2024 Prospects thread

[Donn Beach]

CBS sports

It's been more than two decades since a prep catcher selected in the first round had a good career behind the plate. Ford, believe it or not, looks to have a real chance to end the drought. He's a hyper-athletic backstop who has continued to improve behind the plate should have no trouble sticking there heading forward. On offense, he's shown a good feel for contact and the zone alike. Ford has also continued to leverage his raw power, pulling nearly half of his batted balls last season en route to 15 home runs in 118 games. Factor in his youth (he was several years younger than his competition), and there's more than enough reason to be optimistic about his future.

[Pharmabro]

My top 10:

1. Cole Young
2. Colt Emerson
3. Lazaro Montes
4. Gabriel Gonzales
5. Felnin Celstin
6. Harry Ford
7. Tyler Locklear
8. Jonatan Clase
9. Cole Phillips
10. Prelander Berroa

So, I have some guys here that might be surprising to see. #10. 1st Prelander, (BP) he was a position player converted to pitching than to BP he has a FB that top out at 100 and a good slider with a CU that is under development.
#9. Cole Phillips (SP, BP) probably has the best fastball in our system. He was going to be a 1st Rd. pick until he needed TJ in his senior year. He was a 2nd Rd. pick #56. He is a 6'3" 200# prep arm with a 70 grade FB 100+ peak MPH and a + slider. He is probably 3 years away as a starter but what if he was a BP arm? I think he could be up by as early as 2025.
#8 Clase OF, He had 79 SB and 56 XBH in just 129 games split between A+, and AA.
#7 Locklear 3B/1B I put him here because he is near MLB ready and has that 10+% walk rate and .200+ ISO, and is not completely a 1B/DH. He had
#6 Ford (C): Walk rate, speed, ISO, Arm, draft position, positional scarcity.
#5 Felnin SS He was billed as one of the top IFA's in years. He did not compete in 2023 so this is probably the highest possible ranking.
#4 GG: Arkabsas has a tough hitting environment it will be good to see him start there and improve on those handful of ABs
#3 Lazzaro is a really good hitter. And that size, the eye, the performance at age and level. My big concern here is the lack of position value and high K rate.
@2 Colt: I know it was just 24 games but .374 .496 .549 1.045. He didn't have the .200+ ISO profile I like but he did have 10 doubles to just 2 HR. I think he adds bulk and that evens out.
#1. Young. he had almost as many walks 88 as Ks 90! He went up to A+ about on his 20th burthday and hit to a .883 OPS.

[GL_Storm]

Ford's walk rate at A+ probably isn't sustainable, but I expect this is a skill that will be plus at every level he plays. What we're really looking for with Ford, in my opinion, is improvement in his batting average and K-rate. I'm not even remotely concerned about his power. The bat speed is elite and we've seen the raw power. The key to translating that raw power into game power is further progression in pure hitting skill, which really isn't bad for his age and level, but you'd still like to see some progress in that area over his next 500 plate appearances.

To go a little deeper on his hitting skills, at Everett, his slash line was .257/.410/.430, good for an .841 OPS. In terms of OPS, he was second among qualified players, which (to be fair) excludes a number of players that were promoted out of the league. But these are still pretty good numbers for the level and his age. I think most of those other players that were pushed through to AA were older than him by at least a year or two. He also struck out 109 times in 563 plate appearances for a 19.4% K-Rate, which is actually really good for that level. In fact, it's the second best K-Rate on the team behind Cole Young at 16.52% in 230 plate appearances.

But here's the thing, if you're walking as much as he is, then by definition you're eliminating an awful lot of bad pitches. And so what's left are some edge pitches and a lot of pretty good ones, probably. And these are the pitches that he's either whiffing at or not hitting as squarely, and I think that's probably why he hit .257 at Everett instead of .300, and why the Mariners didn't promote him in the last month of the season.

Again, the numbers overall actually are quite good. He was clearly one of the better players in the league last year. And the power is good. Power won't be a problem. But he does need to take another step or two as a hitter, which is what 2024 will be about for him.

[bpj]

Ford's walk rate at A+ probably isn't sustainable, but I expect this is a skill that will be plus at every level he plays. What we're really looking for with Ford, in my opinion, is improvement in his batting average and K-rate. I'm not even remotely concerned about his power. The bat speed is elite and we've seen the raw power. The key to translating that raw power into game power is further progression in pure hitting skill, which really isn't bad for his age and level, but you'd still like to see some progress in that area over his next 500 plate appearances.

