2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

[D-train]

The fact that this team committed to an unproven rookie with the head scratching contract that they did, doesn’t give me a lot of confidence going forward and it is obvious they let him get exposed. I get there was no where to send a struggling rookie, but that didn’t help his learning curve

Totally agree. Tacoma intersquad games might have been just about as good as real AAA given it would have been 100% about development in a less formal atmosphere. He would have been there if not for the contract. I guarantee it. Mallex got sent there for hitting about as bad as White.

[Petert]

Cross-referencing this particular topic to ISLTM’s “Lindor” post, which seems to interleave here.

Regarding Bauer: If he’s willing to go to two years on a FA deal, I say go to the wall for it. If he’s intransigent and will only look at 1-year deals, I’d opine passing.

My reasoning: A free agent has to *want* to play with a prospective suitor’s team. Three things factor into that: a) The contract value and terms; b) The prospects of the player doing well AND the team being in post-season play; c) Quality of Life for self and family. I’d support the contention that those factors are also weighted in descending order. The fact that he lives off-season in Maple Valley maybe gives the Ms a leg up on c). T-Mobile is a pitcher's park, so there's a plus there, but the potential of the team being in post-season is a crapshoot. There are other teams whose prospects of post-season are stronger. The value of a) is only as good as its ability to better competing offers.

If we sign him for one year, the risk of losing him after that term is greater. If he has a great year for us, but it doesn’t lead to post-season, then someone with better chances and more money can lure him away. If it DOES lead to the post-season, there is still the chance that we could be outbid for his services in 2022. Altogether, the odds don’t look any more than even there at retaining him.

If he’s willing to go to 2 years, that changes to a better set of odds for both, him and the team. Firstly, the team will likely have a stronger chance at the post-season in 2022, based on key/core player development on the Ms in 2021. We lock him into that year as a key TOR contributor, and both sides have a better chance to realize what they want, and perhaps it leads to an extension. Most of the $$ it would take for the second year could be looked at as a sunk cost, since we’d probably be looking at a similar TOR on the market for 2022. So, whether it’s Bauer, or Eduardo Rodriguez, or PTBNL, attractive money still has to be spent.

The only downsides are a) injury/surgery in a first-year-of two scenario, particularly TJ, where the Ms are committed to a payout (admittedly around 30% of contract with insurance covering the rest) for uncertain, if any, return in that second year. In a one-year deal, the Ms lessen their financial and performance loss in that scenario; and, b) committing money on a two-year (or more) contract having a possible impact on another high-profile FA signing for 2022.

So, regarding Bauer, I say 2 years, or pass.

Regarding Lindor: I’d say ‘pass’.

My reasoning: Trading for a 'blue chip' like Lindor is going to demand ‘blue chip’ in return. In my mind, this is Kelenic or Lewis. It’s not a scenario where ‘quantity’ gets you ‘quality’, unless that ‘quantity’ consists of multiple high-potential or risk-acceptable prospects wrapped around one or the other blue chip. I'd venture that a White/Raleigh/Kirby-level pitching prospect/blue chip player package would likely be highly competitive to other team offerings.

I also have to go back to my point of a FA *wanting* to play in a prospective city, and the accompanying a), b) and c) factors listed. I don’t think Seattle is a compelling enough place for a Lindor to stay more than he has to. It’s not a top-tier market, has an extreme pitcher’s park for a home field, has no championship team history cachet, and any speculation about post-season prospects (in comparison to some other teams) is just speculation, no matter how strong the team looks on paper. What it has right now is money, and ‘great team potential’, all the more so, perhaps, after his addition. But I don’t think that’s enough to keep him. I see him in either LA, or an East Coast team, one with a strong cadre of Latin players.

So, the argument I have against trading for him is that we risk giving up too much (if my talent assessment is enough to get him) for the very real risk of too little (one year service time on the Ms) in return.

I would rather us focus on getting a starting pitcher (say Bauer on 2yr, or Ray, or Wood), invest a bit in the bullpen, and wait until fall of 2021 to make a play for Corey Seager (barring him signing an extension). I'd argue we have a much better chance of signing him because of the familial connection (granted that might mean retaining Kyle on a lesser-value contract as a PT player).

(I know, I could have said this in 20 words or less. Mea Culpa.)

[D-train]

Great contribution, Peter. Much appreciated. Are you traveling to "ManHattan" soon. I guess its not quite cocktail hour there......

[Petert]

The fog is burning off, and the sun is coming out. The warmth probably leads me to having a 'Jocelyn' on the deck before dinner. This is a fir-infused vodka, fir bitters, fir brandy, St. Germain concoction I created, served very cold, and named after my niece, who is my only other family member out here.

