Mariner Talk Chat Forum

Pacing well below, but does appear to have spiked, what's your latest prediction?

bpj wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:29 am

Pacing well below, but does appear to have spiked, what's your latest prediction?

I have two major fears. The death rate and the escalation of the the growth rate of new cases.
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It would be great if there were enough tests so we could have a better idea what the numbers even mean.

If people with symptoms are the ones mainly getting the tests, those are some skewed numbers and doesn't do anything to prevent non-symptomatic carriers from pawing everything at the local Walmart.

Everytime I think of an idea for better handling something like this in the future, the first step is "test everyone we can."

That still needs to happen. Here in BC, where the active cases may have peaked, we've still only tested about 50K people out of over 5M An antibody test would be useful too, so that we could see who has fought off the virus and is not in much danger. I don't see this coming only in the near future, so I expect that restrictions and depredations shall continue for a while.
Me, I'm okay....retired and my income might dip a bit from investments, but I have food, shelter and healthcare easily covered. I really feel for those that are not so fortunate.
Meanwhile, I see that MIchigan has passed up California, and I'm watching Florida and Louisiana making a solid run at Massachusetts. It's not a race you want to be winning. I am tracking Canada, the U.S., BC and couple of states in a spreadsheet. i had a bit of jolt, updating some numbers, and casaully noting that a few hundred more people had just died. It is almost had a video game feel to it.

from a CNN article on testing...a virus is not alive

"The virus must travel," Landt said, explaining whether the virus kills the host, or the host's immune system kill the virus, either way, the virus will need to find another person to infect to stay alive. "If you reduce your contact to other people, the virus can no longer travel ... One infected will infect one or two other people, so it's like an atomic bomb, it's an exponential curve," he said

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia ... index.html

Yesterday we had an all time high of 38k new cases. Today with just 36 minutes left before the cut off time we are only at 26k.

My model had a peak of 37k new cases today and 357k total cases. We are "only" at 303k total cases right now. If this is the start of absolute number of new cases per day trending down we are in business.

D-train wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:29 pm

Yesterday we had an all time high of 38k new cases. Today with just 36 minutes left before the cut off time we are only at 26k.

My model had a peak of 37k new cases today and 357k total cases. We are "only" at 303k total cases right now. If this is the start of absolute number of new cases per day trending down we are in business.

And my golf course will open next week! Just being hopeful... bought a Callaway Epic Flash driver last night, online. And I will wipe it down with hand sanitizer before using it.

Yesterday day was the first day new cases exceeded my forecast but today was well below again.

Hopefully both those lines continue downward...