SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

[bpj]

I have written both drayer and divish in the last couple months of the season.

I agree, the topic sounds ridiculous until you dive into the numbers and I don't think my email captured their attention enough to get them to read that far.

[Donn Beach]

You feel you have deduced it from home and away splits, I just think it be obvious with how the field played, again if Safeco turf played so slow it was the antithesis of artificial turf it would be obvious to the players that played it. Its not about players complaining, but it would seem something they would have an opinion about. It would have a reputation of being an extreme playing surface. Bring it to Divish's attention, it would seem worthy of an article of true

It wouldn't necessarily be obvious. Just a slight increase in the rate of deceleration of balls on the turf here vs elsewhere might result in cut-off rates by outfielders on batted balls that are greater enough to reduce doubles by 33% or so. That would mean that for every 4 balls that would make it to the wall at a ballpark with normal grass, 3 would make it to the wall here (assuming all doubles make it to the wall and all singles get cut off).

could be...the Mariners paid who knows what to redo the turf for the first time in the Safecos existence, and bpj feels he has evidence of it killing the offense. And this after all the effort to make the field more hitter friendly. I just think that is a story. And it be right in Divish's wheelhouse, all he has to do is ask around the clubhouse. I would be curious what those that actually play on it think about it.

I never said it sounded ridiculous, I feel like if it was true it would have become an issue, like the batters eye.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

BABIP M's vs Opponent Home/Road

2000: .279/.319 ////.282/.298
2001: .313./.316 /// .250/.274
2002: .299/.315 ////.287/.285
2003: .296/.315 ////.258/.285
2004: .293/.321 ////.276/.302
2005: .299/.279 ////.288/.291
2006: .295/.304 ////.290/.309
2007: .311/.315 ////.315/.323
2008: .301/.288 ////.306/.313
2009: .294/.292 ////.273/.275
2010: .289/.275 ////.267/.296
2011: .277/.289 ////.276/.299
2012: .263/.287 ////.273/.295
2013: .281/.273 ////.309/.302
2014: .282/.296 ////.263/.292
2015: .301/.284 ////.280/.319
2016: .294/.301 ////.285/.302
2017: .308/.292 ////.272/.298
2018: .287/.302 ////.291/.300
2019: .294/.280 ////.281/.302
2020: .264/.291 ////.246/.304
2021: .261/.284 ////.273/.305

AVG:..290/.296////..279/.298

Conclusion: The M's only see a 6 point BABIP disparity in home vs away. Opponents see a 19 point BABIP drop hitting at SafeCo versus their home ballparks when playing the M's. If grass length was a real issue, you'd maybe expect to maybe see a higher disparity here but you don't. That said, the 2020 and 2021 M's have FAR AND AWAY the biggest home vs road BABIP disparity. You also see a massive dip in opponent BABIP at SafeCo in 2020/2021. Did the M's do something with the grass these years? Is it a result of massive shifting by both the M's and their opponents? I don't get it. It just seems like an anomaly to me.

Slugging M's Home/Road

2000: .408/.472
2001: .436/.454
2002: .397/.440
2003: .398/.422
2004: .385/.407
2005: .390/.393
2006: .416/.432
2007: .418/.432
2008: .398/.381
2009: .395/.409
2010: .322/.356
2011: .333/.363
2012: .331/.403
AVG:...386/.412
*Fences move in*
2013: .387/.392
2014: .370/.380
2015: .402/.430
2016: .431/.429
2017: .427/.420
2018: .392/.423
2019: .406/.441
2020: .360/.376
2021: .367/.401
AVG:...393/.410

Conclusion: It appears moving the fences in hasn't really done all that much. We see a 7 point slugging increase from 2013 to 2021 compared to 2000 to 2012. One problem here is that the M's had some historically terrible offenses form 2010-2012. You take those teams out of the equation and the M's slugged .404 at SafeCo from 2000-2009 which is 11 points better than the M's have slugged since the fences were moved in - not good. If you remove 2020/2021 from the fences moved in equation, the M's slugged .402 on average which is better, but still doesn't explain how moving the fences in could reduce power compared to 2000-2009. From 2013-2019 the M's slugged .416 on the road for a -14 point disparity home and away. From 2000-2009 the M's slugged .424 on the road for a disparity of -20.

Is the problem with SafeCo having very traditional field dimensions? Stadiums with short left porches, or odd fence angles like Boston, Houston, Arizona seem to yield more doubles/triples/homers - do you then do the same to SafeCo and build a team that analytically fits those dimensions? Seems like something that's not likely to happen.

