D-trains WAR and win projections

[Captain 97]

I don't know that there is necessarily a flaw in the system. Any predictive system is going to have outliers that don't fit the bulk of data set. The 2021 M's are a massive outlier. They out performed their run differential by more than any team since 1905. its not reasonable to expect that WAR would be able to predict that. Their WAR was right in line with their Pythagorean 75.3 wins vs. 76 wins. I guess if you could go back and show that all of the teams that out performed their Pythagorean had stellar bullpens you might be able to make some adjustments and improve things slightly but I doubt it.

[D-train]

Toronto had a great offense huge + RD and underperformed their Pythag massively because of a bad pen. I think there is something to it.

[Captain 97]

Toronto had a great offense huge + RD and underperformed their Pythag massively because of a bad pen. I think there is something to it.

Their fWAR was 44.7 which projects to 92 wins. they won 91 so their WAR seems to be pretty accurate.

[Captain 97]

bWAR had them at 52.6 which projects to 97 wins so that is closer to their Pytagorean.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

The Mariners had the best bullpen in the league (along with a bad lineup) one season when Zduriencik was the GM, but i don't recall them exceeding their expected win total that season. I could be wrong, will look it up when i have time.

[D-train]

Pretty much the same deal in 2018

Record: 89-73-0, Finished 3rd in AL_West (Schedule and Results)

Manager: Scott Servais (89-73)

General Manager: Jerry Dipoto (Executive VP & GM, Baseball Operations)

Pythagorean W-L: 77-85, 677 Runs, 711 Runs Allowed

After that season JD decided to blow it up. 3 years later he saved the owners a couple hundred million dollars and still has not made the playoffs......

[Sibelius Hindemith]

The Mariners had the best bullpen in the league (along with a bad lineup) one season when Zduriencik was the GM, but i don't recall them exceeding their expected win total that season. I could be wrong, will look it up when i have time.

I think it was 2014. They won 87 with pythag 91.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2014.shtml

[D-train]

Good memory they had a great pen that year. Just noticed Carson Smith and recalled when everyone freaked out when we traded him to Boston. He pitched 22 innings in three seasons for them and has been out of baseball since 2018. lol

[D-train]

I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5
JK 1.7
8.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7
Evan White, 1B 1.3
Ty France, IF 3.5
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1
12.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8
Luis Torrens 1.2
3.0

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6
Team Wins: 92.2

Wow! I thought I would be at like 77 wins. Where am I being too optimistic? Maybe France? Other than him I don't think any of my individual WARs are crazy. Let me know if so.

So they have 11 WAR for position players and 14 for pitchers and I have 24.2 for position players and 20.4 for pitchers. So I am projecting 19.6 more WAR/wins. 92.2 vs. 72.6.

I was off by 2.2 Wins and they were off by 17.4 wins.

[Captain 97]

Yeah you were closer in wins but not because your WAR predictions were better. It was because the M's wins drastically over performed their WAR.

Not sure who "They" is but they actually nailed the WAR.

The M's had 11.5 fWAR from the position players and 14.3 fWAR from the pitchers.