The worst thing about the 54% model that nobody ever mentions

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D-train
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Re: The worst thing about the 54% model that nobody ever mentions

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:56 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:29 pm
Captain 97 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2025 3:33 am
I'd have no problem with 54% over 10 years. Generally when teams hit the 54% they play well consistently and pop every once in a while to get into the mid to upper 90's in wins. The Problem is that Dipotos pop IS 54% and then he thinks that means he has arrived. In reality he has been here 9 years and is at 51.6%. The M's were on the right track in 2022 and they needed to build and improve on that 90 win season and the playoff birth. Instead they felt that they had a arrived and took the foot of the peddle and then they regressed the following two seasons. Teams get to that 54% by striking while the Iron is hot and pushing their chips in. If the M's had don
e that and say improved to 93 Wins in 2023 and 95 wins in 2024 Jerry would be at 52.7 percent and we would probably all be thrilled.
That's it, I have tried repeatedly to point it out. The 54% deal is not the issue, the issue is they aren't living up to it. It cracks me up, it's comical. Complaining about their strategy endlessly when they aren't following it to begin with. Go look at the teams that won 54% of their games over a ten year period. This is not how they did it, believe me.

Winning percentage over the last ten years, Houston Astros: 57.4%, New York Yankees: 56.3%, Cleveland Guardians: 54.7%, St. Louis Cardinals: 54.2%, Tampa Bay Rays 53.8% Boston Red Sox 53.3%. That's the kind of company they would be in if they could manage to win 54% of their games over the next ten years, I wouldn't have a problem with it, that's being successful. Those teams weren't just trying to win 54% of their games, they were trying to win championships
Good point but the bigger point is that even if they did like they did from 1994-2003 it still doesn't mean they are going to go to a WS in the next decade as my tables point out. Team 2 went for it EVERY year which delivered some high 90s win teams and two WS titles. Even in the best years the M's were only barely over 90 which doesn't usually lead to WS wins.
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D-train
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Re: The worst thing about the 54% model that nobody ever mentions

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:02 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:29 pm
Captain 97 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2025 3:33 am
I'd have no problem with 54% over 10 years. Generally when teams hit the 54% they play well consistently and pop every once in a while to get into the mid to upper 90's in wins. The Problem is that Dipotos pop IS 54% and then he thinks that means he has arrived. In reality he has been here 9 years and is at 51.6%. The M's were on the right track in 2022 and they needed to build and improve on that 90 win season and the playoff birth. Instead they felt that they had a arrived and took the foot of the peddle and then they regressed the following two seasons. Teams get to that 54% by striking while the Iron is hot and pushing their chips in. If the M's had don
e that and say improved to 93 Wins in 2023 and 95 wins in 2024 Jerry would be at 52.7 percent and we would probably all be thrilled.
That's it, I have tried repeatedly to point it out. The 54% deal is not the issue, the issue is they aren't living up to it. It cracks me up, it's comical. Complaining about their strategy endlessly when they aren't following it to begin with. Go look at the teams that won 54% of their games over a ten year period. This is not how they did it, believe me.

Winning percentage over the last ten years, Houston Astros: 57.4%, New York Yankees: 56.3%, Cleveland Guardians: 54.7%, St. Louis Cardinals: 54.2%, Tampa Bay Rays 53.8% Boston Red Sox 53.3%. That's the kind of company they would be in if they could manage to win 54% of their games over the next ten years, I wouldn't have a problem with it, that's being successful. Those teams weren't just trying to win 54% of their games, they were trying to win championships
Exactly! That is what is so Ass backward about their philosophy! You don't try to win 54%, you try to win Championships and the residual is a winning % of 54%+, not the other way around. Just like their other philosophy to grow non baseball revenues with BS gimmicks and restaurants and parking lots. You don't generate inane extraneous revenues which allows you to spend on payroll. You INVEST in payroll to drive revenues.
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Donn Beach
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Re: The worst thing about the 54% model that nobody ever mentions

Post by Donn Beach » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:38 pm

He didn't say they were trying to win 54% of their games
“If you go back and you look, in a decade those teams that win 54 percent of the time always wind up in the postseason. And they more often than not wind up in the World Series. So, there’s your bigger-picture process,” Dipoto said. “Nobody wants to hear the goal this year is, ‘We’re going to win 54 percent of the time.’ Because sometimes 54 percent is — one year, you’re going to win 60 percent, another year you’re going to win 50 percent. It’s whatever it is. But over time, that type of mindset gets you there
And you do want to grow non baseball revenue, Cohen is developing a multi billion dollar casino next to Citi field. That's his ulterior motive for developing the Mets. The rangers are putting together an entertainment land development adjacent to their stadium
Last edited by Donn Beach on Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The worst thing about the 54% model that nobody ever mentions

Post by AZOldDawg » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:49 pm

D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:53 pm
AZOldDawg wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:07 pm
I believe our chances, being a mid market team, are reliant upon windows. We have the opportunity to take advantage of a nice one right now but Abbot and Costello refuse to spend to win. I wouldn’t be surprised if they spin it as “We’re just waiting for the farm to develop “. That coupled with hitters apparently not wanting to play here should send our young studs packing as soon as their contracts allow. Unfortunately our generally soft fan base will continue to enable this behavior. For us hard core fans it’s a Bill Rafferty “dagger to the heart”
Fyi if you combine Portland and Seattle we are the fourth biggest market in the country so we should stop parroting Stanton's propaganda. And that doesn't even count the other 3 states in the PNW which are small but all have huge M's fans including those on this forum.
you just had to add insult to injury 😂. How about we start the JD&JS “Drawn and quartered” Alliance

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D-train
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Re: The worst thing about the 54% model that nobody ever mentions

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 05, 2025 6:47 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:38 pm
He didn't say they were trying to win 54% of their games
“If you go back and you look, in a decade those teams that win 54 percent of the time always wind up in the postseason. And they more often than not wind up in the World Series. So, there’s your bigger-picture process,” Dipoto said. “Nobody wants to hear the goal this year is, ‘We’re going to win 54 percent of the time.’ Because sometimes 54 percent is — one year, you’re going to win 60 percent, another year you’re going to win 50 percent. It’s whatever it is. But over time, that type of mindset gets you there
And you do want to grow non baseball revenue, Cohen is developing a multi billion dollar casino next to Citi field. That's his ulterior motive for developing the Mets. The rangers are putting together an entertainment land development adjacent to their stadium
Well if they have determined the ROI is higher for non baseball revenues which is quite possible then we are F-d. There are orgs out that would look at an ROI of 11% for non baseball investments and 9% and say, ya know what how cool would to be to win a WS and bring the fanbase and city and region together in an awesome unified celebration. Let's bump up the baseball ROI 3 basis points to 12% to account for good will and invest the $25M of discretionary funding in payroll instead of inane circus atmosphere Savanah Banana BS. I am sure Stanton vetoes that notion.
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Donn Beach
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Re: The worst thing about the 54% model that nobody ever mentions

Post by Donn Beach » Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:33 am

That literally be robbing Peter to pay Paul. The point of the restaurant investment would be to take advantage of a successful baseball team, no team no restaurant. The restaurant should be a vote of confidence in the future of the team. The point is to make TMobile a destination activity. Bring in fans from Montana and Portland, get as much of their dough as possible. The whole thing should have a synergy, not be competing against each other for investment. They may be dumb but I don't know about being that dumb

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