To go a little deeper on his hitting skills, at Everett, his slash line was .257/.410/.430, good for an .841 OPS. In terms of OPS, he was second among qualified players, which (to be fair) excludes a number of players that were promoted out of the league. But these are still pretty good numbers for the level and his age. I think most of those other players that were pushed through to AA were older than him by at least a year or two. He also struck out 109 times in 563 plate appearances for a 19.4% K-Rate, which is actually really good for that level. In fact, it's the second best K-Rate on the team behind Cole Young at 16.52% in 230 plate appearances.

But here's the thing, if you're walking as much as he is, then by definition you're eliminating an awful lot of bad pitches. And so what's left are some edge pitches and a lot of pretty good ones, probably. And these are the pitches that he's either whiffing at or not hitting as squarely, and I think that's probably why he hit .257 at Everett instead of .300, and why the Mariners didn't promote him in the last month of the season.

Again, the numbers overall actually are quite good. He was clearly one of the better players in the league last year. And the power is good. Power won't be a problem. But he does need to take another step or two as a hitter, which is what 2024 will be about for him.

Good analysis Storm, hopefully Ford has a good 2024.

Only concerning thing is the batting average seems pretty low, but if he's young for the league maybe he improves that some.

[D-train]

Ford's walk rate at A+ probably isn't sustainable, but I expect this is a skill that will be plus at every level he plays. What we're really looking for with Ford, in my opinion, is improvement in his batting average and K-rate. I'm not even remotely concerned about his power. The bat speed is elite and we've seen the raw power. The key to translating that raw power into game power is further progression in pure hitting skill, which really isn't bad for his age and level, but you'd still like to see some progress in that area over his next 500 plate appearances.

To go a little deeper on his hitting skills, at Everett, his slash line was .257/.410/.430, good for an .841 OPS. In terms of OPS, he was second among qualified players, which (to be fair) excludes a number of players that were promoted out of the league. But these are still pretty good numbers for the level and his age. I think most of those other players that were pushed through to AA were older than him by at least a year or two. He also struck out 109 times in 563 plate appearances for a 19.4% K-Rate, which is actually really good for that level. In fact, it's the second best K-Rate on the team behind Cole Young at 16.52% in 230 plate appearances.

But here's the thing, if you're walking as much as he is, then by definition you're eliminating an awful lot of bad pitches. And so what's left are some edge pitches and a lot of pretty good ones, probably. And these are the pitches that he's either whiffing at or not hitting as squarely, and I think that's probably why he hit .257 at Everett instead of .300, and why the Mariners didn't promote him in the last month of the season.

Again, the numbers overall actually are quite good. He was clearly one of the better players in the league last year. And the power is good. Power won't be a problem. But he does need to take another step or two as a hitter, which is what 2024 will be about for him.

Fantastic assessment Gabe. Exactly what I was getting at.

This Forum will always be a place for objective assessment of player and prospects both good AND bad as opposed to Homer Fan Boy hide out where all that is allowed effusive praise just because a guy was a first round pick or is your hero and anyone that doesn't share your blind obsession is a Hater.

[D-train]

I am concerned about this trend. Not the AFL particularly because of the minute sample size but now he is going into the Most RH hitter unfriendly league in Pro ball so I fear it would continue:

Capture.JPG (41.29 KiB) Viewed 272 times

[D-train]

Two positives about the AFL is that his walk rate was through the roof vs. elite minor league pitching and he popped 3 HRs in just a few games.

[Juliooooo]

Ford's walk rate at A+ probably isn't sustainable, but I expect this is a skill that will be plus at every level he plays. What we're really looking for with Ford, in my opinion, is improvement in his batting average and K-rate. I'm not even remotely concerned about his power. The bat speed is elite and we've seen the raw power. The key to translating that raw power into game power is further progression in pure hitting skill, which really isn't bad for his age and level, but you'd still like to see some progress in that area over his next 500 plate appearances.

To go a little deeper on his hitting skills, at Everett, his slash line was .257/.410/.430, good for an .841 OPS. In terms of OPS, he was second among qualified players, which (to be fair) excludes a number of players that were promoted out of the league. But these are still pretty good numbers for the level and his age. I think most of those other players that were pushed through to AA were older than him by at least a year or two. He also struck out 109 times in 563 plate appearances for a 19.4% K-Rate, which is actually really good for that level. In fact, it's the second best K-Rate on the team behind Cole Young at 16.52% in 230 plate appearances.

But here's the thing, if you're walking as much as he is, then by definition you're eliminating an awful lot of bad pitches. And so what's left are some edge pitches and a lot of pretty good ones, probably. And these are the pitches that he's either whiffing at or not hitting as squarely, and I think that's probably why he hit .257 at Everett instead of .300, and why the Mariners didn't promote him in the last month of the season.

