Offseason Plans

Captain 97
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by Captain 97 » Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:34 pm

Vogelbomb wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:27 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:20 pm
Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d
Here's why I dislike hearing the WAR stat quoted versus, say, wRC+ or OPS+.

Story bWAR 4.2
Correa bWAR 7.2

Story OPS+ 103 (.801 ops)
Correa OPS+ 131 (.850 ops) 148 gms


for reference here, Bryce Harper bWAR 5.9 and a OPS+ 179 (1.044 OPS) in 141 gms

WAR is inconsistent. I mean give me an idea of why so much variation from one player to the next given such minor differences in ops (story to correa). And then how is a player with the ops+ of Harper, 1.3 WAR beneath a player in Correa who is nearly 50 points beneath is ops+??

Is defense coming into play? How are two essentially equal elite defensive SSs in Correa and Story differing by a full 3 WAR when OPS+ is barely .050 points??

Stop quoting WAR around here. I don't care about someone's WAR. I care about their OPS+, their wRC+, their obp. That's it
Huh? You realize that a 131 OPS + is significantly better than 103 right? and an .850 OPS is a lot better than an .801 as well. :?

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bpj
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by bpj » Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:02 am

Vogelbomb wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:27 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:20 pm
Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d
Here's why I dislike hearing the WAR stat quoted versus, say, wRC+ or OPS+.

Story bWAR 4.2
Correa bWAR 7.2

Story OPS+ 103 (.801 ops)
Correa OPS+ 131 (.850 ops) 148 gms

for reference here, Bryce Harper bWAR 5.9 and a OPS+ 179 (1.044 OPS) in 141 gms

WAR is inconsistent. I mean give me an idea of why so much variation from one player to the next given such minor differences in ops (story to correa). And then how is a player with the ops+ of Harper, 1.3 WAR beneath a player in Correa who is nearly 50 points beneath is ops+??

Is defense coming into play?
How are two essentially equal elite defensive SSs in Correa and Story differing by a full 3 WAR when OPS+ is barely .050 points??

Stop quoting WAR around here. I don't care about someone's WAR. I care about their OPS+, their wRC+, their obp. That's it
Yes, defense is included in WAR, which is why WAR isn't a simple reflection of how they've done at the plate. It's why a DH gets less than half the WAR of these shortstops even when they have equal offense.

WAR is definitely flawed bigly.

Vogelbomb
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by Vogelbomb » Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:11 am

Of course defense is in there, but my point is how much? I can't see the amount of defensive value being given. When the WAR number is shown there's no breakdown of the how and why told to you as an analyst coming there to evaluate a player. That's the problem.

Not to mention the discrepancy between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. Can either site tell you how they calculate their WAR numbers? Then c'mon and do it!

And finally, WAR is supposed to be "above replacement" so what is the "replacement" level barometer you are using? Certainly their is a differing value from SS to 2b to LF to CF to RF. Not every replacement player from one position to the next is going to perform the same.

Bryce's WAR should be compared to players like Kyle Tucker, Mitch Haniger and Alex Verdugo meaning the defensive element of his WAR should be factored in terms of his RF contributions not overall outs compared to every other fielder. Clearly players playing up the middle are going to do better in that regard and players like Bryce or Mitch Haniger should not be penalized because they don't take as many chances or get hit as many balls.

GL_Storm
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:37 am

Vogelbomb wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:27 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:20 pm
Check out SS D. Both Story (who I don't want due to Coors baby) and Correa are rated better than JP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=21,d
Here's why I dislike hearing the WAR stat quoted versus, say, wRC+ or OPS+.

Story bWAR 4.2
Correa bWAR 7.2

Story OPS+ 103 (.801 ops)
Correa OPS+ 131 (.850 ops) 148 gms

for reference here, Bryce Harper bWAR 5.9 and a OPS+ 179 (1.044 OPS) in 141 gms

WAR is inconsistent. I mean give me an idea of why so much variation from one player to the next given such minor differences in ops (story to correa). And then how is a player with the ops+ of Harper, 1.3 WAR beneath a player in Correa who is nearly 50 points beneath is ops+??

Is defense coming into play? How are two essentially equal elite defensive SSs in Correa and Story differing by a full 3 WAR when OPS+ is barely .050 points??

Stop quoting WAR around here. I don't care about someone's WAR. I care about their OPS+, their wRC+, their obp. That's it
There's a positional adjustment. So it's more than just how well you play your position, but which position you're playing.

Here's the Fangraphs article: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/ ... djustment/

Fangraphs and B-Ref do WAR a bit different so they come up with different values, but I think the basic idea of the positional adjustment is included in both.

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:10 am

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SeattleSportsRUs
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by SeattleSportsRUs » Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:30 am

Blue Jays tried to add JRam.

Our GM says that he "wants to add talent."

Oh to be a fan of a team that actually wants to win.

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bpj
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by bpj » Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:03 am

I'm giving Dipoto the full benefit of the doubt at this point. Trying to let bygones be bygones.

Wanted to save all your bullets for 2022? Fine.

But you'd better shoot those m'f'ers now.

And they better hit bigger trophies than Nori effin' Aoki coming off a concussion.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:36 am

SeattleSportsRUs wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:30 am
Blue Jays tried to add JRam.

Our GM says that he "wants to add talent."

Oh to be a fan of a team that actually wants to win.
They tried huh... That's great, that's worth a bucket of spit

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:11 am

Can you imagine what Toronto's lineup would've looked like with Ramirez in the middle of it? Geesh! :shock:

SeattleSportsRUs
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Re: Offseason Plans

Post by SeattleSportsRUs » Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:24 am

I just don't understand this idea moving Toro to 3B.

Is Toro magically going to hit .270/.360/.440 next year and develop a better arm?

How on earth can people not see that 3B is quite literally the biggest hole where we can make a major upgrade? I swear if JRam or another major 3B isn't playing for this team next year and a .700 OPS Toro is I will have lost a lot of faith in the direction of this team.

Toro a 2B and barely passable right now at that.

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