Virus Schmirus

[D-train]

I am at 513k cases right now vs. actual of about 450k but that gap is going to start to narrow. I think in the end I will be close though.

Yes that is very interesting. Have to wonder how many deaths were happening anyways that were classified as covid.

you were at 500,000 total cases on May 1 and i commented it seemed low to me

Yep we shall see. Good news for me is I have Vodka. Hit me up and I will ship some to you.

[Donn Beach]

vodka is expensive here, but there is cheap gin, i try to stick to the local beers...I can't figure out if we are supposed to be alcohol free or not. The actual stores have pulled it off their shelves. But the oki oki stores, those are little stores people run out of their houses still have it. My landlady has an oki oki and sells cold beer. Its basically having an extension to my refrigerator, she handles the beer supply. I wonder where she gets it? I figured it run out, she was selling off stock, but she keeps getting it

[godawgs28]

I am at 513k cases right now vs. actual of about 450k but that gap is going to start to narrow. I think in the end I will be close though.

Yes that is very interesting. Have to wonder how many deaths were happening anyways that were classified as covid.

Exactly. How many is a great question. This is becoming a little to political. They want to keep a lid on the economy for as long as possible. Field hospitals closing, to many respirators. Getting crazy

The goalposts keep moving.

They told us we had to shut the country down to "flatten the curve" and to "not overwhelm the hospitals"

The curve is flattening out. We are closing hospitals and taking the fake emergency ones down because there aren't enough patients.

So with that excuse gone, now we have to keep everything closed because....well because.......2nd waves....everyone will die...blah blah blah.

If we let them, the powers that be will keep 2 weeking, 30 daying this thing as long as they possibly can.

Its time to accept the risk, get people some immunity, mourn the people that will probably pass away (as they might from the flu or their cancer or their diabetes anyway) and get back to work.

[Donn Beach]

curve is flattening, seems something to be happy about...

NY talking about easing restrictions, though I haven't seen what the next phase is supposed to look like

With transmission still widespread, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York said Thursday that he thought the city could move as early as mid-May to the next stage: one with low-level spread of the virus, in which cases could be more easily traced.

“We can say that it’s time to start planning for the next phase very overtly,” Mr. de Blasio said at a news conference.

Now Philadelphia looking sick, that is the thing about generalizing over the entire country, one area improves but somewhere else could just be beginning the curve.

In Pennsylvania, health officials on Thursday announced 1,989 new cases for a total of 18,228, the largest single-day jump so far. The number of cases in the state has doubled in a week, up from around 7,000 on April 2. The number of known deaths has also surged more than threefold in the same period, to 338 from 90.

At a White House briefing on Wednesday night, Vice President Mike Pence said Philadelphia had emerged as “an area of particular concern,” though local officials have pushed back against characterizing the city as a hot spot.

[bpj]

Yes that is very interesting. Have to wonder how many deaths were happening anyways that were classified as covid.

you were at 500,000 total cases on May 1 and i commented it seemed low to me

Yep we shall see. Good news for me is I have Vodka. Hit me up and I will ship some to you.

I remember you saying between 500-600,000 cases and 10-15k deaths, so don't take Donn at his word and give him any free vodka yet.

It seemed dead on so I began splitting the uprights and assuming 550k cases with 13k deaths.

I have a feeling the death count is likely even a bit exaggerated with the disappearance of many other types of death lately, i.e. all being classified as corona deaths.

[Donn Beach]

that is what was posted...28th actually

My initial was 10k deaths but that was based on 1.7% mortality rate. Its now over 2% so my 600k positives projection could lead to ~15k deaths. I am now tracking more like 500k though so somewhere in the 10-15k range. We are currently at about 189k positives and just over 4k dead.

that was my reply...

500,000 total cases?...out of a population of 300,000,000?...seems pretty low to me

that is your reply

Seems pretty low / isn't low.

Doesnt seem low to me, seems exactly in line with what's happening.

They're numbers. They can't "seem" anything. Dt's model is snappin necks and cashing checks compared to these fearmongers whose job it is to keep you at home.

When their models make no sense, they make no sense. And they make no sense. They're not playing out.

[bpj]

I have zero trust in the death counts, especially as being the cause of all of them.

Anybody else feeling that way yet?

DT's model has been infinitely more accurate than the experts.

[Donn Beach]

I haven't followed it much at all really, that is, really focused on the States. In terms of the UW model, i don't think deaths was really the main factor, it could be that the media focused on deaths. If you look at it, there is an emphasis on health facilities. There is a huge variance in predicted deaths. i think its at 30,000 now which is still well within the original model.

[bpj]

Well within what original model? The one that said millions of deaths or dtrains model which said 10-15k?

What's happening is the actual cases are right in line with what dt said, but as he said, the death rate was the variable.

As it turns out it is a variable because they are classifying people who die with the virus as covid deaths, when only a small percentage actually die of the virus. Car accident, but had the virus? Covid death. Etc.

450,000 cases with 16,000 deaths (many of which have been classified covid but were not covid caused).

[D-train]

you were at 500,000 total cases on May 1 and i commented it seemed low to me

Yep we shall see. Good news for me is I have Vodka. Hit me up and I will ship some to you.

I remember you saying between 500-600,000 cases and 10-15k deaths, so don't take Donn at his word and give him any free vodka yet.

It seemed dead on so I began splitting the uprights and assuming 550k cases with 13k deaths.

I have a feeling the death count is likely even a bit exaggerated with the disappearance of many other types of death lately, i.e. all being classified as corona deaths.

That what was when death rates were at 1.7%. Since they have doubled to include thing like attributing deaths to the virus to things like a guy getting into a head on car collision and the cops finding an empty Corona in his back seat. "Chalk this one up to the Corona!"