Offseason Plans

[Captain 97]

The team this year outperformed their stats to a level which we will not see again. Its not like you can just add a 5 WAR guy and assume they will win 95 games in 2022. They were about a 75 win team by bWAR so theoretically they need to add 15 WAR just to be a 90 win team on paper. They are also losing Seager so its more like 17 that they need to add. Ironically enough, Semien 7.1, Ramirez 6.7 and Schwarber 3.2 produced exactly 17 WAR this season. I would say if you got those three you would be a legitimate playoff contender but by no means a sure thing. Add in Scherzer and now you are talking a favorite to make the playoffs but then you are talking one major trade plus 80-90 Million per year on free agents. I don't think they will spend that much (at least not all in one year).

I think we will see a couple of big additions which will get them close and then the playoff fate will rest on whether or not some young guys take steps forward. Out of Gilbert/Kirby/Brash your going to have to have one of them step up and give you in the 3 WAR range. Ditto for the position players Kelenic/Julio/Raleigh. You are also going to need Lewis to return to form. Those guys were all non factors this year if you can get in the 8-9 WAR range from them then you only need to add 8-9 in Free agency to project out as a 90 win team.

[D-train]

The team this year outperformed their stats to a level which we will not see again. Its not like you can just add a 5 WAR guy and assume they will win 95 games in 2022. They were about a 75 win team by bWAR so theoretically they need to add 15 WAR just to be a 90 win team on paper. They are also losing Seager so its more like 17 that they need to add. Ironically enough, Semien 7.1, Ramirez 6.7 and Schwarber 3.2 produced exactly 17 WAR this season. I would say if you got those three you would be a legitimate playoff contender but by no means a sure thing. Add in Scherzer and now you are talking a favorite to make the playoffs but then you are talking one major trade plus 80-90 Million per year on free agents. I don't think they will spend that much (at least not all in one year).

I think we will see a couple of big additions which will get them close and then the playoff fate will rest on whether or not some young guys take steps forward. Out of Gilbert/Kirby/Brash your going to have to have one of them step up and give you in the 3 WAR range. Ditto for the position players Kelenic/Julio/Raleigh. You are also going to need Lewis to return to form. Those guys were all non factors this year if you can get in the 8-9 WAR range from them then you only need to add 8-9 in Free agency to project out as a 90 win team.

Agree with all that just noting that given our BP will likely be just as good next season with the addition of Giles and Munoz and of course we still have the MOY good chance we outperform Pythag and WAR again. Not 15 games but maybe 5-10.

[D-train]

Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d

[Captain 97]

Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d

I have always thought that JP was overrated defensively just with the eye test. He has good range but his arm is not very accurate. It seems like France and White Last year are always having to bail him out by picking it out of the dirt.

I am a big no on Story. Career OPS of .972 at home and .752 on the road. if he is a .752 OPS in an average Ballpark he would probably have a .720 OPS over a full season at Safeco.

[D-train]

Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d

I have always thought that JP was overrated defensively just with the eye test. He has good range but his arm is not very accurate. It seems like France and White Last year are always having to bail him out by picking it out of the dirt.

I am a big no on Story. Career OPS of .972 at home and .752 on the road. if he is a .752 OPS in an average Ballpark he would probably have a .720 OPS over a full season at Safeco.

Yep thus my Coors baby reference. btw should get an early indication from the A's if they are willing to part with Olson by their first move....even if its minor.

[D-train]

Maybe the M's will sign FA Kurt Suzuki just to keep the Japanese player streak going.

[Vogelbomb]

Shannon Drayer
@shannondrayer
We've just wrapped up a 35 min media session with Dipoto and Servais.

When asked if he has been given assurances he would be able to increase payroll significantly from where it was this year in order to be aggressive in the free agent market, Dipoto answered, "Yes."

Define significantly. A $25M 30% increase could be defined as significant but that won't get us jack shit.

Nobody would define 30 percent as significant. Maybe 60 percent. I would expect 60-80 percent increase if you want to talk about "significant."

[Vogelbomb]

Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d

Here's why I dislike hearing the WAR stat quoted versus, say, wRC+ or OPS+.

Story bWAR 4.2
Correa bWAR 7.2

Story OPS+ 103 (.801 ops)
Correa OPS+ 131 (.850 ops) 148 gms

for reference here, Bryce Harper bWAR 5.9 and a OPS+ 179 (1.044 OPS) in 141 gms

WAR is inconsistent. I mean give me an idea of why so much variation from one player to the next given such minor differences in ops (story to correa). And then how is a player with the ops+ of Harper, 1.3 WAR beneath a player in Correa who is nearly 50 points beneath is ops+??

Is defense coming into play? How are two essentially equal elite defensive SSs in Correa and Story differing by a full 3 WAR when OPS+ is barely .050 points??

Stop quoting WAR around here. I don't care about someone's WAR. I care about their OPS+, their wRC+, their obp. That's it

[ddraig]

Maybe the M's will sign FA Kurt Suzuki just to keep the Japanese player streak going.

Suzuki makes Gandalf look like a Spring Chicken!

[D-train]

Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d

Here's why I dislike hearing the WAR stat quoted versus, say, wRC+ or OPS+.

Story bWAR 4.2
Correa bWAR 7.2

Story OPS+ 103 (.801 ops)
Correa OPS+ 131 (.850 ops) 148 gms

for reference here, Bryce Harper bWAR 5.9 and a OPS+ 179 (1.044 OPS) in 141 gms

WAR is inconsistent. I mean give me an idea of why so much variation from one player to the next given such minor differences in ops (story to correa). And then how is a player with the ops+ of Harper, 1.3 WAR beneath a player in Correa who is nearly 50 points beneath is ops+??

Is defense coming into play? How are two essentially equal elite defensive SSs in Correa and Story differing by a full 3 WAR when OPS+ is barely .050 points??

Stop quoting WAR around here. I don't care about someone's WAR. I care about their OPS+, their wRC+, their obp. That's it

FG has Bryce higher than Correa. He is third vs. eighth but yeah Correa has significant value given he is a good defensive SS vs a not very good defensive OFer like Harper.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... 2021&ind=0

Correa OPS+ is significantly higher that Story's because Story is a Coors baby.

Yeah sorry not going to only focus on offensive numbers because you don't understand WAR.