I think we are good at 2B for 2024

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bpj
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by bpj » Wed Sep 20, 2023 5:32 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 5:24 pm
seattlefan-daBronx wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 5:13 pm
To be a winner we cannot continue with the power outage that is 1B and 3B imho.
I can live with Geno for another year.
Trade Ty France please!
I've said it before and I will say it again - go ALL IN on Matt Chapman. Yes, he's a smidge over 30, but he is still the best overall defensive 3B in the game, and he's pretty solid offensively. He has more than double the WAR of Geno.

I don't know what to do with Geno - maybe he becomes INF UTIL and/or DH...maybe he can be traded (though unlikely with his contract). But I would love to see Chapman at the hot corner at T-Mobile.

And yes, D-Train, I know we are stuck with Geno. But a guy can dream, can't he?
I don't have anything against 30 year olds for the record!

Just saying that we need the 40 HR type 1B, imo, and France has never put up a season like that, and it's unlikely it would start at ago 30.

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D-train
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by D-train » Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:07 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 5:24 pm
seattlefan-daBronx wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 5:13 pm
To be a winner we cannot continue with the power outage that is 1B and 3B imho.
I can live with Geno for another year.
Trade Ty France please!
I've said it before and I will say it again - go ALL IN on Matt Chapman. Yes, he's a smidge over 30, but he is still the best overall defensive 3B in the game, and he's pretty solid offensively. He has more than double the WAR of Geno.

I don't know what to do with Geno - maybe he becomes INF UTIL and/or DH...maybe he can be traded (though unlikely with his contract). But I would love to see Chapman at the hot corner at T-Mobile.

And yes, D-Train, I know we are stuck with Geno. But a guy can dream, can't he?
Yes you can dream and you will wake up and Geno will be starring at you smiling saying "Good Vibes Only".... :)
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by Donn Beach » Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:28 pm

D-train wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:52 pm
bpj wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:35 pm
Taking a look at how these guys have done since the start of 2022, second base is the least of our problems besides CF.

Both Dylan Moore and Jose Caballero have been better players than JP Crawford according to WAR/600.

Dylan has been worth 2.5 WAR in 403 plate appearances.
JP has been worth 6.5 WAR in 1193 plate appearances.
Cabby has been worth 2.2 WAR in 271 plate appearances.

Dylan has a higher OPS (.746) since the beginning of 2022 than JP (.743) or France (.737), and just behind Geno (.751) and Teo (.760).

Mike Ford has the third highest OPS (.780) in that time, behind only Tom Murphy and Julio.

It's crazy to me to see how they play Ty, Geno and Teo every day, but they hardly use Dylan Moore or Mike Ford.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1
People say that the part timers wouldn't be able to sustain there WAR/600 rates for a full season. I call bullshit. Far more likely that given hitting is so much about timing that they might do even better. Ford is on record saying that very thing.
They might do better, they might do worse. I don't really think WAR projects that way. It gives you an idea of the value of the period it covers in relation to an entire season.

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bpj
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by bpj » Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:45 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:28 pm
D-train wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:52 pm
bpj wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:35 pm
Taking a look at how these guys have done since the start of 2022, second base is the least of our problems besides CF.

Both Dylan Moore and Jose Caballero have been better players than JP Crawford according to WAR/600.

Dylan has been worth 2.5 WAR in 403 plate appearances.
JP has been worth 6.5 WAR in 1193 plate appearances.
Cabby has been worth 2.2 WAR in 271 plate appearances.

Dylan has a higher OPS (.746) since the beginning of 2022 than JP (.743) or France (.737), and just behind Geno (.751) and Teo (.760).

Mike Ford has the third highest OPS (.780) in that time, behind only Tom Murphy and Julio.

It's crazy to me to see how they play Ty, Geno and Teo every day, but they hardly use Dylan Moore or Mike Ford.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1
People say that the part timers wouldn't be able to sustain there WAR/600 rates for a full season. I call bullshit. Far more likely that given hitting is so much about timing that they might do even better. Ford is on record saying that very thing.
They might do better, they might do worse. I don't really think WAR projects that way. It gives you an idea of the value of the period it covers in relation to an entire season.
That's exactly how it projects.

