My Off Season Plan

[bpj]

We don't need power guys we need can get the F on base & Arraez does that. I'm not looking for power at all. You have Julio & Ty & Cal there's your power.

Aaron Judge led the majors in OBP. He was 2nd in the AL in batting average. His 1.111 OPS was 1st.

Joc Pederson's .353 OBP places him 30th in baseball. His .274 batting average was a tie for 34th. His .874 OPS is 11th.

Prior to injuring his groin, Tim Anderson was hitting .356/.393/.896.

Every player I have suggested hits for high avg, gets on base, and hits for power, except for Arraez.

You never say no to more power.

Not to mention, in reality, Julio and Cal could either or both fall victim to a sophomore slump and Ty's alleged power got us nowhere.

[Seattle or Bust]

We don't need power guys we need can get the F on base & Arraez does that. I'm not looking for power at all. You have Julio & Ty & Cal there's your power.

Aaron Judge led the majors in OBP. He was 2nd in the AL in batting average. His 1.111 OPS was 1st.

Joc Pederson's .353 OBP places him 30th in baseball. His .274 batting average was a tie for 34th. His .874 OPS is 11th.

Prior to injuring his groin, Tim Anderson was hitting .356/.393/.896.

Every player I have suggested hits for high avg, gets on base, and hits for power, except for Arraez.

You never say no to more power.

Not to mention, in reality, Julio and Cal could either or both fall victim to a sophomore slump and Ty's alleged power got us nowhere.

It's certainly possible.

I'd be more worried about Geno and Cal in this regard. Both high K guys with lower contact and OBP numbers.

Just fill the lineup with great bats. Simple as that.

[HawkandMariner88]

Aaron Judge led the majors in OBP. He was 2nd in the AL in batting average. His 1.111 OPS was 1st.

Joc Pederson's .353 OBP places him 30th in baseball. His .274 batting average was a tie for 34th. His .874 OPS is 11th.

Prior to injuring his groin, Tim Anderson was hitting .356/.393/.896.

Every player I have suggested hits for high avg, gets on base, and hits for power, except for Arraez.

You never say no to more power.

Not to mention, in reality, Julio and Cal could either or both fall victim to a sophomore slump and Ty's alleged power got us nowhere.

It's certainly possible.

I'd be more worried about Geno and Cal in this regard. Both high K guys with lower contact and OBP numbers.

Just fill the lineup with great bats. Simple as that.

Who's more attainable Anderson or Arraez? Either would obviously be an upgrade.

[bpj]

It's early in the offseason, but before knowing which teams are going to tear it down and which will build around their good players, this is what I would have as Plan A, considering that I don't think Dipoto wants to spend.

I don't expect Dipoto to be anywhere near Judge or the SS's.

He will continue with his miserly ways, because that's how he wants it, and he's probably not wrong given how those contracts end up- this may be the cheapest, best roster they could possibly put together imo-

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

We're in the same situation as what they needed to do the last couple seasons, they need to add at the top of the roster instead of the bottom so the guys we have now can be the depth instead of being the Plan A.

They can add 4 bats without even worrying about disrupting the roster too much, just replace Kelenic, Toro, Frazier and Torrens.

1) Replace Kelenic with Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds is what they hoped Kelenic was. Stash Kelenic in AAA if you want to keep him. (Kelenic 55 wRC+, Reynolds 124 wRC+)
2) Toro's at bats replaced by Dylan Moore/Sam Haggerty/Ty France (Toro 62 wRC+, others ~100 wRC+ conservatively)
3) Trade for Christian Walker, 1B, as a bonus bat. (France 127 wRC+, Walker 122 wRC+, this move is just about adding another good bat to the lineup, Walker happens to be cheap like Dipoto prefers)

Side note- Walker because the more expensive free agent options, Jose Abreu and Josh Bell had 15 and 17 Homeruns to Walker's 36.

