential nine-figure deals will be signed before that date. The biggest deals will hopefully be coming in January, but more likely February or March. Thanks to the new economic reality, these are even more shots in the dark than usual.

This list is incomplete, with non-tenders and some options decisions yet to come, and we don't know for sure about any of the potential posted players from Korea and Japan yet. These later additions normally don't amount to more than a couple of low-eight-figure deals, but those would appear on a top 50.

Scott Boras will in all likelihood be in the driver's seat once the new CBA is signed. Of the potential $50 million-plus types, he advises Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Carlos Rodon and Michael Conforto, who are all in my top 15 free agents. Everyone I spoke with expects none of them to sign before Dec. 1, and any surprise one-year deals have a real good shot at coming from this group in an unexpectedly tepid market.

The universal DH is seen as at least 90% likely to be coming in the new CBA, so this will help current and future DHs, along with older and/or mediocre defensive corner outfielders: Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia et al.

The pandemic gave owners an excuse to trim staff headcount and limit expenses both on and off the field. I've already heard firsthand accounts from multiple big-market clubs that said they are awash in cash from strong gates, and/or deep playoff runs. Competitive owners can't help themselves from spending the cash they have. Some nontraditional spenders (Detroit, Seattle) and teams that have lots of money coming off the books (San Francisco) are also ready to spend. Indications are that the top and middle parts of the market may be healthier than many are expecting; my feedback from clubside sources was to adjust up on my initial guesses.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Free Agent Predictions:

2022 Free Agent Predictions

Semien Mariners
Correa Tigers
C Seager Yankees
Story Rangers
Baez Cubs
Freeman Braves
K Seager BlueJays
Castellanos Giants or Tigers
Bryant Giants
Schwarber RedSox

That to me would be

BAE3259C-2C06-4A22-8CE0-DEBE1C16D078.png (300.37 KiB) Viewed 460 times

We need at least one more Schwarber isn’t a Borass client maybe we sign him before December

[D-train]

Boras doesn't always wait for the new year.

On December 2, 2019, third baseman Mike Moustakas signed a 4-year, $64 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds.[2]
On Monday, December 9, 2019, Boras negotiated what was at the time the largest contact for a pitcher in both total value and average annual value at $245 million over 7 years with the Washington Nationals for free agent Stephen Strasburg. The contract beat out David Price's $217 million contract in total value and Zack Greinke's $31.5 million per year contract in average annual value. The contract had a full no-trade clause and $80 million in deferred payments to be paid by 2029.[181]
Just a day later on December 10, 2019, Boras once again set records when he landed free agent Gerrit Cole a contract with the New York Yankees worth $324 million over 9 years. This contract became the largest ever given to a pitcher in terms of total salary and average annual value, at $36 million, beating out Stephen Strasburg, as well as the fourth largest contract in MLB history. The contract includes a full no-trade clause as well as a player option after the 2025 season.[182]
Just one day after that on December 11, Boras signed free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon to a 7-year, $245 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels. With the signing, Boras had signed his clients to $814 million in contracts in just three days.
On December 21, starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel was signed to the White Sox for 3-year and $55.5 million.[2]
Left-handed Korean starting pitcher Hyun-jin Ryu signed a 4-year, $80 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays on December 27, 2019.[183] With the signing, Boras's clients have signed contracts totaling more than $1 billion ($1,013,500,000) in three weeks for the month of December.[2]

[Donn Beach]

Arod signed on the 6th of December 2000...didn't see it up there, there is no particular reason to wait, other than to allow the market to develop. You don't wait just to wait, then the money would get spend elsewhere.