Where do we stand on Kelenic?

[GL_Storm]

Latest mailbag of the 15th largely devoted to JK, game of adjustments

How much concern is there that Kelenic is backsliding to the player he was last year? — @KaumansTroy


I don’t know if I’d use the word “concern” from the Mariners about Jarred Kelenic’s recent stretch. Maybe some slight unease about the swing-and-miss issues and lack of consistent production.

I think most people in the organization and around baseball figured there would be a period when the league would adjust to Kelenic’s hot start to the season, and he would need to readjust to the changes opponents made.

Over his past 11 games, he posted a .154/.267/.282 slash line with six hits in 45 plate appearances, including two doubles, a homer, three RBI, six walks, 19 strikeouts and a stolen base. But over that 11-game span, he hit 20 balls in play that had an 89.9-mph average exit velocity, a 40% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate. For the 2023 season, he has an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, a 10.1% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate.

During that 11-game stretch, he’s had a 55% ground-ball rate and pulled 60% of the balls in play. Neither is ideal for his swing and approach. Of the 183 pitches he saw, only 54 were a two-seam or four-seam fastballs. The rest were considered off-speed, including 63 sliders.

This isn’t a new development. Against those 54 fastballs, most of them at or above the top of the zone, Kelenic had a .083 batting average with just one single on five balls in play, 10 called strikes, 12 foul balls and six whiffs.

Really, it’s about pitch selection and finding hitter’s counts to do damage. Twice in Wednesday’s loss, Kelenic had a 2-1 count and took pitches that he thought were balls, only to see home-plate umpire Sean Barber incorrectly call them strikes. So instead of having a 3-1 count, Kelenic had a 2-2 count. Big deal?

Well in his career, Kelenic has had 121 plate appearances in which he had a 2-2 count; they’ve resulted in a .149/.284/.280 slash line with 26 hits, including nine doubles, a triple, four homers, 32 walks and 110 strikeouts. In 65 career plate appearances in which he worked a 3-1 count, Kelenic has a .150/.477/.400 slash line — yes, a .477 on-base percentage. He has six hits, including three homers, 25 walks and only 13 strikeouts.

The Mariners and Kelenic believe that the changes he’s made this past offseason allow for him to work back out of these sorts of slumps because he wants to use the entire field and is more capable of doing it.

There has been more open frustration following failed plate appearances from him reminiscent of years past. But he’s still only 23, and it’s not an uncommon reaction.

If this were to continue into the next 10-12 games, and if Kelenic really started to react negatively to the results, it would be a cause for concern.

. Have the Mariners lost their opportunity to trade Kelenic? Batting .189 in the last few weeks after he claims to have fixed himself doesn’t seem like he’s changed much. — @seattle_wayne


I think people who have followed Kelenic’s career closely would say he’s changed a lot. He wasn’t capable of having the hot start to the 2023 season with his old approach and swing. Over his first 52 games, he produced a .283/.340/.524 slash line, with 14 doubles, a triple, 10 homers, 26 RBI, 16 walks, 64 strikeouts and seven stolen bases. He’s never had a stretch of 50-plus games like that in his career. So that’s a change.

Also, Kelenic never proclaimed he was fixed. Nobody with the Mariners said he was fixed. They know too well that baseball doesn’t allow for such things, particularly for younger players. When you think you’ve fixed an issue to find success, MLB teams find a new weakness to exploit.

The adjustments are endless.

I don’t know that the Mariners were looking for opportunities to trade Kelenic once he got off to a hot start. They were open to listening to offers last season and even in the offseason. But multiple MLB sources said they would part with Kelenic in a trade package only if they were getting a position player back in return with multiple years of club control (e.g., Bryan Reynolds).

They wouldn’t sell low.

Realistically, he has more value to them as a player than as a trade chip. If he could produce somewhere near the level of the first two months, it would be more valuable than what he could get from a trade market that is low on sellers and filled with buyers. He has four-plus years of club control and won’t hit arbitration eligibility until 2026

Mailbag from where?

[D-train]

Divish does a mailbag every now and then.

[GL_Storm]

Divish does a mailbag every now and then.

When someone posts an article, or in this case a mailbag, I think it's reasonable to want to know where it's from.

[AZOldDawg]

I have never been a great JK fan due to his mentality but I will give him this: He plays hard.

[D-train]

Divish does a mailbag every now and then.

When someone posts an article, or in this case a mailbag, I think it's reasonable to want to know where it's from.

Who said it was unreasonable???

[Pharmabro]

Latest mailbag of the 15th largely devoted to JK, game of adjustments

How much concern is there that Kelenic is backsliding to the player he was last year? — @KaumansTroy


I don’t know if I’d use the word “concern” from the Mariners about Jarred Kelenic’s recent stretch. Maybe some slight unease about the swing-and-miss issues and lack of consistent production.

I think most people in the organization and around baseball figured there would be a period when the league would adjust to Kelenic’s hot start to the season, and he would need to readjust to the changes opponents made.

Over his past 11 games, he posted a .154/.267/.282 slash line with six hits in 45 plate appearances, including two doubles, a homer, three RBI, six walks, 19 strikeouts and a stolen base. But over that 11-game span, he hit 20 balls in play that had an 89.9-mph average exit velocity, a 40% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate. For the 2023 season, he has an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, a 10.1% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate.