4) Frazier gets replaced by Ty France and Dylan Moore (Frazier 81 wRC+, France 127 wRC+)
5) Torrens replaced by Tom Murphy. (Torrens 72 wRC+, Murphy 168 wRC+, can at least plan on 100)
6) Only leaves 1 Free Agent position player to sign, Joc Pederson

That's replacing 5 guys who had a cumulative wRC+ of 397 with replacements that had cumulative wRC+ of ~573, plus the addition of Joc Pederson.

Let Moore get his at bats as defensive replacement for France once we've gotten a lead, or as replacement for Crawford when we're facing a lefty that day. We have the type of pitching rotation that can live if we go with a bat-first player at one position.

New Lineup

Reynolds RF (124 wRC+)
Julio CF (146)
Pederson DH (144)
Suarez 3B (131)
Raleigh/Murphy C (121)
France/Moore 2B (127)
Walker 1B (122)
Winker/Moore LF (108/126)
Crawford/Moore SS (104/126)

Bench: Moore/Trammell or Haggerty/Murphy

Might be the cheapest, best roster they could pull off. That's a deep lineup with your 8/9 batters being 8% and 4% better than league average bats.

Walker, $4M
Reynolds $6.75M
Pederson assuming $15M/yr

That's 3 additions with OPS's of .804, .806, and .874 for less than half the cost of one of the SS's (Turner, .809 OPS / Bogaerts, .833 / Swanson, .776 / Correa, .833). THREE great hitters for what one SS would cost, and each of them are similar quality hitters to the SS's.

Probably have to use Hancock to get Reynolds, so we'll have Flexen or Marco in the #5 rotation spot. Trade the other.

Total 2023 Payroll (minus Flexen, plus new guys as listed): $131.25M

[HawkandMariner88]

It's early in the offseason, but before knowing which teams are going to tear it down and which will build around their good players, this is what I would have as Plan A, considering that I don't think Dipoto wants to spend.

I don't expect Dipoto to be anywhere near Judge or the SS's.

He will continue with his miserly ways, because that's how he wants it, and he's probably not wrong given how those contracts end up- this may be the cheapest, best roster they could possibly put together imo-

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

We're in the same situation as what they needed to do the last couple seasons, they need to add at the top of the roster instead of the bottom so the guys we have now can be the depth instead of being the Plan A.

They can add 4 bats without even worrying about disrupting the roster too much, just replace Kelenic, Toro, Frazier and Torrens.

1) Replace Kelenic with Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds is what they hoped Kelenic was. Stash Kelenic in AAA if you want to keep him. (Kelenic 55 wRC+, Reynolds 124 wRC+)
2) Toro's at bats replaced by Dylan Moore/Sam Haggerty/Ty France (Toro 62 wRC+, others ~100 wRC+ conservatively)
3) Trade for Christian Walker, 1B, as a bonus bat. (France 127 wRC+, Walker 122 wRC+, this move is just about adding another good bat to the lineup, Walker happens to be cheap like Dipoto prefers)

Side note- Walker because the more expensive free agent options, Jose Abreu and Josh Bell had 15 and 17 Homeruns to Walker's 36.

4) Frazier gets replaced by Ty France and Dylan Moore (Frazier 81 wRC+, France 127 wRC+)
5) Torrens replaced by Tom Murphy. (Torrens 72 wRC+, Murphy 168 wRC+, can at least plan on 100)
6) Only leaves 1 Free Agent position player to sign, Joc Pederson

That's replacing 5 guys who had a cumulative wRC+ of 397 with replacements that had cumulative wRC+ of ~573, plus the addition of Joc Pederson.

Let Moore get his at bats as defensive replacement for France once we've gotten a lead, or as replacement for Crawford when we're facing a lefty that day. We have the type of pitching rotation that can live if we go with a bat-first player at one position.

New Lineup

Reynolds RF (124 wRC+)
Julio CF (146)
Pederson DH (144)
Suarez 3B (131)
Raleigh/Murphy C (121)
France/Moore 2B (127)
Walker 1B (122)
Winker/Moore LF (108/126)
Crawford/Moore SS (104/126)

Bench: Moore/Trammell or Haggerty/Murphy

Might be the cheapest, best roster they could pull off. That's a deep lineup with your 8/9 batters being 8% and 4% better than league average bats.