Manhattans I tend to do in cloudy weather here. Rye is a nice warmer-upper.

[D-train]

The fog is burning off, and the sun is coming out. The warmth probably leads me to having a 'Jocelyn' on the deck before dinner. This is a fir-infused vodka, fir bitters, fir brandy, St. Germain concoction I created, served very cold, and named after my niece, who is my only other family member out here.

Manhattans I tend to do in cloudy weather here. Rye is a nice warmer-upper.

Lovely, enjoy my friend.

[bpj]

Just browsing through the guys I think Dipoto could look at this offseason based on where their teams are at in terms of contention, a couple stand out so far-

Joe Musgrove SP - Pirates
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/joe-m ... position=P

Dylan Bundy SP - Angels
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan ... position=P

Lance Lynn SP - Rangers
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lance ... position=P

Jacob deGrom SP - Mets
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jacob ... position=P

Jose Cisneros RP - Tigers
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose- ... position=P

One thing thats pretty eye popping is while Gerritt Cole has been worth 1.4 WAR this season, Trevor Bauer was tipping the scales at 2.5.

I could see them adding a LF/1B/DH type if they believe they can contend in 2021. They need some form of White insurance.

Michael Conforto - Mets
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/micha ... osition=OF

[Petert]

Just browsing through the guys I think Dipoto could look at this offseason based on where their teams are at in terms of contention, a couple stand out so far-

Joe Musgrove SP - Pirates
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/joe-m ... position=P

Dylan Bundy SP - Angels
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan ... position=P

Lance Lynn SP - Rangers
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lance ... position=P

Jacob deGrom SP - Mets
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jacob ... position=P

Jose Cisneros RP - Tigers
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose- ... position=P

One thing thats pretty eye popping is while Gerritt Cole has been worth 1.4 WAR this season, Trevor Bauer was tipping the scales at 2.5.

I could see them adding a LF/1B/DH type if they believe they can contend in 2021. They need some form of White insurance.

Michael Conforto - Mets
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/micha ... osition=OF

I like the idea of chasing Musgrove or Bundy, if it looks like going after Bauer becomes moot either because of disinterest on Bauer's behalf, or complacency on DiPoto's. Lynn, I think is getting up there, and being locked into a favorable contract with Texas, you think they'd want to hold onto him under those terms unless bowled over by an offer. Cisnero is a little on the older side as well, although his arm, not having the 1500+ innings of work that Lynn's has undergone, is probably in a more youthful condition.

(I may have mentioned it somewhere else, but if we can't get Bauer, a combination signing of either Robbie Ray or Alex Wood, along with Taijuan Walker is interesting to me, although there's probably a snowball's chance in hell of it happening.)

Conforto, being a local boy as well, would be an attractive target. The Mets, though, are transferring to new ownership. I feel they are going to want to preserve their better assets in a combined effort to field a very competitive team, and in no small way, placate the fan base (Conforto being a fan favorite, and just maybe would not want to see him go anywhere, least of all us, in light of their soreness over the Cano/Diaz deal). I think they'll re-sign him, and look to add to their team via free agency. For the same reason, I don't think DeGrom is going anywhere, being signed through 2023 (I think).

It's a ways off, but the one guy from the Mets who does intrigue me is Noah Syndergaard. He'll miss most, if not all, of next season because of TJ, by the end of which time his contract is up. Depending on how Mets front office views pursuing him (or not), he could be an interesting flyer candidate for the 21-22 season.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

My 3 cents worth about Bauer is next year is one year to soon. Add in the fact that Bauer hates baseball bullshit you know the kind Seattle excels at and I find it highly unlikely he comes to Mariner land with The marshmallow that manages our team, get rid of Servix and you might stand a chance if you offer him north of $24 M.

[Petert]

My 3 cents worth about Bauer is next year is one year to soon. Add in the fact that Bauer hates baseball bullshit you know the kind Seattle excels at and I find it highly unlikely he comes to Mariner land with The marshmallow that manages our team, get rid of Servix and you might stand a chance if you offer him north of $24 M.

That was my point earlier about a player 'wanting to play' for a prospective team and city, for various reasons. Seattle may have a certain rep among players for certain aspects of its team makeup (manager, etc.) but the ballpark is a pitcher's park, and I would think the team is also being looked at as on the upward swing. And after all "(Enough) Money hath charms to soothe the savage breast...", or some such thing.

I'm curious as to why you think it's a year too early ? Because Bauer is looking at one-year contracts ?

[bpj]

I'm curious also, as I think we could be in the playoffs now had they added last offseason.

Even adding Zach Wheeler and bullpen help last offseason would have done the trick.

And now there aren't (m)any black holes on offense going forward..