The True Cost of Draft, Develop & Trade

[desbcoach]

And in 2021-2022 he followed it up by wasting $35M on Paxton, Montero, Giles, Frazier, Winker, Romo and White.

If 90% of his moves weren't terrible, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

But when we can point to only three or four good moves in 7 years when he's been the most active GM in baseball, it's a problem.

The reason the team is in the position it is in is because Jerry hit on guys like Julio, Cal, Gilbert and Kirby and because he struck it rich with some great reclamation projects in the bullpen. I give him props for that but they could have signed/drafted those guys without all of the rebuild garbage. All of the trades and salary dumping that is considered the heart of what a rebuild is all about has mostly just resulted in treading water. Literally every young prospect that he traded for as supposed major keys of the "rebuild" has bombed.

Yeah, I agree, that's pretty much what I'm trying to show in this post.

Nobody has a problem with the results of the draft and international signings. They definitely could have done worse. Other teams have probably done better. But, no complaints about their performance in those areas.

The clear problems have been the players that Dipoto has brought in and spent $180 million on that were terrible, while at the same time a few of the players he traded off for the underperformers went on to put up some fantastic numbers. Both of those have put the team in a weaker position. And here we are.

About where we were in 2018 in terms of wins, just with a lower payroll.

I disagree, we are way ahead of where we’re in 2018, better pitching staff locked up for next 5 years and better position -players overall with at least one superstar. Was there waste money and some bad trades made yes but we are still way better presently

[bpj]

The reason the team is in the position it is in is because Jerry hit on guys like Julio, Cal, Gilbert and Kirby and because he struck it rich with some great reclamation projects in the bullpen. I give him props for that but they could have signed/drafted those guys without all of the rebuild garbage. All of the trades and salary dumping that is considered the heart of what a rebuild is all about has mostly just resulted in treading water. Literally every young prospect that he traded for as supposed major keys of the "rebuild" has bombed.

Yeah, I agree, that's pretty much what I'm trying to show in this post.

Nobody has a problem with the results of the draft and international signings. They definitely could have done worse. Other teams have probably done better. But, no complaints about their performance in those areas.

The clear problems have been the players that Dipoto has brought in and spent $180 million on that were terrible, while at the same time a few of the players he traded off for the underperformers went on to put up some fantastic numbers. Both of those have put the team in a weaker position. And here we are.

About where we were in 2018 in terms of wins, just with a lower payroll.

I disagree, we are way ahead of where we’re in 2018, better pitching staff locked up for next 5 years and better position -players overall with at least one superstar. Was there waste money and some bad trades made yes but we are still way better presently

I suppose, although the 2018 team didn't look all that bad. Lineup was probably better. Rotation may have been a bit worse. Closer was definitely better.

Segura
Cano
Cruz
Seager
Haniger
Healy
Span
Gamel
Beckham
Vogelbach

Paxton
Leake
Marco
Felix
LeBlanc

Diaz

I'm more concerned about this year and next year than having anybody under long term control personally. Those 5 year contracts can look like Felix's in a hurry.

They just wanted to cut payroll.

According to Fangraphs:

2018 Offense: 19.1 WAR
2022 Offense: 22.9 WAR

2018 Pitching: 16.5 WAR
2022 Pitching: 13.8 WAR

I had it backwards I guess. Either way, aside from salary, pretty comparable team imo.

[Donn Beach]

The difference is the talent on the 2018 team had peaked, there are players today one would expect increased production. The issue is how much they should be augmenting those players with an increased payroll. My guess is they are prepared to increase spending, but at a slower rate than what would be hoped for here. Didn't dipoto make some sort of comment about pointing to like 2025-2026? I think he could have been referring to the budget forecast. I do believe they have budgets planned well into the future

[bpj]

The difference is the talent on the 2018 team had peaked, there are players today one would expect increased production. The issue is how much they should be augmenting those players with an increased payroll. My guess is they are prepared to increase spending, but at a slower rate than what would be hoped for here. Didn't dipoto make some sort of comment about pointing to like 2025-2026? I think he could have been referring to the budget forecast. I do believe they have budgets planned well into the future

Yeah, he pointed to 2026 as a payroll crest. Big whoop. He had pointed to 2021 as the year they would augment the roster in free agency, then that turned out to be code for bad relief pitchers.

They had "peaked"... except that most of those players continued being productive for years.

Not to mention they traded off Pablo Lopez, Freddy Peralta and Ryan Yarbrough who combined for 23.3 fWAR from 2018-2022.

Wouldn't have been so much of a peak if they didn't waste $180M on bad players from 2016-2022 while shipping off the guys who could have contributed through that timeframe in bad trades.

If there was a peak, it was caused by Dipoto.

[Donn Beach]

Sure, I think they have altered the plan a bit. I think it's more about sustainability these days, get away from the boom and bust cycle of aiming at windows and then blowing the team up. Probably interested in supplying a steady level of entertainment. What they are really is a television content provider

[bpj]

Sure, I think they have altered the plan a bit. I think it's more about sustainability these days, get away from the boom and bust cycle of aiming at windows and then blowing the team up. Probably interested in supplying a steady level of entertainment. What they are really is a television content provider

Yes, I agree. They've tightened spending on him.

And I think him wasting $180M throughout his tenure on these underperforming players is a big part of the reason why.

And the payroll may even end up lower if they trade Marco/Flexen.

[Donn Beach]

I don't think there is any "they" about it, it's not like they made him a president and then turned the screws on him, he's part of the club now. They are copacetic, it's his plan far as I'm concerned. He sold it to them. That's what he is supposed to do as a president, plan. The owners aren't presenting the president of baseball operations with a plan, it's his job to present it to them

[bpj]

I don't think there is any "they" about it, it's not like they made him a president and then turned the screws on him, he's part of the club now. They are copacetic, it's his plan far as I'm concerned. He sold it to them. That's what he is supposed to do as a president, plan

You can say they didn't turn the screws on him.

Yet that's exactly what happened.

We waited all offseason for them to add good free agents to augment the roster.

Your way assumes this was the plan all along, but it's obvious they've turned the screws.

My point just explains why, imo.

Sure, they're holding him to what he promised he could do. I get that as much as anybody. I pointed that out a few years ago when I said he wanted to put together the cheapest playoff team he possibly could.

But they've been nothing but big talk about how they'd pulll out all the stops when our "window opened". Well, the window's here and the screws are tight.

[Donn Beach]

Why have a plan to spend in the first place if they were unhappy with his spending seasons ago? And where was this obligation to spend on FAs? I don't know about, "pulling out all stops", show me where they said that. I remember talk of spending when the time was right and I think they feel they are doing it. I think dipoto felt he was able to add a pair of players early in the process that filled what he was basically looking for, there wasn't the need to sign a FA. Again I think it has been the plan ever since he began the "step back". Making him president showed their support for it. I think it's where they want to be basically. Have a budget ceiling of like $150 mil and are at around p130 mil at this point. Again, a steady rate of growth as opposed to pulling out the stops. What's a $130 mil payroll going to be in 2026 at a 17% growth rate? You're approaching $200 mil aren't you? This is the plan he sold them. It's all about planning, dipoto has a staff that spends it's time running numbers. The entire thing has been projected well into the future. I think they all feel it's working. Again, it's not about giving the president of baseball operations a plan, it's about following his plan. As long as he is president then I believe it's his plan

[bpj]

Yeah, ok, this was their plan all along.