Walker, $4M
Reynolds $6.75M
Pederson assuming $15M/yr

That's 3 additions with OPS's of .804, .806, and .874 for less than half the cost of one of the SS's (Turner, .809 OPS / Bogaerts, .833 / Swanson, .776 / Correa, .833). THREE great hitters for what one SS would cost, and each of them are similar quality hitters to the SS's.

Probably have to use Hancock to get Reynolds, so we'll have Flexen or Marco in the #5 rotation spot. Trade the other.

Total 2023 Payroll (minus Flexen, plus new guys as listed): $131.25M

Honestly would not hate that. Might substitute Abreu in there because of his consistency but overall not bad. I mean we do have depth so it's not the worst thing in the world. Could also substitute Happ in there as well. Would be a cheaper get in terms of prospects too I bet.

[bpj]

It's early in the offseason, but before knowing which teams are going to tear it down and which will build around their good players, this is what I would have as Plan A, considering that I don't think Dipoto wants to spend.

I don't expect Dipoto to be anywhere near Judge or the SS's.

He will continue with his miserly ways, because that's how he wants it, and he's probably not wrong given how those contracts end up- this may be the cheapest, best roster they could possibly put together imo-

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

We're in the same situation as what they needed to do the last couple seasons, they need to add at the top of the roster instead of the bottom so the guys we have now can be the depth instead of being the Plan A.

They can add 4 bats without even worrying about disrupting the roster too much, just replace Kelenic, Toro, Frazier and Torrens.

1) Replace Kelenic with Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds is what they hoped Kelenic was. Stash Kelenic in AAA if you want to keep him. (Kelenic 55 wRC+, Reynolds 124 wRC+)
2) Toro's at bats replaced by Dylan Moore/Sam Haggerty/Ty France (Toro 62 wRC+, others ~100 wRC+ conservatively)
3) Trade for Christian Walker, 1B, as a bonus bat. (France 127 wRC+, Walker 122 wRC+, this move is just about adding another good bat to the lineup, Walker happens to be cheap like Dipoto prefers)

Side note- Walker because the more expensive free agent options, Jose Abreu and Josh Bell had 15 and 17 Homeruns to Walker's 36.

4) Frazier gets replaced by Ty France and Dylan Moore (Frazier 81 wRC+, France 127 wRC+)
5) Torrens replaced by Tom Murphy. (Torrens 72 wRC+, Murphy 168 wRC+, can at least plan on 100)
6) Only leaves 1 Free Agent position player to sign, Joc Pederson

That's replacing 5 guys who had a cumulative wRC+ of 397 with replacements that had cumulative wRC+ of ~573, plus the addition of Joc Pederson.

Let Moore get his at bats as defensive replacement for France once we've gotten a lead, or as replacement for Crawford when we're facing a lefty that day. We have the type of pitching rotation that can live if we go with a bat-first player at one position.

New Lineup

Reynolds RF (124 wRC+)
Julio CF (146)
Pederson DH (144)
Suarez 3B (131)
Raleigh/Murphy C (121)
France/Moore 2B (127)
Walker 1B (122)
Winker/Moore LF (108/126)
Crawford/Moore SS (104/126)

Bench: Moore/Trammell or Haggerty/Murphy

Might be the cheapest, best roster they could pull off. That's a deep lineup with your 8/9 batters being 8% and 4% better than league average bats.

Walker, $4M
Reynolds $6.75M
Pederson assuming $15M/yr

That's 3 additions with OPS's of .804, .806, and .874 for less than half the cost of one of the SS's (Turner, .809 OPS / Bogaerts, .833 / Swanson, .776 / Correa, .833). THREE great hitters for what one SS would cost, and each of them are similar quality hitters to the SS's.

Probably have to use Hancock to get Reynolds, so we'll have Flexen or Marco in the #5 rotation spot. Trade the other.

Total 2023 Payroll (minus Flexen, plus new guys as listed): $131.25M

Honestly would not hate that. Might substitute Abreu in there because of his consistency but overall not bad. I mean we do have depth so it's not the worst thing in the world. Could also substitute Happ in there as well. Would be a cheaper get in terms of prospects too I bet.

