GL_Storm wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:29 am
If Detroit deals him, which they should, Javier Baez will be an albatross to whichever team takes that contract. He's the type of player second division teams sign when they're desperate to prove to their fans that they're serious about winning.
Right now, we're reeling from having run straight into Yordan Alvarez, the monster that haunts pitcher's dreams. The answer isn't to bring in some overrated strikeout lord that can't take a walk and then be burdened with that salary for the next five years while the player slowly declines from plus to average to bad and then finally gets released with a year and a half left on his deal. That's not a smart move.
This is not to say that I know what the smart moves are. Trading for Ian Happ might be a good one. I also wonder how the Cubs are feeling about Seiya Suzuki. I think getting at least one elite reliever would make sense. Ideally, several bullpen upgrades would happen. Look for the teams that are in limbo right now, like both Chicago teams, Minnesota, Milwaukee, KC, maybe Tampa Bay.
I'd love to see them sign Josh Bell but the one thing that worries me about that is the general lack of enthusiasm for the player, despite pretty good numbers in 2021 and 2022. Washington basically gave him away as a sweetener in the Juan Soto deal and I just wonder what the issue there is.
GL: this was an awesome post. I read it. Had a beer or three and thought about it. And after a heady buzz I concluded that you make some great points. But here’s what I came up with:
Alvarez is a unicorn. So is Judge. And so is JRod. He’s going to be balls out scary in a year or two. But Alvarez is unattainable, and there’s no way we are going to be competitive for Judge. But we’ve got JRod. Those guys are top tier talent, and there’s maybe 10 guys in both leagues in that category, none of whom are going to be suiting up in Mariners uniforms.
That leaves us with a wider field of second tier guys. Baez is in that group. So is Suzuki and Happ and Bell and Correa and Turner and a bunch of other names bandied around this board over the last few months. But you’ll find just as many people enthusiastic about each of them as you’ll find expressing the concerns you just mentioned. The reason is they’re not unicorns. They’re skills aren’t stratospheric, they age, they decline and they will want long, expensive contracts because they’re almost top tier. Every one is a calculated risk. They could have phenomenal seasons and they could negative WAR seasons. But unless we can offload Winker and Marco JK and JP for Alvarez (which is as likely as monkeys flying out of my ass) then we have to consider second tier guys to replace our clunkers.
I think the proposal bpj made is as good as any other. Is it perfect? Of course not. Baez could come to Seattle and suck ass. Or he could give us 3 or 4 seasons of plus WAR and then limp through his last year or two. Would I be happy with a similar deal for Suzuki or Happ or a host of other second tier guys? Yeah. They aren’t the sure bets that an Alvarez or a Judge will give you, but they’re attainable and they’re worth the risk because they have generally good track records.
Second tier guys are going to demand long contracts, and their most productive years should always be their first few years. But everyone declines with age - even unicorns. But you’ve got to ante up to stay in the game. I’d take 5 years of Baez over another year of Mitch or another few years of Winker any day if the week and twice in Sundays.
I’d love to see some of the more savvy pundits on the board (yourself included, GL) offer up alternative trade proposals for similar returns. I admire the thought that so many of you put into these trade proposals and FA suggestions, and I think bpj’s proposal has some grist.