Again, the numbers overall actually are quite good. He was clearly one of the better players in the league last year. And the power is good. Power won't be a problem. But he does need to take another step or two as a hitter, which is what 2024 will be about for him.

What would be really interesting is to see data on how much of his strike outs are looking. I’m sure he’s watching some that are on the edge, and I also wonder if he’s getting more benefit from bad calls or getting screwed more. Are his strikeouts because he’s missing strikes that he’s swinging at, or because he is letting borderline pitches go and getting called out?

[D-train]

Ford's walk rate at A+ probably isn't sustainable, but I expect this is a skill that will be plus at every level he plays. What we're really looking for with Ford, in my opinion, is improvement in his batting average and K-rate. I'm not even remotely concerned about his power. The bat speed is elite and we've seen the raw power. The key to translating that raw power into game power is further progression in pure hitting skill, which really isn't bad for his age and level, but you'd still like to see some progress in that area over his next 500 plate appearances.

To go a little deeper on his hitting skills, at Everett, his slash line was .257/.410/.430, good for an .841 OPS. In terms of OPS, he was second among qualified players, which (to be fair) excludes a number of players that were promoted out of the league. But these are still pretty good numbers for the level and his age. I think most of those other players that were pushed through to AA were older than him by at least a year or two. He also struck out 109 times in 563 plate appearances for a 19.4% K-Rate, which is actually really good for that level. In fact, it's the second best K-Rate on the team behind Cole Young at 16.52% in 230 plate appearances.

But here's the thing, if you're walking as much as he is, then by definition you're eliminating an awful lot of bad pitches. And so what's left are some edge pitches and a lot of pretty good ones, probably. And these are the pitches that he's either whiffing at or not hitting as squarely, and I think that's probably why he hit .257 at Everett instead of .300, and why the Mariners didn't promote him in the last month of the season.

Again, the numbers overall actually are quite good. He was clearly one of the better players in the league last year. And the power is good. Power won't be a problem. But he does need to take another step or two as a hitter, which is what 2024 will be about for him.

What would be really interesting is to see data on how much of his strike outs are looking. I’m sure he’s watching some that are on the edge, and I also wonder if he’s getting more benefit from bad calls or getting screwed more. Are his strikeouts because he’s missing strikes that he’s swinging at, or because he is letting borderline pitches go and getting called out?

Good question but his K rate is pretty low. My question would be why isn't he getting more hits on balls he puts in play.

I have his BABIP at 99/329 .300 which is pretty good though.

[Juliooooo]

Ford's walk rate at A+ probably isn't sustainable, but I expect this is a skill that will be plus at every level he plays. What we're really looking for with Ford, in my opinion, is improvement in his batting average and K-rate. I'm not even remotely concerned about his power. The bat speed is elite and we've seen the raw power. The key to translating that raw power into game power is further progression in pure hitting skill, which really isn't bad for his age and level, but you'd still like to see some progress in that area over his next 500 plate appearances.

To go a little deeper on his hitting skills, at Everett, his slash line was .257/.410/.430, good for an .841 OPS. In terms of OPS, he was second among qualified players, which (to be fair) excludes a number of players that were promoted out of the league. But these are still pretty good numbers for the level and his age. I think most of those other players that were pushed through to AA were older than him by at least a year or two. He also struck out 109 times in 563 plate appearances for a 19.4% K-Rate, which is actually really good for that level. In fact, it's the second best K-Rate on the team behind Cole Young at 16.52% in 230 plate appearances.

But here's the thing, if you're walking as much as he is, then by definition you're eliminating an awful lot of bad pitches. And so what's left are some edge pitches and a lot of pretty good ones, probably. And these are the pitches that he's either whiffing at or not hitting as squarely, and I think that's probably why he hit .257 at Everett instead of .300, and why the Mariners didn't promote him in the last month of the season.

Again, the numbers overall actually are quite good. He was clearly one of the better players in the league last year. And the power is good. Power won't be a problem. But he does need to take another step or two as a hitter, which is what 2024 will be about for him.

What would be really interesting is to see data on how much of his strike outs are looking. I’m sure he’s watching some that are on the edge, and I also wonder if he’s getting more benefit from bad calls or getting screwed more. Are his strikeouts because he’s missing strikes that he’s swinging at, or because he is letting borderline pitches go and getting called out?

Good question but his K rate is pretty low. My question would be why isn't he getting more hits on balls he puts in play.

I have his BABIP at 99/329 .300 which is pretty good though.

We’re still only getting a partial print so to speak. We don’t know how much he’s swinging, how much swing and miss he has, if those are on fastballs or breaking pitches, how often he’s identifying good pitches to swing at, and what he’s doing with those.