Now, for those who think the M's should have a bigger advantage hitting at home because other teams put up astronomical numbers in their home ball parks, what would you propose? What would you do to SafeCo to give the M's an inherent advantage? I really don't have an answer other than: the M's simply have to decide that they're going to hit better at SafeCo. The M's have had solid power years at home when they've constructed quality rosters. The 2010-2012 and 2020-2021 M's rosters have something in common. They were shitty. You can't have a shitty lineup at SafeCo field and expect to win. So don't create a shitty lineup.

SafeCo is never going to be a hitters ballpark unless the player decide it to be. Simply put, build a great roster and expect that M's teams are mostly going to hit a few points better on the road than at home. There's not much you can do about it other than creating an advantage mentally.

[bpj]

Moving the fences in increased offense until they redid the grass.

Then, still more homeruns, but fewer singles and doubles.

Many people just assume the fences didn't get moved in enough without checking to see, but homeruns ARE up.

OPS is down because singles and doubles are down since the new grass was installed, not because homeruns are down. Seems counter-intuitive, because it is.

Fences moved in: OPS Home/Away
2013: .694/.696 (-.002 worse at home)
2014: .664/.687 (-.023)
2015: .715/.729 (-.014)
2016: .761/.752 (+.009)
2017: .761/.738 (+.023)
AVG: .719/.720 (-.001 average)

New Grass Installed
2018: .693/.749 (-.056)
2019: .721/.757 (-.036)
2020: .655/.693 (-.038)
2021: .663/.710 (-.047)
AVG: .683/.727 (-.044 average)

Doesn't look like much, but 43 points lower OPS on average since the new grass is literally going from a .700 OPS to a .657 OPS.

Compared to the previous five years that averaged out to -.001 which is like going from a .700 OPS to a .699 OPS.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

Moving the fences in increased offense until they redid the grass.

Then, still more homeruns, but fewer singles and doubles.

Many people just assume the fences didn't get moved in enough without checking to see, but homeruns ARE up.

OPS is down because singles and doubles are down since the new grass was installed, not because homeruns are down. Seems counter-intuitive, because it is.

True, but the M's have also constructed rosters more centered around power of late. You add Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz to a lineup you're just naturally going to hit more home runs. 2019 is a prime example of what you're talking about, but I don't think we draw the same conclusion. The M's hit 239 homers that year, but the roster was composed of a bunch of all-or-nothing guys and that's reflected in the .237 BA. I don't think that has as much to with grass as it does with the players on that team not being well rounded hitters.

When the M's have hit a lot of home runs they've simply had rosters centered around guys who hit home runs.

The 2000 M's hit .269 and had 198 dingers. The 2001 M's hit .288 and had 169 dingers. The 2002 M's hit .275 and had 152 dingers. The 2003 M's hit .271 and hit 139 dingers. All those teams were incredibly successful which tells me we need to build a more balanced offense than we've had and center our focus around dominant pitching. I don't think the all-or-nothing approach the M's have basically had since 2019 is doing themselves any favors.

[bpj]

Moving the fences in increased offense until they redid the grass.

Then, still more homeruns, but fewer singles and doubles.

Many people just assume the fences didn't get moved in enough without checking to see, but homeruns ARE up.

OPS is down because singles and doubles are down since the new grass was installed, not because homeruns are down. Seems counter-intuitive, because it is.

True, but the M's have also constructed rosters more centered around power of late. You add Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz to a lineup you're just naturally going to hit more home runs. 2019 is a prime example of what you're talking about, but I don't think we draw the same conclusion. The M's hit 239 homers that year, but the roster was composed of a bunch of all-or-nothing guys and that's reflected in the .237 BA. I don't think that has as much to with grass as it does with the players on that team not being well rounded hitters.

When the M's have hit a lot of home runs they've simply had rosters centered around guys who hit home runs.

The 2000 M's hit .269 and had 198 dingers. The 2001 M's hit .288 and had 169 dingers. The 2002 M's hit .275 and had 152 dingers. The 2003 M's hit .271 and hit 139 dingers. All those teams were incredibly successful which tells me we need to build a more balanced offense than we've had and center our focus around dominant pitching. I don't think the all-or-nothing approach the M's have basically had since 2019 is doing themselves any favors.

This isn't about home runs because we already know Safeco suppresses power to a degree, less since the fences came in.

The 2019 was all or nothing, and that team didn't get affected by ground balls as badly, probably because they actually hit it hard enough to make it through.