During that 11-game stretch, he’s had a 55% ground-ball rate and pulled 60% of the balls in play. Neither is ideal for his swing and approach. Of the 183 pitches he saw, only 54 were a two-seam or four-seam fastballs. The rest were considered off-speed, including 63 sliders.

This isn’t a new development. Against those 54 fastballs, most of them at or above the top of the zone, Kelenic had a .083 batting average with just one single on five balls in play, 10 called strikes, 12 foul balls and six whiffs.

Really, it’s about pitch selection and finding hitter’s counts to do damage. Twice in Wednesday’s loss, Kelenic had a 2-1 count and took pitches that he thought were balls, only to see home-plate umpire Sean Barber incorrectly call them strikes. So instead of having a 3-1 count, Kelenic had a 2-2 count. Big deal?

Well in his career, Kelenic has had 121 plate appearances in which he had a 2-2 count; they’ve resulted in a .149/.284/.280 slash line with 26 hits, including nine doubles, a triple, four homers, 32 walks and 110 strikeouts. In 65 career plate appearances in which he worked a 3-1 count, Kelenic has a .150/.477/.400 slash line — yes, a .477 on-base percentage. He has six hits, including three homers, 25 walks and only 13 strikeouts.

The Mariners and Kelenic believe that the changes he’s made this past offseason allow for him to work back out of these sorts of slumps because he wants to use the entire field and is more capable of doing it.

There has been more open frustration following failed plate appearances from him reminiscent of years past. But he’s still only 23, and it’s not an uncommon reaction.

If this were to continue into the next 10-12 games, and if Kelenic really started to react negatively to the results, it would be a cause for concern.

. Have the Mariners lost their opportunity to trade Kelenic? Batting .189 in the last few weeks after he claims to have fixed himself doesn’t seem like he’s changed much. — @seattle_wayne


I think people who have followed Kelenic’s career closely would say he’s changed a lot. He wasn’t capable of having the hot start to the 2023 season with his old approach and swing. Over his first 52 games, he produced a .283/.340/.524 slash line, with 14 doubles, a triple, 10 homers, 26 RBI, 16 walks, 64 strikeouts and seven stolen bases. He’s never had a stretch of 50-plus games like that in his career. So that’s a change.

Also, Kelenic never proclaimed he was fixed. Nobody with the Mariners said he was fixed. They know too well that baseball doesn’t allow for such things, particularly for younger players. When you think you’ve fixed an issue to find success, MLB teams find a new weakness to exploit.

The adjustments are endless.

I don’t know that the Mariners were looking for opportunities to trade Kelenic once he got off to a hot start. They were open to listening to offers last season and even in the offseason. But multiple MLB sources said they would part with Kelenic in a trade package only if they were getting a position player back in return with multiple years of club control (e.g., Bryan Reynolds).

They wouldn’t sell low.

Realistically, he has more value to them as a player than as a trade chip. If he could produce somewhere near the level of the first two months, it would be more valuable than what he could get from a trade market that is low on sellers and filled with buyers. He has four-plus years of club control and won’t hit arbitration eligibility until 2026

Mailbag from where?

This is something I have been thinking about. It is staggering to suggest trades when even the very lasy team in a league is not sure to sell.

[D-train]

He started the season with a great 14 game stretch and well over a 1.000 OPS. In the past 58 games since he is at .224/.697.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Starting to get Smoak/Ackley vibes with Julio and Jarred. The former pair weren't nearly as talented, but in terms of what they are doing vs expectations there hasn't been much of a difference. Still early though, right?

[Michael K.]

Starting to get Smoak/Ackley vibes with Julio and Jarred. The former pair weren't nearly as talented, but in terms of what they are doing vs expectations there hasn't been much of a difference. Still early though, right?

Maybe every organization has these, and we are just too close to this one, but IMO? Ackley was Jeremy Reed 2.0. And how about the next great hitting catchers? You know? Montero and Clement!? Seems those guys showed great promise early, only to never be able to adapt to how the league adapted to them. I always had doubts about Lewis, since he won the rookie of the year on one good month of play, but offensively, Julio is starting to remind me of that. A guy you just no longer expect to get a hit. Again, not the same, because Julio had far more than one good month as a rookie, but the second year has been nothing short of an absolute collapse so far.

There is something about that M's jersey. Man, I still go back to the Jeff Cirillo acquisition. A gap to gap line drive hitter? In our park I figured he'd hit 40 doubles and 10 triples. The guy couldn't hit ANYTHING and had to go to a sports psychiatrist to deal with the pressure of playing in Seattle. Jesus, he'd have killed himself in New York.

As far as Kelenic goes? I don't see him every being more than a platoon guy. Just can't hit consistently to warrant playing every day on a good team. I bet he wishes he would have taken the money. I have read a lot this year about how he has changed, but have to wonder if his ego is still in the way. You have to have confidence to deal with the constant failure of this game. Hell, Ken Griffey Jr batted what, under .270 on his career and was one vote show of unanimous hall of fame on his first ballot? You better be able to deal with making an out over 7 times every 10 at bats. But I think Kelenic's ego is a problem, it's beyond confidence, it's arrogance. And from a guy who has never done it.

[Captain 97]

Griffey hit.284 for his career.