One can argue that the results would turn out differently given more or less playing time, but the numbers are what they are.

WAR/600 simply extrapolates on what is known.

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bpj
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by bpj » Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:42 am

They should trade Geno.

Some team would eat his contract up, he's not overpaid for his upside.

They're better off letting Moore, Caballero, Rojas, and the Bliss kid have those 700 plate appearances imo.

Geno has 2.8 WAR in 649 plate appearances.

Caballero has 2.2 in 271 PA's.
Moore has 0.4 in 148
Rojas has 1.0 in 106

That's a total of 3.6 WAR in 525 plate appearances for those three guys.

In terms of WAR/600, Geno put up WAR at a rate of 2.59 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

The three guys above together accumulated WAR at a rate of 4.11 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

And they'd save $11M by trading him off.

HawkandMariner88
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by HawkandMariner88 » Thu Sep 21, 2023 5:03 am

I'd give Bliss a long look. Kids looking very good.

harmony
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by harmony » Thu Sep 21, 2023 12:19 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:42 am
They should trade Geno.

Some team would eat his contract up, he's not overpaid for his upside.

They're better off letting Moore, Caballero, Rojas, and the Bliss kid have those 700 plate appearances imo.

Geno has 2.8 WAR in 649 plate appearances.

Caballero has 2.2 in 271 PA's.
Moore has 0.4 in 148
Rojas has 1.0 in 106

That's a total of 3.6 WAR in 525 plate appearances for those three guys.

In terms of WAR/600, Geno put up WAR at a rate of 2.59 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

The three guys above together accumulated WAR at a rate of 4.11 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

And they'd save $11M by trading him off.
Anyone can make projections. 😁

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bpj
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by bpj » Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:49 pm

harmony wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 12:19 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:42 am
They should trade Geno.

Some team would eat his contract up, he's not overpaid for his upside.

They're better off letting Moore, Caballero, Rojas, and the Bliss kid have those 700 plate appearances imo.

Geno has 2.8 WAR in 649 plate appearances.

Caballero has 2.2 in 271 PA's.
Moore has 0.4 in 148
Rojas has 1.0 in 106

That's a total of 3.6 WAR in 525 plate appearances for those three guys.

In terms of WAR/600, Geno put up WAR at a rate of 2.59 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

The three guys above together accumulated WAR at a rate of 4.11 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

And they'd save $11M by trading him off.
Anyone can make projections. 😁
Do you understand the differences between extrapolation based on actual data and baseball projections?

I showed the rate at which they accumulated WAR.

I didn't guess a rate at which they will perform, I showed the rate at which they did perform.

harmony
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Location: Portland OR

Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by harmony » Thu Sep 21, 2023 7:26 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:49 pm
harmony wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 12:19 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:42 am
They should trade Geno.

Some team would eat his contract up, he's not overpaid for his upside.

They're better off letting Moore, Caballero, Rojas, and the Bliss kid have those 700 plate appearances imo.

Geno has 2.8 WAR in 649 plate appearances.

Caballero has 2.2 in 271 PA's.
Moore has 0.4 in 148
Rojas has 1.0 in 106

That's a total of 3.6 WAR in 525 plate appearances for those three guys.

In terms of WAR/600, Geno put up WAR at a rate of 2.59 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

The three guys above together accumulated WAR at a rate of 4.11 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

And they'd save $11M by trading him off.
Anyone can make projections. 😁
Do you understand the differences between extrapolation based on actual data and baseball projections?

I showed the rate at which they accumulated WAR.

I didn't guess a rate at which they will perform, I showed the rate at which they did perform.
A commendable sophomoric projection, based on small cherry-picked samples, overlooking age progression/regression, among other variables.

But commendable nonetheless.

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bpj
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by bpj » Thu Sep 21, 2023 8:17 pm

harmony wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 7:26 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:49 pm
harmony wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 12:19 pm

Anyone can make projections. 😁
Do you understand the differences between extrapolation based on actual data and baseball projections?

I showed the rate at which they accumulated WAR.

I didn't guess a rate at which they will perform, I showed the rate at which they did perform.
A commendable sophomoric projection, based on small cherry-picked samples, overlooking age progression/regression, among other variables.

But commendable nonetheless.
Please do tell us what I'm wrong about.

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