That year they had 107 HR at Home compared to 132 in Away games, still showing Seattle stomping out power.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

Moving the fences in increased offense until they redid the grass.

Then, still more homeruns, but fewer singles and doubles.

Many people just assume the fences didn't get moved in enough without checking to see, but homeruns ARE up.

OPS is down because singles and doubles are down since the new grass was installed, not because homeruns are down. Seems counter-intuitive, because it is.

True, but the M's have also constructed rosters more centered around power of late. You add Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz to a lineup you're just naturally going to hit more home runs. 2019 is a prime example of what you're talking about, but I don't think we draw the same conclusion. The M's hit 239 homers that year, but the roster was composed of a bunch of all-or-nothing guys and that's reflected in the .237 BA. I don't think that has as much to with grass as it does with the players on that team not being well rounded hitters.

When the M's have hit a lot of home runs they've simply had rosters centered around guys who hit home runs.

The 2000 M's hit .269 and had 198 dingers. The 2001 M's hit .288 and had 169 dingers. The 2002 M's hit .275 and had 152 dingers. The 2003 M's hit .271 and hit 139 dingers. All those teams were incredibly successful which tells me we need to build a more balanced offense than we've had and center our focus around dominant pitching. I don't think the all-or-nothing approach the M's have basically had since 2019 is doing themselves any favors.

This isn't about home runs because we already know Safeco suppresses power to a degree, less since the fences came in.

The 2019 was all or nothing, and that team didn't get affected by ground balls as badly, probably because they actually hit it hard enough to make it through.

That year they had 107 HR at Home compared to 132 in Away games, still showing Seattle stomping out power.

I mean that's all fine and dandy but I fail to see how speeding up the grass is going to give the Mariners the advantage at home that you see other teams having. The M's already have an advantage. That .246 BABIP in 2020 by opposing teams has got to be among the lowest ever, but it just doesn't look as sexy cause we hit for a low BABIP too.

When you look at the top 3 hitting teams in the American League they all have ballparks engineered to produce offense. Boston/Houston have really strange dimensions with extremely short porches. Toronto is basically the Kingdome 2.0. These teams have built rosters made to take advantage of that crap just like the M's did in the 90's.To me, that says the M's haven't moved the fences in enough and have to further account for the dense air of night games. I'd go 325 down both lines, 370 to left center, 395 to center, 370 to right center. We then build a team of moderate power guys who hit for high avg who can take those dimensions deep. As I said earlier though, unlikely to happen.

Because that's unlikely to happen, the M's have to build a team of Ty France's. Dude is a line drive God and takes what the defense gives him with regularity. He had a .349 BABIP at SafeCo.

Accept that you're going to hit less homers at SafeCo and produce in other ways should be the strategy. The M's can't go full Kyle Seager mode and swing for the fences at this ballpark. It's not the move. The early 2000's teams showed us this. Let the other teams come in and fail trying.

[bpj]

I don't think they will ever have a home field advantage.

But having their OPS be equal when at Home like 2013-2017 wouldn't be too much to ask.

T-Mobile clearly affects the home and away team significantly. And it's not just a lack of homeruns.

It's a lack of singles and doubles. Something is causing it.

Hard to say it's the air when it's not homeruns that are lagging at home.

11% fewer homeruns at home than on the road
18% fewer singles at home
33% fewer doubles at home

[D-train]

I don't think they will ever have a home field advantage.

But having their OPS be equal when at Home like 2013-2017 wouldn't be too much to ask.

T-Mobile clearly affects the home and away team significantly. And it's not just a lack of homeruns.

It's a lack of singles and doubles. Something is causing it.

Hard to say it's the air when it's not homeruns that are lagging at home.

Sorry I haven't read every post. Do our opponents have the same issues at T Mobile?

[bpj]

I don't think they will ever have a home field advantage.

But having their OPS be equal when at Home like 2013-2017 wouldn't be too much to ask.

T-Mobile clearly affects the home and away team significantly. And it's not just a lack of homeruns.

It's a lack of singles and doubles. Something is causing it.

Hard to say it's the air when it's not homeruns that are lagging at home.

Sorry I haven't read every post. Do our opponents have the same issues at T Mobile?

.777 OPS against our pitching in Away games
.684 OPS against our pitching in Home games

Mariners pitching gave up 99 HR in Home games and 98 HR in Away games, so, again, it's not homeruns that are making up the difference, it's fewer singles and doubles in T-Mobile.

Mariners batters were:

.710 OPS in Away games
.663 OPS at Home.