Thank you, there's some merit to this approach.

Could easily substitute any name for Walker, Pederson or Reynolds. Plenty of good players available.

Link to the players in my plan:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=15,d

Walker, Reynolds, Pederson = 9.1 WAR in 2022 with pretty big upside going forward
Cost of about $25M

Compared to getting one 5 WAR SS for $25M who is replacing a guy who already puts up 2 WAR for a net of 3 WAR, it seems like good value.

[D-train]

Trade #1: Mariners send JP Crawford, Jarred Kelenic, Diego Castillo, and Cash to the White Sox for SS Tim Anderson and P Jake Diekman.

Why M's? Crawford was among the worst SS's in baseball for 5/6th's of 2022 season. He had a Ruthian type April for the M's but followed his usual trend where he goes on a tear for exactly one month and is mediocre to horrible for the other months. Crawford's D also regressed in '22, making him a liability at a position where most quality teams aren't lacking. Kelenic's name came up in many calls at the trade deadline and it's becoming clearer that he's just never going to develop as a Mariner. Yes, he's young... but he just went through ANOTHER 1 for 30 run and the M's are out of time. Castillo has never really found form as a Mariner, but he's a good reliever and again, a change of scenery might help. Anderson only has 1 year left of control but he would sure provide some impact at the position for the 1 year. Who knows, he might just sign an extension on arrival.

Why CWS? If they haven't paid Anderson now, it appears they're not going to. He's the face of their franchise and they've been hesitant to open up the checkbook for him... so? trade him. While Crawford struggled in '22, he's just 28 years old and joining a new organization w. new eyes on his swing could help him. He's a 3 WAR player when he's right and while he's not likely to ever become a star, he at least provides cheap stability at the position. The White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and are consistently thin in the OF... enter Kelenic who again, has to be intriguing as he's just 23 years old and the AAA numbers continue to be off the charts. It's a buy low on him that could work out in their favor. Castillo simply adds more depth to their bullpen. Diekman has been horrible with the White Sox, but he throws 96-98 from the left side and maybe the M's can work some magic.

Trade #2: Mariners send Taylor Dollard, Chris Flexen, Abraham Toro and Erik Swanson to the Twins for 2B Luis Arraez.

Why M's? The M's have Emerson Hancock closer to the bigs than Dollard and he projects as a higher ceiling starter. Flexen lost favor for some reason w. the M's front office and is due $8 million on a player option that was doubled by meeting inning requirements, they'll likely try to move on from him. Swanson is a great reliever, but you have to give up talent to get talent and the M's have a couple arms on the horizon that can slot into his role as more of a 5th-7th inning reliever. They just need to move on from Toro. Arraez put up 4 WAR this season for the Twins. He is one of the better contact and OBP guys in baseball sporting a career .314/.374/.410/.784 OPS. He would answer a serious question at the lead off position. If the M's are gonna trade some relievers, they have to get some back.

Why MN? Twins pitching finished 19th in ERA and were extremely top heavy. They had 3x starters who sported ERA's above 4.50. They also had multiple back end relievers who logged at least 30 innings of work with ERA's above 4.50. They have some of the worst farm system depth when it comes to pitching baseball. Dollard gives them a guy who could slot in their rotation by the middle of 2023. Flexen has an ERA around 3.80 in his last 2 seasons with the Mariners and he would slot in as a back end rotation guy that beats their current options. Swanson adds depth to a bullpen that really needs it. One might think that with Correa leaving that the Twins would be reluctant to trade another middle infielder. However, their top 2 prospects are shortstops and both are either MLB ready or right there. Not to mention Nick Gordon, a former top prospect and infielder, that they slotted in the outfield for now. Trading Arraez would hurt a bit, but it also would open up spaces for their young talent to work.

Free Agent Acquisition #1: Aaron Judge OF, 8 years, $280 million

Why? I'm not sure what I really need to explain here. The M's are missing a power bat in the middle of their lineup in the absolute worst of ways. He is the best power bat in baseball and he's the only player in baseball capable of hanging homer numbers from the steroid era. Not only that, but he has a career .284 batting average and career .394 OBP... elite, elite, elite. Want more? He's also happens to be a stellar defender. 2022 stats: .311/.425/.686/1.111. Oh... and 62 homers. People are worried that he'll regress as he ages... who cares if the M's have won a couple World Series by the time he's 36/37? I don't. I also think those worries are premature... he's a stellar athlete who doesn't look like he's gonna have fat man regression in him (Pujols, Cabrera...). Go get him.

Free Agent Acquisition #2: Joc Pederson DH, 2 years, $30 million.

Why? The M's need a DH. They need a lefty power bat. Pederson quietly put up one of the better seasons from a lefty hitter last season. He slashed .274/.353/.521/.874 with 23 dingers. Some notes: Pederson slashed for a 1.127 OPS in April, 1.036 OPS in August, and .967 September. If it weren't for .421 OPS July, he would have slashed somewhere around a .950 OPS for the year... again, elite, elite, elite . He's one of the quieter, quality hitters in baseball and it seems the Dodgers made a premature move getting rid of him after a bad 2020 Covid year.

Free Agent Acquisition #3: Some Reliever... Michael Fulmer, Matt Moore, Rafael Montero, Craig Kimbrel?

Why? Trade away some bullpen talent to get Anderson and Arraez... have to make it up.

The Lineup:

1. Luis Arraez 2B
2. Tim Anderson SS
3. Julio Rodriguez CF
4. Aaron Judge RF
5. Joc Pederson DH
6. Ty France 1B
7. Eugenio Suarez 3B
8. Cal Raleigh C
9. Jesse Winker/Sam Haggerty LF

Bench: Dylan Moore Util, Tom Murphy C and either: Taylor Trammell or Cade Marlow OF

The Staff:

1. Luis Castillo
2. Logan Gilbert
3. George Kirby
4. Robbie Ray
5. Emerson Hancock/Marco Gonzales

Bullpen:

9th: Andres Munoz
8th: Matt Brash, Paul Sewald, F/A Signing
7th: Casey Sadler, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa, Matt Boyd, Jake Diekman

Thanks for putting this together. Well thought out reasonable and bonus points for nice consistent formatting! Content like this is much appreciated.

I would just adjust your Twins trade. I don't want to give up that much SP depth and our second best reliever so I'm keeping Flexen and Swanson and donating Murfee and Winker instead. Winker gives the Twins a full time DH and replaces Arraez's 38 games there.

Here is your trade and my trade for comparisons sake. Toro has literally 0.0 value so including him or excluding him changes nothing.

w winker and murfee.png (24.81 KiB) Viewed 695 times

w swanson.png (24.87 KiB) Viewed 695 times

[D-train]

Unless we have some indication otherwise, the idea that the M's would go after Aaron Judge is completely unrealistic. I know a lot of guys here will be posting offseason plans and including Aaron Judge, but really what's the point? Personally, I don't think it's even a good idea. Nothing against the player, but that body isn't going to age well. I'll bet whoever signs him winds up paying a good chunk of that contract while he's on the injured list.

Nelson Cruz who likely weighed about 250-260 lbs (listed at 230lb NFW) put up a 1.031 OPS at age 38 and a .992 OPS at 39.

Sorry this notion that it is guaranteed that Judge breaks down early because he is big is based on nothing.

[D-train]

That's a good point Harmony.

Any of these guys could get to T-Mobile and die. Especially the SS's and middling OF'ers imo. Correa may have the power to play.

Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, Pederson, Nimmo, I think they'd get eaten alive by the lack of doubles and singles, not just the power. Especially Swanson. He looks Ike he wears skinny jeans.

Big risk spending $'s on average power.

He is by far my least fav top FA SS. He and his skinny jeans can stay east of the Mississippi or in the NL.

[D-train]

Exactly, they all have questions marks including Haniger.

Mitch's HR rate fell fairly significantly in 2022 to one HR per 22.7 PAs down from one HR per 17.5 PAs in 2021. Now there is a guy that could face accelerated age and injury related decline. Not touching him with anything but an 11 foot incentive laden pole.